The plays that I wrote up last week were outstanding. Volkanovski, Turner, and Barberena were all some of the highest scoring fighters on the slate. The salary play of Gabe Green turned out pretty solid as well, although he didn’t win. Unfortunately for me I used Muniz and Strickland as the missing pieces in my lineup, and as such lost basically everything I entered. If you picked better than me however you definitely won some money using the fighters in the write up. Now I turn my focus to UFC Vegas 58 and look to bounce back some.
This slate has numerous wrestlers available on it, but only one that gets numerous takedowns per fight however. Beyond that I will be looking to the strikers with knockout upside and adopt an all or nothing approach to my entries this week.
Below you will see each of my favorite plays for UFC Vegas 58, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below and I will do my best to answer them!
$20 PLUS RANGE
SAID NURMAGOMEDOV – $22
The name could have you fooled, but this is the striking Nurmagomedov. Said has three finishes under his belt in the UFC, two by knockout and one by submission. He is a complete fighter, except that he struggles a bit to get people to the ground. The silver lining is that his striking is good; he really doesn’t need to get the fight to the mat.
I doubt we see a finish here, but I like Said Nurmagomedov to score well based on volume. Because of the doubt I have for the finish I will likely not be using him as my MVP this week. He should win this fight pretty decisively however, which makes him a great piece for my lineup.
My estimation on score this week for Nurmagomedov is around 90-100 points. So while that works great for me in small field single entry contests, you might be better off looking to someone else in the salary range with more finish upside for multi-entry contests.
$16 TO $19 RANGE
RICKY TURCIOS – $19
Turcios is the kind of fighter that I love to target. Significant striking volume is great on FanDuel because you don’t have to worry about control time being scored, or those little love taps against the cage or on the ground. This means Turcios is scoring for me each time he throws, and then if he manages to find a knockout, that's a bonus.
My expectation here for Turcios is that he finds his way to about 100 FanDuel points in a very active striking decision. He did shoot a couple takedowns in his last fight as well, which would be nice to see here as well, but I am not holding my breath for it. His opponent, Aiemann Zahabi, doesn’t really look to get the fight to the ground and is low volume in the striking department as well. He does have power, but I believe the sheer volume from Turcios is going to overwhelm Zahabi.
Turcios is likely to be one of the lower owned fighters in this salary range as well as most people will likely spend up for the heavy favorites or look for the value right beneath this price point. If Turcios manages to get a finish it will be a red panty night in the Allen household.
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$12 TO $15 RANGE
ARMEN PETROSYAN – $14
This play is actually a piggy back off of the Turcios play and one that I am not sure that I will be making myself. This is something that I would be more personally invested in if I was entering large field contests or multiple entry stuff. For me however, in small field single entry contests, I don’t really need this play and may just elect to grab another fighter at the $16 price point.
My expectation for this slate is that Borralho is going to be a heavy target on this slate because of the show he put on in his last contest with the grappling – coupled with Petrosyan’s terrible takedown defense. Rightfully so, that makes sense. For FanDuel however if Borralho just gets a takedown or two and doesn’t do much with it, that doesn’t score well. Petrosyan is a very adept striker and if he can manage to stay on his feet, or find his feet in the event of a takedown, he could win this fight handily. If that happens this play would be very advantageous due to the leverage it provides over the Borralho entries.
Probably my least confident write up on this week’s slate, but I think I have done a good job explaining exactly why – and for who – the risk would be worth exploring.
UNDER $12 RANGE
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS – $10
This price point seems almost criminal. I understand that Fiziev is the shiny new thing with a ton of buzz, but seeing RDA priced at $10 after a great performance in this last fight seems wrong. Especially considering that RDA likely has the power advantage, and certainly has the wrestling and grappling advantage.
I think it is also worth mentioning that over his long career, Dos Anjos doesn’t really get knocked out often. In fact he hasn’t been knocked out since 2016, and 2008 before that. This makes Fiziev a questionable play for me as I believe his likely path is a decision.
For $10, give me RDA and his five rounds of scoring. This should be the most owned punt play on the card however, so plan accordingly.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content!
