Another week with eleven fights, which means another week where I will have to be pretty spot on in order to make money. The beauty about playing DFS casually however is that I can lose money and only be temporarily let down by myself instead of being severely financially affected. That being said, I like being right more than I like winning money – so being wrong ALWAYS leaves a sour taste in my mouth.
Most of the high end fighters this week are residing in my core plays. If you missed that article you can read it HERE. What we have left to choose from is solid mid-range fighters and a ton of potential salary plays. I firmly believe this week will be made in the 7000-7900 range.
Below we will take a deep dive into my favorite remaining fighters on this slate broken down by DraftKings salary ranges. I will go over why I like them, how I see the fight playing out, and then on fight day hopefully I will have assembled them into a fierce six fighter lineup ready to take on the sharks that infest the waters of Daily Fantasy Sports. Here are the fighters I like this week;
$9000 AND UP
NONE
I have both of the fighters that I like in this 9k and up range in my core this week. For those that missed it and that are too lazy to click the link above to read the core plays article, those fighters were Jailton Almeida and Holly Holm.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
CHIDI NJOKUANI – $8700
Chidi Njokuani is ripe for a knockout this week. He has two fights in the UFC (one contender series and one official), both ending by way of knockout. He is not what I would call an overly active striker, but he is active enough and has great power. Beyond that his striking accuracy and defense are both very solid, which I believe will give him the advantage in this fight.
Njokuani’s opponent, Dusko Todorovic, is not as polished of a striker in my opinion, but he is more active. In his UFC career he has two finishes by knockout and one loss by knockout. The only fight where his output wasn’t very solid was a unanimous decision loss to Gregory Rodriguez, where he was taken down three times. So I expect a high paced war here, and my expectation is that it takes place under one and half, and ends with Chidi’s hand raised by way of knockout.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ELISE REED – $8500
I have seen Elise Reed on many analyst’s fade lists this week, and even seen some hype about Sam Hughes following her last fight where she scored 95 points in a win over Istela Nunes. At the risk of sounding like a broken record from my complete tear down of Ariane Carnelossi a couple weeks ago – beating Istela Nunes by bullying her is not an accomplishment. Elise Reed is the better fighter. She may get taken down a time or two, just like her last fight, but she will get back up and do much more damage on the feet.
Using the Amanda Ribas scoring rubric, just taking someone down is not enough to win rounds, so therefore, Sam Hughes will lose decisively as she is no match for Elise Reed standing. I expect this to be a solid output three round decision. Reed is more of a cash play for me, but I wouldn’t run from the idea of throwing her into a few tournament lineups as well just for the low ownership I am expecting.
CASH MOSTLY
UNDER $8000
POLYANA VIANA – $7900
I could be taking a look at this one through a distorted lens, but in my opinion, Viana should have been the favorite. Her opponent, Tabatha Ricci did look great in her last win, taking her opponent down five times, but is that a smart place to be with Polyana Viana?
Viana has the advantage standing, and has the grappling advantage. The only advantage that Ricci holds is the ability to get the fight to the ground, which is probably where Viana wants it anyway considering all three of her UFC wins have come by submission. I think Viana is a great tournament play because when she wins she scores in the high 90’s and up – and she has two clear paths to victory in my opinion. I think Viani is equally usable for cash contests because I just don’t believe Ricci can finish her.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
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UROS MEDIC – $7800
Welcome to everyone’s favorite dog of UFC Vegas 55. Including being named Jacob’s lock of the week, Medic is receiving tons of love from across the UFC analyst community. I have decided to use him in some tournament lineups simply because in a win it will most likely be a high scoring knockout. Truth be told however, I actually think Morales wins this fight and I am not as high on Medic as many others.
I briefly considered using Omar Morales for tournaments, but he rarely finishes and I think there are better options in his salary range. Medic on the other hand, in a win, will likely outscore everyone else in the high 7k to low 8k range. Whether or not that win comes is up in the air however.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
VINCE MORALES – $7300
This is more so a play against Jonathan Martinez than it is for Vince Morales. Morales and Martinez are pretty close on the feet and neither is overly takedown focused so I expect it to stay standing for the most part. Due to how close they are standing, I think Morales is more attractive at $7300 than Martinez is at $8900.
Both Martinez and Morales have mostly decisions on their UFC record, and Morales has actually never been knocked out in the UFC. This signals to me that this fight will be a three round decision and that Morales can make for a solid fighter across all contests at his low salary.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
ERYK ANDERS – $7200
Anders is one of the more intriguing fighters on this card in my opinion. I believe that the salary allocation on this fight was grossly distorted in favor of Park. Park has been impressive with his striking and durability over his fights in the UFC, except for maybe the last one where he was knocked out. Anders on the other hand has been up and down at best, but he is the more athletic fighter and I believe that means something.
Anders is probably at a bit of a disadvantage while standing against Park because Park is a very clean striker – he just doesn’t possess Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robot power. While Park does hold an advantage in takedowns per fifteen minutes as well, Anders actually has solid takedown defense at 74%. Parks is only sitting at 47%. Anders has a path here with the takedowns and that would score very well on DraftKings in a win – which is why he is one of my favorite tournament dogs on this card.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
KETLEN VIEIRA – $7100
As you probably guessed by me having Holly Holm in my core this week, I believe that Holly wins this fight. Vieira however will most likely not be finished, and if she can manage to get a takedown or two early, her stealing a decision is definitely a potential scenario.
If she can manage to get numerous takedowns and steal rounds she is very live to win this fight. Holly almost surely will not finish Vieira, so she provides a safe floor for cash games should I decide to stack this fight – and immense tournament upside in a win.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
With all of the picking wrapped up, I can now kick back and enjoy the pre-fight rituals before locking in on Saturday for another weekend sweat fest on the DFS platforms. This week I have high hopes as I am very dialed into the fighters that I wanted to base my lineups around, putting those correct pieces around them will be the challenge. I wish you success in any contests that you enter this weekend. We Want Picks family, good luck out there!
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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