Ready to get into another week where we hope that our lineup doesn’t go up in smoke? I definitely am ready for that. Last week I saw my core fall apart with Hadley taking the decisive loss and Ribas taking a questionable one. For the record, I am not mad at the loss by Ribas, I do not feel she was robbed. I also don’t feel that Chookagian would have been robbed had they given Ribas the win. That was a close fight, and I have seen scoring all over the place, so even though I didn’t like it – it was fair. All in all it was a fall from grace after Petroski started us out with such a great advantage in his win over Maximov.
This week we have a card that has a few exciting fights on it, but all things considered isn’t the most exciting on paper. Just like Vegas 54 though, we are likely to have some great fights, so as a fan it is hard not to look forward to it anyway. The following week will have no UFC action, and that week will be the let down.
For Vegas 55 we will be looking to rebound from our terrible performance last week by focusing on having a very solid core. I am not going to take too much risk in my core this week and try to take a more measured approach while leaving the risk for the value plays article.
THE CORE PLAYS
JAILTON ALMEIDA – $9400
This pains me to make my first pick the guy fighting Parker Porter. Porter is a friend of Angelo’s and a fun fan favorite to root for. Not only that but I like the style he fights with also, every time I see a man of Porter’s build have the gas for high output in all three rounds it is impressive. Unfortunately for Parker Porter, he doesn’t have the greatest knockout power, and Almeida is a beast to try to last three rounds with.
In Almeida’s two UFC fights he has not seen the third round yet, getting a stoppage by submission in his first outing and a first round knockout win in his latest fight. The one thing I will say for sure about this matchup is that Parker Porter seems to be a significant step up in competition for Almeida when compared to his last two opponents.
My guess here is a win, and most likely a win by stoppage of some sort – submission if you twisted my arm to pick an exact method. I also like Almeida to secure a take down or three despite the step up in weight class and put up a very favorable score for both cash and tournaments.
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HOLLY HOLM – $9100
Here I am choosing Holly Holm to be in my core and to be honest about it – I am not thrilled. I get that I am supposed to like Holly, everyone likes Holly, but I just don’t. She is getting significantly up there in age, but I really don’t see it changing the way she fights much, sooner or later it probably will. Doubtful that day is this weekend however. The most likely outcome is a three round decision for Holly.
I will also probably be playing Viera for tournaments because I think she is a solid punt, especially if she can secure takedowns. For cash and many of my single entry contests however, Holm will be the play for me in the interest of not taking as many risks as I did last week in my heavily exposed fighters.
Holm is the better fighter in this matchup, has much more experience, and to be fair to her – pretty solid takedown defense as well. The takedowns or a submission are Vieira’s only true path to victory in my opinion, so I view Holly as fairly safe. I don’t see a world where Vieira can stand with Holly Holm successfully.
JOSEPH HOLMES – $8800
“Uglyman Joe” Holmes is back for another UFC appearance. After a successful submission showing in the Contender Series he fell a bit short against Jamie Pickett in his official UFC debut. Unfortunately for Holmes, he didn’t handle the takedowns of Pickett very well, and those allowed Pickett to steal rounds in an otherwise very close fight.
In this matchup, Holmes is set to matchup with Alen Amedovski who might be one of the worst fighters in the UFC on paper. He has a seriously negative strike differential, only a 37% striking defense so he is incredibly hittable, and then a 0% takedown defense as well. This fight exists in my opinion strictly to get Joseph Holmes back on the marketability train and I expect him to do that in dominating fashion.
THE PIVOT
MICHEL PEREIRA – $8200 / SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO – $8000
This fight is without question the real main event on this card. I have absolutely no idea who wins this fight, I just know that this fight will not let me down. I am somewhat leaning towards Pereira because I feel that his current trajectory is headed upwards while I believe that Ponzinibbio might be at the too little too late stage of his career. Either way both men come to put on a show and provided we can avoid some of the silly antics that seem to have been left in the past, we should get a fantastic show from these gentlemen.
Pereira is an exciting fighter with both stand up and ground capability. He averages almost two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and his striking is solid with a positive differential and 60% striking defense. Add to that he has 100% takedown defense over seven UFC fights, and we have the makings of a quality score, even in a three round decision.
On the other side of the octagon, we have Santiago Ponzinibbio, who has similar level striking – but with truckloads more power. The real question with Ponzinibbio for me is how effective he will be keeping the fight off of the ground. He only has a 60% takedown defense and that is concerning when fighting a man that incorporates takedowns into his game plan.
My plan of attack for this fight is to have Michel Pereira exposure when possible, but in the event that I need to save a couple hundred salary dollars here and there – I will drop down to Ponzinibbio and still feel fairly decent about it.
