We are back! After a week-long hiatus, we have returned to the wonderful world of UFC events. This weekend marks UFC Vegas 56, which is the last fight night event prior to the PPV for the month, and kicks off ten straight weeks of fights. The card we have to look forward to isn’t the best this week, but it isn’t terrible either. There are several good spots this week for some excitement and spots where we can lay on the profit.
One of the things you will notice this week is that my DraftKings picks and plays format has changed. No longer will I be picking a cash core and then writing up all of my potential plays in a value article. Instead we will be taking a more consolidated approach for DraftKings so that I can have time to write a FanDuel article as well each week.
The new format will consist of a write up on my favorite cash game selection, my favorite tournament contest selection, my favorite salary play of the week, and finally my fade of the week. So let’s get right into it, hopefully you enjoy the new format.
CASH PLAY
ERIN BLANCHFIELD – $9600
Time to admit something, I was skeptical of Erin Blanchfield – that was of course until she came out and absolutely handled Miranda Maverick in her last fight. I view JJ Aldrich as a step down in competition from that fight personally, and am in complete agreement with why Blanchfield is one of the most favored fighters on this card.
JJ Aldrich does seem to have better takedown defense than Miranda Maverick, so we might not see the same amazing total of seven takedowns that we saw from Blanchfield in that fight, but we should easily see three or four and dominant control time to go with it.
I am expecting a huge score from Blanchfield on DraftKings this week and couldn’t see not having her in basically 100% of my lineups. I just don’t see a world where Aldrich can win this fight, she just isn’t good enough anywhere. If I am wrong I will hang my head in shame and accept my demise.
TOURNAMENT PLAY
TONY GRAVELY – $8400
A ton of people are on the Johnny Munoz side of this fight. I get it, the man is a submission monster and Gravely’s gameplan in all of his fights requires him to play on the ground with Munoz – which is a very dangerous place to be. Add in that Gravely has lost to submission before in the UFC and picking the dog here would be completely justified, but not for me.
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Due to the inherent risk involved with Gravely being on the ground with Munoz most of the fight, I fully expect him to be one of the lower owned fighters in his salary range, giving me a bit of leverage in tournaments. I also expect that if Gravely can avoid submissions, he will score huge numbers on DraftKings’ wrestling biased scoring system.
The added insurance here for me is that Munoz has very low volume on his feet, where he focuses much more on striking defense than offense. That makes it hard for him to win in any other fashion but submission as far as I am concerned – which in turns adds to my confidence in Gravely for UFC Vegas 56.
SALARY PLAY
DAN IGE – $6800
In the interest of transparency, I am firmly on the Evloev side of this fight. That being said, Evloev is a decision machine and that opens up a nice safe play here with Dan Ige. First and foremost you will get three rounds of scoring at a low salary for your cash contests, and he makes a nice salary play for tournaments because if he does win it would most likely be by a finish and guarantee him a spot in the optimal lineup. I just can’t see him winning a decision over Evloev.
There has been some clamoring about Ige coming in and wrestling his way to a victory after he attempted four takedowns against Josh Emmett, but I don’t personally view that as a realistic option due to Evloev’s 71% takedown defense – which was heavily impacted by Grundy’s six takedowns against him. Not to mention that Evloev has numerous fights with multiple takedowns himself. This is finish or bust for tournaments, and a great salary saver for cash if the fight goes the way I see it.
FADE
JEFF MOLINA – $9000
The 9K range for UFC Vegas 56 is STACKED! While I do believe that Molina wins this fight, I just can’t see him scoring better than the rest of his salary range on DraftKings. In a world where wrestling is extremely well rewarded, Molina just doesn’t have the juice. It is very possible that he comes in and gets a finish, which would score him a decent amount of points, but not as much as three dominant rounds of wrestling and control time would for other fighters in this range.
Ultimately, for his salary I just believe the value isn’t there. Even in the high 8k range you have a few fighters that could easily score as much or more than Jeff Molina. I might revisit this fight for FanDuel where control time doesn’t matter, but for DraftKings Molina will not be in any of my lineups except maybe a shot in a multiple entry if I am feeling adventurous.
JOIN THE LEAGUE
So there you have it, these are my favorite DraftKings plays for the week. If you are considering playing on DraftKings this week make sure to join the FREE We Want Picks DraftKings League! It is free to join and play in, but remember, you do need to be a member to claim the $50 prize should you win.
