Last week for UFC 276 I managed to lose everything I entered. It does happen from time to time, and I guess I deserved it after the week I had prior on FanDuel. I was clinging to cash entries right up until Sean Strickland decided to strike with a champion level kickboxer, and then got to watch it all circle the drain.
Unfortunately, UFC Vegas 58 does not appear to be a great bounce back week, so I am going to be playing really light this week. The salaries on this slate are just really strange and I have a feeling that the winning lineups are going to be all over the place with a ton of leftover salary. Knowing the cards coming up soon, I don’t want to try too hard on a slate I don’t really care for from a fantasy perspective (this one) and end up further underwater than I would be otherwise. Of course if my picks are spot on and I could have won truck loads of money by playing heavier, that will also be somewhat unsettling.
All of that said, the show must go on, so below you will find my favorite picks for UFC Vegas 58. If you have any questions about your lineup or just want some feedback, please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks and someone will get you that help asap!
So here we go with my favorite plays for UFC Vegas 58;
CASH PLAY
RONNIE LAWRENCE – $8400
It is not a normal occurrence that I select a fighter this low on the salary scale as my cash play of the week, but here we are. Like I stated above, this is a really odd week with the way that the salaries were distributed in my opinion. Ronnie Lawrence is a wrestling monster, he is absolutely relentless. More importantly, Lawrence scores a ton of points with that relentless wrestling.
His opponent, Saidyokub Kakhramonov, is also a wrestler and many people are choosing to roll with him this week because of that. When you take a look at the analytics though, it is pretty clear that Kakhramonov isn’t as efficient as Lawrence with his wrestling nor as active with his striking.
For me that makes Ronnie Lawrence the clear cut easiest pick on the slate. In fact it feels a little dirty to be able to get such a high scoring fighter at just $8400. This was an insta-roster for me, and I look forward to him achieving his average of just over nine takedowns per fifteen minutes.
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TOURNAMENT PLAY
TRESEAN GORE – $8300
Tresean Gore is coming off a loss to TUF winner Bryan Battle. Tresean Gore is a wrestler that also is a solid striker. Judging by some of the analysts I have seen break this fight down this week, I think they forgot that Gore is a wrestler. In fact he was widely considered the second best wrestler in that season’s TUF house, behind Andre Petroski.
His opponent this week, Cody Brundage, is also a wrestler – but just like above the analytics paint us a really clear picture. Gore is harder to take down, and more accurate when he attempts takedowns. Gore should win this wrestling battle, and despite having a negative striking differential, is also the much more dangerous striker in this matchup.
The one question mark here for me is Gore’s gas tank, which seemed to fade a little in his last fight against Battle, and was the likely culprit that allowed Battle to take that win from Gore. If Gore can dispatch Brundage quickly though, I don’t have to worry about that. Gore has a tremendous ceiling as my favorite tournament play this week, but also does come with some risk.
SALARY PLAY
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS – $7200
This salary play is more of a cash play than a tournament play, but if you believe Dos Anjos will win this fight, then it would also be a solid tournament play as well. Dos Anjos is a tough fighter that has not been knocked out in the UFC since 2016. His opponent, Rafael Fiziev, is an amazing striker that has more decisions than he does knockouts in the UFC.
Dos Anjos has settled into accepting takedowns as his path to victory, and he has tremendous top pressure when he gets his opponents to the ground. In his last two fights, he has succeeded in taking his opponent down five and six times. The issue here lies in Fiziev’s takedown defense which is out of this world at 95%, and it has been tested in almost every fight he has been in.
My thought process here however is that Dos Anjos will do what needs to be done to get this fight to the ground, and I believe he will do it before Fiziev has the chance to turn the lights out. In fact, while the clear speed and technical advantage lies with Fiziev, I believe Dos Anjos has the power advantage and that could present a problem as well for Fiziev as he doesn’t shy away from a back and forth war.
FADE
ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO – $8700
Antonina Shevchenko is an outstanding striker much like her sister Valentina. Unfortunately for her, she isn’t remotely on the same level anywhere else. Antonina Shevchenko will go into this fight and look to kickbox just like she has in all of her other fights. If her opponent, Cortney Casey, comes into this looking for takedowns and clinch time – then the fight could turn into something exceptionally boring. At $8700 I would avoid Antonina like the plague.
I could see using some Cortney Casey however, as her salary makes a decision win worthwhile if she can manage to steal it. I don’t really think that is likely, but it is certainly possible.
ROUND OUT THE LINEUP
As I mentioned in the introduction, this week is strange. All of the fighters I like seem to be in the low to mid 8K range. The trick to victory will be finding the right 7k range fighter and whether or not the fighters over 9K perform.
With so many tight lines on the card, and not too many fights, this week will be a very tough slate on DraftKings. My intention will be to play some cash contests and maybe even skip tournaments completely this week with the exception of maybe a few cheap entries as a shot in the dark.
Good luck on your UFC Vegas 58 entries and make sure to enjoy the event. Don’t forget to join the WeWantPicks DraftKings League – It’s FREE!
