What an amazing event UFC 273 was, not only for the fans watching, but also for our core plays last week. I suppose we could have gotten more from the Khamzat play by moving down to someone like Mike Mallot, but that would have been more of a tournament style play – for cash Khamzat was just fine, and he was probably fine for your tournaments as well.
This week the fights head back to the Apex Center in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 51. One of the first things I noticed about this card was how unimpressed I was by it, but then I realized that I had to reign in my expectations because I was still expecting PPV quality. For what this is, UFC Vegas 51 is pretty solid.
One of the things I noticed on this event’s DraftKings pricing was that there wasn’t much value in the sub 8k range. Pretty much everyone’s lineup this week is going to succeed or fail based on the fighters they choose from the 8K-8.5k range in my opinion. Before I can go value hunting however, I always make sure to lock down the three fighters that I feel the most confident in. Then I find a pivot fight that I know will be important, but I want to be exposed to both sides in different contests. That makes up my core. This week’s core is;
THE CORE PLAYS
PAT SABATINI – $9200
Pat Sabatini will never not be in my lineup on a card where he is fighting an underwhelming opponent. Between the takedowns and submissions he is a fighter that was just hand crafted for a DraftKings lineup. Maybe there will be one day where the opponent he is fighting is just too much for him, but T.J. Laramie isn’t that guy in my opinion.
On paper Laramie is the more active striker, but that is very skewed due to Sabatini’s ability to take people down and control them on the ground. Laramie doesn’t really have that skill, so him averaging an additional strike or two per minute isn’t really saying much.
I expect this fight to go much the way the last three Sabatini fights went, control time, submissions, and takedowns. Sabatini is a DraftKings scoring machine, and he will plug into my lineups at 100% exposure.
PANNIE KIANZAD – $9100
Ok, so before we get into the why of this pick, allow me to acknowledge the $9100 elephant in the room. Pannie Kianzad is NOT worth this salary. In fact she really isn’t worth anywhere near this salary in a normal situation. This card is not a normal situation however. This card has numerous close fights, a few guys in the upper salary ranges that I just can’t be sure of, and I like sure things in my cash lineup.
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Kianzad, while boring and low scoring, is a sure thing in this spot in my opinion. I will only be using her for cash and will certainly move down for tournaments where my fighters score matters a bit more. She just doesn’t have the output or finishing power to make her worth using in tournaments. For cash though, she is a win and at least 70ish points – that's a locked roster spot on such a questionable card for me in cash – regardless of salary.
MIGUEL BAEZA – $8700
I firmly believe a little bit of recency bias is creeping in here with Baeza’s last losses to Khaos Williams and Santiago Ponzinibbio. The fight against Khaos was close going into the third round where he got clipped and knocked out for the first time in his career, and the Ponzinibbio fight was a razor thin decision after a three round war. Both of those fights could have gone in the other direction very easily.
So I believe that those that are saying Baeza is overpriced here, or that his opponent is more valuable, are only doing so because they forgot just how smooth Miguel Baeza is. Baeza can win anywhere the fight goes, and he can also win a heavy paced decision as well. For me, this makes him an ideal cash and tournament play for UFC Vegas 51.
THE PIVOT
VICENTE LUQUE – $8500 / BELAL MUHAMMAD – $7700
Here comes another week where I have the main event as my pivot fight. I could honestly see this fight going in either direction. The one direction that I don’t really think I see it going is how their first fight did back in 2016. That fight ended in a Luque knockout, which is still the only time Muhammad has been knocked out in his UFC career.
I think the one thing that is different in this fight from the first one is the career path each fighter is on currently. Luque is on the downswing of his UFC career in my opinion. He had his chance to play at the top and ultimately fell a bit short, and while still a very capable fighter, I just don’t think he is at the point that Belal Muhammad is where Muhammad seems to be making that run for himself now – having not lost a fight since 2019.
My expectation here is to see a painfully boring three round decision in favor of Belal Muhammad. If the fight does end inside the distance – my guess there would be that Luque catches Muhammad in some kind of submission due to carelessness on Muhammad’s part. I suppose there is a small chance that Muhammad could get knocked out again by Luque as well, but I do not believe that to be the likely path to victory.
For me its a simple play of Muhammad on my cash core lineups, and most of my tournament lineups – but I will also want to sprinkle in a moderate dose of Luque for tournament contests as well.
