Finally back from break, and it feels like it has been forever since I have written one of these things. That being said, we are kicking off an entire summer of straight UFC fight weeks, so I am sure we will find our way back into the swing of things.
This week we have UFC Vegas 74 which is being headlined by Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi. The rest of the card is filled with very close matchups that are going to leave a ton of people very let down when it comes to their lineups and their bets. Finding the fights that score well on a card with almost no fights heavily favored to end inside the distance will be the challenge.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 74. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-225 FDNGTD)
DANIEL SANTOS ($20) vs. JOHNNY MUNOZ JR. ($11)
This fight was rescheduled from a few weeks ago due to an abscess on Daniel Santos’ knee. Apparently that is now healed and the fight is back on. We have Daniel Santos who is a fun, move forward, chute to box fighter going against one of the most disappointing lock of the week’s of all time in Johnny Munoz Jr.
Daniel Santos is all about forward pressure, which is likely going to be his best weapon in this fight against Munoz. Just like all Chute to Box fighters from Brazil, he doesn’t seem to know how to let off the gas peddle. Santos has impressive striking and solid power, but can struggle at times with his takedown defense. Thankfully when he is taken down he works to get back up quickly and doesn’t accept bottom position.
Johnny Munoz Jr. is wrestler that seems to dislike forward pressure and fighting off of his backfoot. That could have something to do with how much more difficult it is to shoot when you are backing up, but regardless the reason it is not his favorite thing. Munoz will need to get this fight to the ground to have a decent shot at a win in my opinion, but more so he will need to keep it there as Santos is dangerous at any point in the fight.
Personally I am firmly on the Santos side of this fight. I recognize that the wrestling might be a hang up for him, but after seeing Munoz get starched by the one inch punch in his fight with Tony Gravely – I just can’t pick him to win anything in good faith.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-200 FDNGTD)
JAMIE MULLARKEY ($23) vs. MUHAMMADJON NAIMOV ($8)
Originally Jamie Mullarkey was going to be a sacrifice to Guram this week, but Guram had some VISA issues and has been replaced by Muhammadjon Naimov as a last minute replacement. Unfortunately with how FanDuel works, this just means that everything gets shuffled around, but that is probably the fair way to do things.
Jamie Mullarkey is a wrestler that has fallen in love with striking. That doesn’t mean he won’t wrestle, he did in his last fight in fact, but it is not his preferred style of fighting. Mullarkey likes to bang, and for the most part it has worked out for him. The only exception being the fight against Jailin Turner.
Muhammadjon Naimov is stepping in on short notice and he likes to strike as well, despite also having solid wrestling skills. Due to both guys enjoying the war, this should be a fire fight until the party getting the poor end of the exchanges decides that it shouldn’t be anymore.
I have a really hard time coming to grips with paying up to $23 for Jamie Mullarkey, especially against a guy that I think stylistically could present a bit of a problem for Jamie. I would feel a lot more comfortable taking the dog shot at only $8. Of course Jamie could find a finish and then I will be wishing that I paid less attention to the dollar value and more attention to the caliber of fighter.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-225 FDNGTD)
ALEX CACERES ($18) vs. DANIEL PINEDA ($12)
I absolutely love me some Bruce LeRoy. He is just one of those lower level UFC fighters that I get excited to watch each and everytime he fights. This time around he is fighting Daniel Pineda who has a reputation for being very dangerous early and then fading as the fight goes on.
The reality is that Pineda is very live early on and for only $12 I could 100% get behind the idea of taking a shot on him. For me though, as a fanboy in the first degree, its Alex Caceres for me. In fact it is one of the plays on this card I am most excited for. I believe it will be either a second or third round submission after Pineda slows down.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
