I am feeling really good about the core plays this week. If you have missed that article you can read it HERE. Beyond that however, it is time for me to go value hunting to fill out the remainder of both my cash and tournament lineups on DraftKings.
Once again we have a pretty low key card with not a ton of star power, but there certainly are some really solid fights scheduled that will give us a great opportunity to find value. I am definitely more interested in the card this week than I was last weekend.
This particular card has a ton of value in the mid-range area on DraftKings. From about 8700 and down is loaded with fighters that can put up great numbers. That will make it hard to squeeze in fighters near the top of the salary range. Basically this will force this week to come down to what last week essentially did also, to Romanov or not to Romanov – that is the question. Let’s take a look at who is available for this event;
$9000 AND UP
ALEXANDR ROMANOV – $9600
Guess we will try this again. Nothing new to report from the last write up, Romanov is still a throwback to the time of vicious ground and pound within the UFC, and he adds in significant submission skills as well. Romanov is probably my favorite up and coming heavyweight, and I really will be doing all I can to get some exposure to him this week in both cash and tournament contests. Hopefully his opponent doesn’t get the squirts again pre-fight, although I must say when faced with the idea of being across from Romanov in a cage, I totally understand.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
NATAN LEVY – $9000
Despite the outcome of his last performance, Natan Levy is a very talented prospect. He just happened to run into the takedown heavy buzz saw that is Rafa Garcia over his last few fights. In that fight, despite being taken down by Garcia seven times, Levy landed three takedowns of his own and has great submission skills to make the takedowns that much more dangerous.
Assuming Levy can get back on track, which seems to me like it should be the case, he will score well with takedowns here and control time. Should he be able to submit his opponent that will just be the cherry on top. Mike Breeden does have an 81% takedown defense, but that is somewhat skewed in my opinion due to a small sample size. Not confident enough to take a shot in cash with Levy, but he is definitely worth a bit of exposure in tournaments.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
GINA MAZANY – $8900
It feels very strange putting Gina Mazany’s name here, and believe me I understand that she is anything but safe. For tournament purposes however she has the potential to post a huge score with either numerous takedowns and control time, or even potentially a first round finish if she gets Shanna Young into a bad spot early.
My intention is to keep my exposure to Mazany minimal however, as she is anything but reliable. Really neither fighter here is reliable as far as I am concerned, but Mazany at least has a ton of upside for a massive score. It's a shot in the dark, but one that I will take in a few lineups at least.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
DARREN ELKINS – $8600
Darren Elkins is one of those fighters that you love just because he goes out and gives 100% in every minute of every fight. Sometimes he wins them, and sometimes he loses them, but it is always a world class effort. As a fan a fighter like that is very easy to appreciate.
Elkins has decent power in his hands, solid wrestling skills, and fairly decent grappling as well. It is my expectation that he goes into this fight and gets takedowns, racks up control time, and might even stumble across a submission. His floor is fairly safe as I do not believe in Tristan Connelly to finish him even in the event that Elkins loses the fight.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
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FRANCISCO FIGUEIREDO – $8000
Unfortunately for Francisco Figueiredo, he is stuck living in the shadow of his more popular sibling. Fortunately for me, that shadow has somehow managed to allow him to be the lower priced fighter in a fight he should surely be priced higher in.
Figueiredo is a solid wrestler, and an adequate striker. He is coming into this fight with a much better pedigree in my opinion, and the only questionable area of his game for me is his output. He does tend to be very low volume in the striking department, but as long as he is getting takedowns (which I believe he will as he pleases in this fight) then the output is less concerning to me. I believe Figueiredo to be a safe play for cash, but I am not exactly sold on his worth for tournaments here. There is a chance for him to be finished to be fair, but I just don’t believe that it will happen.
CASH ONLY
UNDER $8000
MARLON VERA – $7900
Marlon Vera seems to be the people’s pick for this fight. Personally, I just can’t see it. That being said, it couldn’t hurt to sprinkle him into some lineups here and there. Font, while I firmly believe will win this fight easily, is very unlikely to finish Chito, so that makes Vera a safe play for cash.
Then add into the mix that if there are any questions about Font’s chin (I don’t have them, but many seem to) then Chito wouldn’t be horrible to take a flier on for tournaments as well. For me the exposure would be minimal at best however.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
GERALD MEERSCHAERT – $7400
GM3 is set to matchup with Jotko at UFC Vegas 53 and again I think we have a decent play here for cash with upside. Meerschaert would be fine in cash because the likelihood of Jotko finishing him is slim to none, Jotko is a decision king.
There is an off chance that Meerschaert would be able to catch Jotko in a submission however, so that makes him a fairly obvious salary play. The outcome would likely either be a big score from a submission or around 30-40 points in a decisive loss by decision and for cash that can easily be absorbed at only $7400.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
CARLOS CANDELARIO – $7000
This is definitely a punt play, so I am not expecting much here, but in order to fit some of the higher priced fighters into my lineup I will need to be willing to take a chance on a lower priced fighter here and there.
The biggest concern I have with Candelario is that his takedown defense is pretty bad, and if Tairo is smart, he would get this fight to the mat early and often. Candelario could stand a chance however if he keeps forward pressure, manages to stuff the takedowns attempts, and puts the pressure on the debuting fighter.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
JOANDERSON BRITO – $6900
This is my favorite punt play on the card. Joanderson Brito has the potential to win this fight in my opinion. Is it likely? Definitely not, and mostly due to lack of gas, but if Brito can manage to be the one achieving his takedowns in a fight featuring two fighters with sub-par takedown defense, then he stands a pretty solid chance.
The one thing I do not see happening here is an early finish for his opponent, Andre Fili. A late finish is certainly possible, but if Brito can manage to get a few takedowns along the way he might return a pretty decent score for $6900 with a shot to win. Really can’t beat that when it comes to punt plays.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
After the misery that was UFC Vegas 52, I am really hoping to bounce back for UFC Vegas 53. One thing is for sure, it really can’t get worse than last week was for me. I expect to see a ton of close fights this week and that makes for an exciting time in my opinion. I wish everyone success this week, unless you are a Marlon Vera fan – and then I hope you stub your toe and step on a pile of Legos.
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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