Well, after two solid weeks in a row, I fell a bit short this time around. Baeza destroyed my cash lineups with his loss because I was already voluntarily taking a hit on Pannie (although she did about 10 points better than I expected). Tournaments fell short due to a Russian wrestler. Never imagined a Russian wrestler would be the culprit, but Borrahlo was incredibly impressive – so at least I got a good show while my money circled the drain.
This week the card is slightly better, but still nothing too amazing in my opinion. I am very excited for a handful of fighters on this card however, and hopefully we can get through the event without illegal strikes or point deductions. If we can, I think the event has some merit to be exciting.
Let’s get into the core plays this week that will serve as the building blocks to get back on the winning track. These plays are meant mostly for cash contests, and deviations for tournaments will be noted. Then later this week I will get into the rest of the card and find the value to round out my lineups. Here we go;
THE CORE PLAYS
CHARLES JOURDAIN – $8500
If durability and violence could be personified, I think it would be in the form of Charles Jourdain. Exciting fights that are incredibly active with a high chance of finishing are a staple of Jourdain’s fighting style. He has only been finished by submission which isn’t really a threat from his opponent, Lando Vannata. Vannata will likely take Jourdain down once however, so by playing Jourdain I am expressing my belief in him returning to his feet.
Jourdain is the slightly better technical striker on paper, and his affinity for turning his fights into wars can return big scores on the DFS scoreboards. My expectation here is either knockout or a very active three round decision in favor of Jourdain.
MARCIN PRACHNIO – $8400
This is less a play for Prachnio, and more a play against Philipe Lins. From the time Lins made his UFC debut and I spent time watching tape on Lins, I have been avidly against him getting a single win in the UFC. Prachnio will be his least skilled opponent since coming to the UFC, so it is possible that this fight works out for him, but I am just not a believer.
Prachnio has a negative record in the UFC himself, but that is largely due to his chin’s inability to keep up. Prachnio is a very active striker with a significant advantage on paper in both strike differential and striking defense. He has been knocked out three times in the UFC, but Lins throws his hands lacking purpose or aggression more often than not, so it is my firm belief that any chin within a four mile radius of Philipe Lins is as safe as it has ever been. I expect Prachnio to overwhelm Lins with volume, and possibly get a finish in the process.
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MONTANA DE LA ROSA – $7200
Speaking of plays against a fighter instead of being for the fighter I am picking. Here is another. This time we are playing against Maycee Barber. To be clear I do see a possibility that Barber wins the fight – if by nothing else her enthusiastic noise making while not making contact with her opponent – but I think De La Rosa stands a much better chance in this fight than the salary would suggest.
The one thing that I do not see is Maycee Barber finishing De La Rosa, so I am fairly confident that my lineup will get a safe floor of three rounds of activity. So far in four months of 2022, there has been one female fight finished by strikes (Molly McCann) and I just can’t imagine that Barber becomes the second girl on that list. De La Rosa could certainly catch her with a submission however, as she has three times previously in the UFC and as a bonus I get the wrestling/takedown advantage with the cheaper fighter.
THE PIVOT
JESSICA ANDRADE – $8900 / AMANDA LEMOS – $7300
As much as it pains me to do this, my pivot fight is once again the main event for the third week in a row. This week it is more a battle of my head versus my heart than it has anything to do with logic and reason. My head is saying roster Jessica Andrade – but man my heart is saying take Amanda Lemos at that lovely salary.
The last fight for Amanda Lemos against Angela Hill was an eye opener. She came away with the split decision but it was certainly debatable on whether or not she deserved it. She was also taken down by Hill for the first time in her UFC career, and we got a glimpse into her ground game – she definitely lost Brazillian points for that aspect of her game.
Andrade is a powerful wrestler, solid on the ground, and every bit as active on her feet as Amanda Lemos, so everything in the realm of logic is saying use Andrade to me. My appreciation for Lemos and her striking style however will definitely have me using her as well in certain contests.
This week I think I will be leaning Andrade for my cash contests, and plug Lemos into some tournaments here and there as a punt play with 5 round potential.
It should be noted that coming into this week Alexandr Romanov was my favorite play on the card. Romanov is the personification of violence and a throwback to the glory days of ground and pound in the UFC.
They have brought in Chase Sherman to fight him this weekend, and I will be fitting him into my lineups for both cash and tournaments at 100% exposure no matter who I have to drop to make that happen.
