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UFC Vegas 57 was an extreme let down on the FanDuel side, but things balanced themselves out with a solid DraftKings cash performance. This week with UFC 276 I am looking to find that retribution and get back to scores from two weeks ago. This card is a great one for single entry contests which are my favorite, because there are tons of big names that people will surely be rostering – even when it might not make the most sense to do so.

The focus on this slate for me will be the middle salary ranges as the top salaries are pretty cut and dry. I know what I am getting there, and to be more specific I know what I am avoiding there. The mid range is going to be where the money is made – or lost. 

Below you will see each of my favorite plays for UFC 276, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below and I will do my best to answer them!

 

$20 PLUS RANGE

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI – $22

Volkanovski is the best choice on this card in the upper salary ranges, and it really isn’t close. Sure Israel Adesanya will win, but he won’t score like Volkanovski. Sean O’Malley can surely score like Volkanovski, but he is facing a significant step up in competition and only has three rounds to work. Andre Muniz might get an early submission and score lovely as well, but he is largely a submission or bust fighter as he isn’t as polished of a striker as his opponent is. That makes Alexander Volkanovski the clear cut choice in the high salary range. 

Volkanovski has won two decisions over Max Holloway already, although one is fairly disputed by many fans, and to be honest he is just getting better. On the other side of the cage, I am beginning to wonder when all of the wear and tear Max Holloway has endured over the years is going to start taking its toll. 

This might be a hot take, but I think that this might be the one where Volkanovski gets a finish over the unfinishable. That still wouldn’t stop me from stacking this fight if I played cash contests on FanDuel however. This fight is made for a stack.

 

$16 TO $19 RANGE

JALIN TURNER – $17

Before I get into the reasons that I like Jalin Turner this week, please allow me to just state how much I love Brad Riddell. Riddell has been one of my favorite low priced guys to grab in DFS contests since he entered the UFC. Unfortunately I think the odds are too stacked against him in this one.

Jalin Turner has a massive size and reach advantage in this fight, and unlike many other fighters, Turner knows how to use that length and does a great job staying on the outside. That significant size difference will also complicate the takedowns for Riddell, which would be an area where he might have held an advantage.

Add into that the fact that Riddell is coming off of knockout to Rafael Fiziev, who may be more polished of a striker than Turner, but certainly falls short in the power department. Finally the last thing to consider for me is that Riddell doesn’t have a finish win in the UFC. He just doesn’t finish people. That means that I will get three rounds of scoring from Turner regardless, and then have all of the finish upside in the fight for just a couple dollars more than taking the Riddell side. No brainer.

 

$12 TO $15 RANGE

BRYAN BARBERENA – $14

This pick is about volume. Barberena has put out loads and loads of it in his last several fights. I would say that Lawler could potentially knock him out, but assuming that doesn’t happen and the fight goes the full three rounds – I just don’t believe that Lawler can keep pace with Barberena.

My expectation here is to get an incredibly active three round decision from Barberena, with the potential for a knockout along the way as well. This salary range is somewhat weak unfortunately and the only other reasonable play would be Alex Pereira at $15 if you happen to be on that side of the fight. I am not on the Pereira side however, so for me Barberena is my guy. 

 

UNDER $12 RANGE

GABE GREEN – $10

I have seen many people not supporting this pick, and I get it. Ian Garry is the new golden boy for the UFC and fans tend to ride with those kinds of fighters until they get a reason not to. I believe Gabe Green will be the reason for many to fall off this hype train.

Gabe Green sets an insane pace, and his granite chin has been evidenced by his fight with Daniel Rodriguez and his early knock down against Yohan Lainesse. After seeing Green take that shot from Lainesse, I have no doubt he can take a few from Ian Garry, and I think the constant forward pressure will be a problem for Garry who was already rocked in his UFC opener by someone doing the same.

If Green can pull this out he will be the play of the card in a salary range that really doesn’t lend too many other options.

 

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content!

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