With only eleven fights on this card, being accurate with my picks in each salary range is going to be extra important. I feel really confident in the core plays that I selected this week, you can view those HERE. Next on the agenda is to find the value in each salary range that can be used to round out my DraftKings entries.
This week has very few fighters that I feel really solid about in the under $8000 range, and even fewer in the actual budget salary range. For that reason I will be forced to make many tough decisions to load as many mid-range fighters into my lineups that I can confidently and then basically be all in on my lower salaried fighters.
Below you will be able to review each salary range that was considered and who I like from each range. While this card certainly falls a bit short on paper compared to the recent PPV event, UFC Vegas 54 has plenty of very interesting fights. Not to mention, these smaller cards almost always end up electric as well, so let’s take a look at who I like this week for DraftKings!
$9000 AND UP
TATSURO TAIRA – $9000
I had originally written Taira up as only a tournament play the last time this fight was scheduled. Since then I have had the opportunity to review more tape on the fighter and I have to admit, his ground game is pretty fierce. His opponent Carlos Candelario, while tough, isn’t the best at keeping his back off the mat.
My expectation here is that Taira gets the fight to the ground, potentially numerous times, and racks up the points with takedowns and control. That will provide a pretty safe floor for cash, and the threat of submission provides plenty of upside as well for tournaments. For me Taira will get exposure in place of Davey Grant for tournaments and in place of Cutelaba in a decent amount of my cash lineups.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
ION CUTELABA – $8900
Cutelaba is by far my favorite play on this card, but due to his wild nature that he tends to get carried away with at times, I do not fully trust him for cash. If Ion Cutelaba goes out and does what he has been doing for his last couple fights and attempts to secure takedowns, then this might be one of the best scoring fighters on the card.
Unfortunately a world does exist where Cutelaba goes out and gets into a striking war with Ryan Spann and that could potentially spell trouble for him. It is not likely to cause him trouble, but it makes the possibility much more concerning. Spann’s only real chance to win this fight in my opinion would be to catch Cutelaba with something, so the hope is that Cutelaba fights smart and goes to work on the ground as much as possible.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
ALEKSANDAR RAKIC – $8700
I truly hate this main event from a picking perspective. I could easily see this fight going either way depending on which of the two fight scripts play out. If the fight remains standing and Rakic is allowed to stay standing and striking from the outside, I expect a full five round decision in favor of Rakic. While Blachowicz definitely could land something dangerous, his “Polish Power” is a bit hyped in my opinion, only having four of his eleven wins coming by way of knockout. Three of those are in recent fights however.
The other fight script that could play out – if Jan wants to win this would be his true path to victory – would be Jan getting takedowns and controlling as much of the fight as he can off the feet. Rakic statistically has a 90% takedown defense so that feat could be a tough ask.
That doesn’t eliminate Jan’s power in any fashion however, which is the only pause for me on using Rakic for cash.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
VIRNA JANDIROBA – $8500
Jandiroba is the furthest thing from a confident play, in fact I almost didn’t even want to write her name here. The unfortunate truth however, is that on a card with only eleven fights and very few appealing underdogs, you are going to have a tough time finding a way to be different enough to separate yourself from the pack.
Virna Jandiroba is that opportunity. Her only real path to victory would be ground control or a submission so in a win she should score pretty good – but is highly unlikely to win a striking match with Angela Hill despite the clear power advantage (Angela Hill is tough to the tenth power). So definitely not worth the selection on a cash lineup for me, but could be that sprinkle of exposure in multiple entries that secures the bag in the event that she manages a win.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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MANUEL TORRES – $8300
The DWCS fade rears its ugly head again. Many will likely fade Torres because of him being a Contender Series fighter and his opponent, Frank Camacho, having a vast amount of experience. Not for me though. I believe that Torres is an exciting prospect and that Camacho’s experience is overrated.
