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UFC Vegas 62 FanDuel Breakdown

by | Oct 14, 2022 | FanDuel

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Two of the three fights that were written up last week ended up on the optimal, and the one that missed was the fight that I stated I was the least confident in finishing to begin with. This week we will try to improve upon that level of accuracy and give you three fights to target for your FanDuel lineups for UFC Vegas 62.

These fights should likely be avoided in cash contests unless otherwise noted as this write up is geared much more for tournament play. These fights are going to come with a high level of variance, but should score impressively high in either direction with the win. 

Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 62. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP. 

 

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-800 FDGTD)

DUSKO TODOROVIC ($18) vs. JORDAN WRIGHT ($13)

This fight is a coin flip essentially. The one guarantee is that the winner will score high because it doesn’t stand a chance to get out of the second round. It most likely will finish inside the first. Which direction it will go is definitely up for debate.

Dusko Todorovic has seen four of his last five fights finish. Two of those were knockout wins, and two were knockout losses. Dusko averages a little over five significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 54%. The concerning aspect of Todorovic’s striking numbers is that his striking defense is only coming in at 47%, so while he has a slightly positive striking differential, he is very hittable.  

On the other side of the cage is Jordan Wright, the Beverly Hills Ninja. Unfortunately for Wright he is a bit lackluster in the art of invisibility as his opponents are routinely able to find his chin with an embarrassing 36% striking defense. Wright’s output is a bit higher however, with over seven significant strikes per minute, but his differential is negative, so make sure to factor that in as well. 

Ultimately this one will come down to who gets caught first. Whichever fighter wins will surely score at least a second round knockout type of score – most likely a first round.

 

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-700 FDGTD)

PETE RODRIGUEZ ($23) vs. MIKE JACKSON ($8)

This fight is not quite the mystery that the last one is. The smart side to be on this one is likely Pete Rodriguez. That being said, if Jackson can manage to survive and get a decision, he would be well worth his salary as well. To give you an idea how the books have this one broken down, Rodriguez is -300 to win by knockout and Jackson is +800.

Rodriguez is coming off of a knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena in his UFC debut, but he is a high pressure brawler that will create problems for many opponents. In truth Maddalena was probably a big ask for someone with only four pro fights and making their debut. This fight should be more favorable to Rodriguez, and he will likely make quick work of Jackson.

Mike Jackson has proven time and time again that he doesn’t really want to be a fighter. He did manage to come away with a DQ win on a groin kick in his last fight, but that was clearly a gift in a fight he was losing. Jackson could survive however, and if he does and manages to extend this fight his score could be well worth his salary. If he manages to sneak a decision or pull off a late finish against an opponent with untested cardio, then he might make you rich. Playing Jackson is ridiculously risky however.

 

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (+150 FDGTD)

ALEXA GRASSO ($21) vs. VIVIANE ARAUJO ($10)

While this fight is not favored to finish, it is a must target. I would say this fight is more important to target than some of the other fights on the card heavily favored to finish (Brito/Alexander or Menifield/Cirkunov). This is a five round main event and you are going to see this fight go one of three ways. 

The first potential outcome of this fight has Viviane Araujo running out of gas in about the third or fourth round. This can lead to a late finish for Grasso or at the very least two to three dominant rounds towards the end of the fight.

The second potential outcome for this fight is an early finish from Viviane Araujo, which is probably not likely, but certainly could happen as Viviane has solid power when it comes to the women’s divisions, and could potentially take many of the early rounds even if she doesn’t score the finish.

The last potential outcome for this fight will be a decision with five rounds of scoring with the strike heavy scoring method FanDuel uses. Who wins in this scenario is up for grabs in my opinion if Araujo’s cardio holds up, if it doesn’t it will likely be Grasso. That being said, Araujo will likely score great for the salary even in a loss for your cash and single entry contests.

 

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.

Josh Allen

Contributing Analyst

Hey everyone! My name is Josh Allen, no relation to the FNP guys. I am a proud father, freelance web designer, and future gulag spades champion. I am a fan of the NFL and the UFC. I do a little part time analysis work for the latter. Take whatever you read from me with a grain of salt as I am far more fan than anything else. Do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not a financial advisor and take no responsibility for your plays.

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