Welp, my Fanduel lineup went from one extreme to the next. The plays for UFC Vegas 58 were a complete dud. Even the one fighter that I wrote up that won didn’t score anything worth talking about. Everyone else performed miserably. Just a terrible week all around. Thankfully I felt that it was going to be a terrible week and played very light.
UFC Long Island isn’t shaping up to look much better in my opinion. This is a terrible slate for DFS with numerous fights that could easily go either way. The separating factor between lineups this week is going to be all about which dogs win. There are just so many that COULD win that it is tough to really be confident in anything. In order to play however, picks must be made.
Below you will see each of my favorite plays for UFC Long Island, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below and I will do my best to answer them!
$20 PLUS RANGE
AMANDA LEMOS – $23
I know that you probably have been hearing that you should Amanda Lemos all week long, and maybe you should. Here is my rationale for the play however. I feel as though this slate is loaded with uncertainty. While Lemos could produce a lackluster score, her winning is about the ONLY thing on this slate that I am certain of. I have stated before, I only really play small field single-entry contests on FanDuel, and for those, Lemos is a great play.
The only place that Waterson is potentially better than Lemos is when it comes to wrestling, and to be fair, that is only by default because Lemos doesn’t really wrestle. On the feet it should be a Lemos light show, and I am fairly certain she wins with the fight on the ground as well. Waterson means a ton to this sport, but her time is done, she is finished.
While it definitely is a long shot because Waterson has never been knocked out, I actually think Lemos has the potential to finish here. The most likely outcome is a three round decision however, and in that case I expect about 80-90 points from Lemos (again I know this is low, but it's guaranteed as far as I am concerned). I am not even close to sure that anyone else in this salary range even wins their fight.
$16 TO $19 RANGE
JACK SHORE – $17
The decision between Ricky Simon and Jack Shore has been one that I have debated back and forth with all week long. It didn’t get any easier today when the salaries came out and they had Ricky Simon at only $13. Believe me, it took a ton of restraint not to jump on that and ignore what the tape and my eyes are telling me.
Jack Shore is the superior grappler in this contest is what my eyes tell me. My eyes have been wrong and failed me before, but I think they are seeing this one pretty clearly. If the two wrestlers/grapplers negate each other and this one stays standing, I actually think that Ricky Simon has the advantage there. So it could be a tough win for Shore if that happens.
Until proven otherwise however, Shore is the guy to ride with as he has been putting up monster scores and winning fights. I hope this isn’t the week that changes.
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$12 TO $15 RANGE
DA-UN JUNG – $15
Da-Un Jung is a solid boxer/wrestler going in to fight Dustin Jacoby, who is a very established high level striker. Unfortunately for Jacoby, his takedown defense is sub 60% and Jung averages over two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes.
Add into that that Jung is a capable striker, and while not on Jacoby’s level most likely, is more than adequate to keep himself in a fight until he can secure those takedowns that I am hoping for. That in my opinion makes him about the only clear cut dog play on this slate for me.
I am hoping to see about three to four takedowns and potentially a finish once he gets the fight to the ground. Jung has a shot to win by submission in that scenario in my opinion.
UNDER $12 RANGE
HERBERT BURNS – $10
So there is the big layoff that is the constant elephant in the room when it comes to Burns. Then there is talk about a poor gas tank which could be somewhat valid as well. Finally there is the fact that he lost the last one by knockout, which definitely happened.
Despite all of that, Burns has the safest floor of any fighter in this group that also has potential for a finish or high score. Dalcha could also be in the same boat, but I think Burns skill set makes him more valuable.
Algeo has never finished a fight in the UFC, and I think at the very least we get three solid rounds from Herbert Burns here while he hunts for his own finish, most likely on the ground. Algeo has never been finished either, but he has been taken down two or more times in every single fight he has been in, so the opportunities will be there.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content!
