I happen to be very dialed in to the fights I want to target this week, so the write up for the value plays this week is going to include a couple actual fights where I am looking to get exposure to both fighters across my entries, or just roster the one that I can afford after tinkering with a few potential lineups.
If you need a refresher on the core plays article, you can click here to take a look at it. It was fairly balanced, so I should have quite a few options to choose from in this list today. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the rest of the card below!
$9000 AND OVER
MUHAMMAD MOKAEV – $9100
The conversation around Muhammad Mokaev’s experience coming into this fight has been center stage. Are we saying he is inexperienced with only five fights, or are we saying he is somewhat experienced by adding his amateur fights which brings him closer to thirty total fights. For me, I personally believe that there isn’t much difference between amateur fights and low level professional fights, so for me – a fight is a fight.
Mokaev has the wrestling skills and the striking skills advantage in this matchup and I think he could easily score really high. I am also not opposed to considering him for cash as well, as he would save a few hundred dollars off of Pimblett’s or Topuria’s price tag which may allow me to move up somewhere else.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
SERGEI PAVLOVICH – $9000
If it hadn’t been such a long time since we have seen Pavlovich fight he would be a lock for my tournament lineups this week. The knockout potential here is through the roof. Unfortunately it has been that long, and we really don’t know if we are still getting the same production in the octagon that we saw the last two times out.
The potential for a big score is here without question however, and his opponent has proven to have somewhat of a glass jaw over the years. I say ‘somewhat’ because Abdurakhimov's list of opponents is actually pretty impressive. The experience is not on Sergei Pavlovich’s side and that is my only cause for concern in this fight and it may limit my exposure to him.
TOURNAMENT
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
CORY MCKENNA – $8800
This is a pick that I am a bit tepid on. I do believe that Cory McKenna wins this fight, in fact I think she wins this easily. My only concern is the price point, because at this price point she needs a big score to be worth it.
There is definitely a world where she wins by stoppage, most likely a submission if she gets the finish. Unfortunately there is also a world where she wins by decision and even a world in a far off land where Elise Reed is able to keep this fight upright and steals a decision herself. Due to the risk, I am just considering this play for tournaments with not a ton of exposure.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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MIKE GRUNDY – $8500 / MAKWAN AMIRKHANI – $7700
I have been burned twice before playing Mike Grundy. He is very likely one fight away from being added to my list of fighters that I will never touch again. In this fight however, he is fighting someone that I consider to be very much like him.
Both of these fighters are grapplers that have potential for big scores. I would actually argue that Amirkhani is probably the more complete fighter as well, with more submission upside. I think Grundy’s only real advantage is wrestling.
The area where both of these fighters fall short is cardio. So for that reason I definitely want exposure to this fight, with either fighter really, because I fully expect there to be a stoppage due to cardio in one direction or the other.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ARNOLD ALLEN – $8000
This is another fight where I was shocked to see the salaries align the way that they did. I get that Hooker has faced much better competition and that will almost always come with a few losses, but I just personally think this salary distribution is disrespectful to Arnold Allen.
Allen is obviously, and without question, the better grappler. Many would give the striking advantage to Hooker, but I really think that is skewed based on activity. Hooker is a much more active striker than Allen and does have a slight advantage in his accuracy, but is much more hittable than Allen.
I expect this fight to be fairly one sided and produce a score in the range of eighty five fantasy points. If Allen does manage to get a finish that would be a bonus, but I really just expect a takedown heavy gameplan and Allen coasting to a decision.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
UNDER $8000
LUANA CAROLINA – $7800
Please feel free to ignore this part of the write up, this pick is based mostly on two things. Number one, this is a female fight, and I notoriously look for female fights to find value on my cash entries because they will generally go to decision – which gives me a chance to have picked correctly but usually still get three rounds of scoring even if I didn’t.
Second, her opponent, Molly McCann, has a nickname of “meatball”. I just can’t get behind that. I know the science of nickname selection really doesn’t factor into the fight itself, but I believe that it factors into the fighter’s general state of mind. At some point she allowed someone to call her “meatball” and it stuck – she revealed in an interview that she was called that because she smelled like them while she was working at a Subway sandwich shop. For me this translates to being willing to allow yourself to be bullied.
I would pick against that every single time. It is just not the mindset that I believe translates into success at the highest level of fighting. Carolina might not win, she isn’t very good, but I expect her to at the very least go three rounds and get a decent score for cash games and potentially steal a decision win.
CASH ONLY
PAUL CRAIG – $7500
This play might be the biggest risk vs. reward play on the card. His opponent, Nikita Krylov, is the much better striker in this contest. But, and it is a rather large but, if Paul Craig can get this fight to the mat he stands a really solid chance to win via submission. He has proven that is his world.
Due to the risk I would certainly not advocate for Craig to be included in any cash lineups, but for tournament contests he would immediately be in the optimal with a win.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
KAZULA VARGAS – $6800
This is less a selection for Rodrigo Vargas, and more a selection against Paddy Pimblett.There are a ton of great selections on this card in the mid-range, but not too many at the very bottom of the salary range that I feel comfortable with.
So if I absolutely had to make a punt play in tournaments due to salary, it would be by going against Pimblett. Not because I think Vargas will actually win, but because I would just be elated if he did.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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