Normally the few fights that drop or have short notice fighters added don’t really affect my core plays. This week however, Romanov was a big missing piece when the core article was originally written. Chase Sherman was a late substitute opponent that was added to keep Romanov on the card, unfortunately he is coming with a price tag of $9600 – worth every penny in my opinion – but it is still a very high salary to have to account for.
If you missed the article on the core plays you can view it HERE. What I am going to do is to substitute Romanov into the core and replace Charles Jourdain since I believe he stands the greatest chance of not scoring well in the core plays that I wrote up. This might just leave me short on salary for the remainder of my cash lineups – but the use of De La Rosa should help out significantly.
To round out my cash lineups and build my tournament lineups I have broken down all of the fighters that I have interest in below. Let’s take a look;
$9000 AND UP
TYSON PEDRO – $9300
Tyson Pedro is coming off of a long layoff, and generally that might be enough to keep me away, but in this case he is fighting Ike Villanueva. That in my opinion is basically a lock, the only real question from me is the method of victory. Currently the line is -330 on DraftKings for Pedro to win by finish and that means he is a prime tournament choice.
Pedro is 3-3 in the UFC and doesn’t have a particularly impressive striking differential, striking defense, takedown defense, or really anything positive statistically to speak of. Villanueva happens to be even less impressive however with a 1-4 record in the UFC (all losses by knockout), and absorbs almost twice as many strikes as he lands – so Pedro gets the nod by default.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
AORIQILENG – $9100
Man this card is somewhat depressing. This is another contest where I will be considering the guy that is slightly less bad than his opponent. Aoriqileng is winless in the UFC after two fights, but he has managed to make sure both fights saw the scorecards. His opponent, Cameron Else, is also winless in the UFC with only one fight and that fight ended in a knockout.
The common consensus on Else seems to be that after a very strong start he will begin to fade, and by the start of the second round he is basically out of the fight. So Aoriqileng might be a great tournament choice based on him just having the ability to outlast Else and squeeze in a few takedowns. Between the two write ups in the 9k range, I am significantly more confident in Pedro, but couldn’t pass up considering Aoriqileng due to Else’s inability to maintain his cardio into the second round.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
CHARLES JOURDAIN – $8500
Nothing different on the write up from the core plays article with Jourdain, just with Romanov back into the mix for the core I felt it would be prudent to include Jourdain as a tournament option worth exploring. I still may have him in cash as well, but I happen to be what most would consider to be overly confident in him.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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CLAY GUIDA – $8200 / CLAUDIO PUELLES – $8000
I honestly have no idea which direction this fight takes, but I do think that whichever way it goes the winner will have a solid score even in a decision. At the same time the loser will probably still have a safe floor for cash.
Guida is a long time fan favorite and always gives 100%. He is capable of a three round striking match and averages over 3 takedowns per fifteen minutes as well. The problem here is that his opponent Claudio Puelles averages right around 3 takedowns per fifteen as well, although he does give some ground in the striking department.
Interesting stat here however, Clay Guida has not won a fight he was taken down in since 2008 (and he had 10 of his own takedowns in that fight). So if Puelles gets Guida to the ground he will probably win the fight. Beyond that scenario Guida is probably the safer choice.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
EVAN ELDER – $8100 / PRESTON PARSONS – $8100
Again this is another fight where I am not even close to sure who wins. Parsons should have the slight advantage with Elder coming in on short notice, but Elder isn’t exactly a bum off the street that picked up the fight. Elder is 7-0 professionally, and that could cause concern for Parsons in this matchup.
My completely non-professional opinion is that Parsons is a better shot in the dark for tournaments while Elder is probably the safer play for cash. Either way it goes however, if this fight is exciting the price point makes it very attractive for DraftKings.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
UNDER $8000
LANDO VANNATA – $7700
As strongly as I feel about Jourdain in this matchup, there is a definite possibility that Vannata gets some takedowns and takes this fight. I do think this fight, even in a decision, scores well and if you need exposure to it without being able to fit Jourdain, then Vannata could potentially do the trick for you in tournament contests.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
JORDAN WRIGHT – $7600
Violence. Violence. Violence. Jordan Wright is a kill or be killed type of fighter. In fact he has never seen a third round in the UFC. His opponent was just recently knocked out and somehow has managed to get back into the octagon just two months later.
I really believe that Wright should be the favorite in this fight and his salary makes him a no-brainer for me when it comes to tournaments. The value that will come back if he ends this fight in the first round will pretty much guarantee him a spot on the optimal with a win.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
So to recap the week’s events, we started with what many are calling an unimpressive card. From that point we had a couple fights shuffle around and lost one that was important to me to an OSADA violation. What we are left with is an absolutely stacked 9k and up range, some very obvious value in the under 8k range, and a whole lot of uncertainty in between. It should make for a very exciting evening but it really feels like throwing darts to a degree to get something I can feel confident in for tournaments.
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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