Across Camacho’s seven UFC fights, he has fought five opponents that I would consider a quality opponent. Against those five fighters Camacho is 0-5, has been knocked out twice, and submitted once. His only really good showing against a decent opponent was against Drew Dober in a decision loss. Camacho also has not landed a takedown since five fights ago at the very beginning of 2018.
Meanwhile Torres is a striking phenom that will come in and look to end the fight quickly, boasting a plus eight differential in his DWCS fight. In a win Torres will score big, and in a loss it would likely come late or by decision. For me, I am so close to using him for both cash and tournament lineups, but since experience can always potentially be a thing I will just be using him in some of my tournament lineups.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ANDREA LEE – $8200 / VIVIANE ARAUJO – $8000
This fight is most likely going the distance, so take that for what it's worth when it comes to tournaments. There is a possibility it could end early however which is why I am considering it for both types of contests. Lee has finished her last two fights, and while Araujo has not had a finish since her first UFC fight, she has what I consider the power in hands and grappling advantage to make it happen.
Lee is the likely winner of this fight in most people’s eyes, and I could definitely see it playing out that way as well. My read on the fight however is a bit different. I believe that only Viviane’s cardio can stop her in this one. She has superb takedown defense, whereas Andrea Lee does not, and I expect Viviane to get those takedowns to steal rounds. The one downside here for Vivi and her takedowns is that she generally does a poor job truly taking advantage of them with limited control time and low striking output.
If there were more lower salary options for me on this card I would probably not even consider using this fight at all, but due to the limitations and structure of the card, I will be targeting this fight as a filler across many contests when my remaining salary ends up in the 8k range.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
UNDER $8000
ANGELA HILL – $7700
If there was ever a fighter I absolutely loved to put into my cash lineups, it would be Angela Hill. She is an absolute cash game stud – almost never gets finished and stays active for as many rounds as she is scheduled for. Unfortunately she is a tournament fade unless her salary is much lower than it is here.
Angela Hill will likely last the distance with Jandiroba and maintain a decent striking output during the fight. It is highly doubtful that she will entertain any takedowns as to do so would put here into the most dangerous area she could be with Virna, so a high score is not expected, but in a win I could see 70 or so for cash – lower if she manages to lose a decision obviously – but that is highly unlikely.
CASH ONLY
JAN BLACHOWICZ – $7500
In such a closely lined main event, especially one like this where there are two very particular ways that most people see that the fight could go, it would be foolish not to have some exposure to both fighters. For me Jan is the preferred cash play, because I do not believe that Rakic can finish him, and then obviously the salary friendly play for tournaments – although I tend to lean Rakic here.
Jan Blachowicz is a seasoned veteran with a ridiculous amount of fights in the UFC, but he had the brightest parts of his career just recently over the last few years. One can’t help but wonder if the flame burned bright and quickly and is now starting to fade – or if the setback against Glover Texeira was just a mishap that Jan will be correcting shortly.
One narrative that I am firmly against buying into is that because he beat Israel Adesanya he should have no problem with Rakic. First and foremost he beat Adesanya by exploiting a large size discrepancy, and to be honest he didn’t really do that very effectively – and secondly – MMA math is never a good method to use to gauge how you believe fights will go.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
CARLOS CANDELARIO – $7200
I had Candelario as a potential salary play the last time this fight against Taira was scheduled, and unfortunately after some more tape on Taira, I have to downgrade Candelario to a punt play this time around. The reality of the situation is that when it comes to lineups that I will be using Maximov in and not Petroski, I need to play someone on the lower end of the salary structure. I firmly believe that minus Petroski, Candelario is the choice.
Carlos Candelario is a tough fighter, and he might just survive the ground game of Taira. If he can manage to do that, I don’t think he is outmatched on his feet. That gives me hope, and at $7200 all I need is some hope.
PUNT
If nothing else, I sincerely hope that we can have an event without a post-lock scratch or terrible non-eventful fight that makes everything go wild on fantasy lineups. I am looking forward to a nice evening of fights – mostly stress free – and ideally cashing some events. Good luck to all this week, may the odds be ever in your favor!
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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