Last week went really, really well. In fact, except for McCann, I think we wrote up pretty much everyone that won their fight. Unfortunately for me, I banked on Volkov for the pivot in cash games and the explosion from Aspinall ended up being how it played out. Not the end of the world, it was still an amazing event that I enjoyed completely.
This week we come back down to reality. This card on paper just simply doesn’t excite me much. Great main event, but beyond that I am less than impressed. Just because it doesn’t excite me on paper doesn’t mean it won’t be a great event however. In fact I can’t recall the last time an event hasn’t been great to watch.
This card will likely be the same as fighting almost always seems to be exciting, especially on the fight night cards because they chase finishes more aggressively in my opinion to get that bonus from the UFC. Unfortunately, at first glance, I think I am behind way too many favorites this week. That is Friday’s problem however as I go hunting for value. Today is core and favorites are all fair game. Let’s take a look at the core for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukus.
THE CORE PLAYS
MANON FIOROT – $9400
Fiorot was originally only going to be a tournament play for me because of her insane price tag, but the more I look at this card, she becomes more and more of a clear cut play in all contests for me. If I had to bet body parts on one fighter on this card getting a win it would be Fiorot.
Manon Fiorot is a dangerously skilled striker who is also capable of getting takedowns if she chooses. In this fight she is fighting someone, Jennifer Maia, with a negative strike differential and sub 60% takedown defense. I am expecting a huge score here regardless of whether or not it is a finish or a fight that goes the full three rounds.
ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV – $????
If for any reason a second fight for Khizriev falls through on the same card, I would swap this play to Askar Askarov. If the fight, which is now supposed to be against Denis Tuilulin, stays and is added to the DraftKings player pool, then this is a no-brainer.
Khizriev is a nasty wrestler who shows his opponents no mercy once he gets them to the ground with fierce ground and pound. At this point I have watched enough of his Russian tape that I am beginning to understand certain aspects of the language. With Denis Tuilulin, also a Russian, coming in on short notice this is another fight where I expect full domination. The floor is also really safe here because of the level of wrestling that Khizriev possesses. The only downside is that we don’t know yet what salary he is going to be added at. Anything around $9000 would be acceptable. If he gets added at something insane like $9600, then he would be preferred over Fiorot and then I would go to Askarov as a second high salary fighter.
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SARA MCMANN – $7300
This is a bit of a risky play because Sara McMann is on the wrong side of 40 for mixed martial arts. I just believe in her wrestling ability, and I don’t believe that her opponent – Karol Rosa – has faced anything like it. The only area where McMann is looking a bit questionable to me is her affinity for getting submitted in her losses. Four of her six losses, and it's the most recent four, have come by way of submission.
Rosa however has not won a fight by submission in the UFC, in fact I don’t believe that she has even attempted one. Rosa’s path to victory is on her feet where she is active and accurate, or through takedowns with ground and pound. She doesn’t really seem to be blessed in the power department however, landing over 100 strikes in multiple fights with no finishes in the UFC.
At the end of the day I do not believe in Rosa’s ability to out wrestle McMann, even with McMann’s takedown defense being a pretty terrible 50%. Further I do not believe in her ability to finish McMann – so I think that just gives McMann multiple chances to land her own takedowns and steal a decision over the very heavy favorite. This is a safe floor play for cash games in my opinion, but I will likely look elsewhere for tournament contests.
THE PIVOT
CURTIS BLAYDES – $7900 / CHRIS DAUKUS – $8300
These big name heavyweight main events are so stressful. First and foremost they are such close fights to begin with, and then because they are heavyweights there is that added stress of knowing a single punch at any point could end the fight – more so than with other weight classes.
Curtis Blaydes is the favorite here, and with good reason, he is one of the most impressive wrestlers in the entire promotion if we are just looking at the takedown itself. In fact, I just mentioned him in the last core write up for taking down Volkov fourteen times in their fight. His ground and pound is vicious to put it mildly as well. The one area that creates cause for concern is his seeming inability to keep the fight on the ground once he gets it there. Couple that with all three of his UFC losses coming from knockout (Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou 2x) and I have a few reservations. His takedown ability gives him the safer floor, and if the fight does go the distance, the advantage as well in my opinion.
Chris Daukus is no bum however. His only loss in the UFC was also from being knocked out by Derrick Lewis. Daukus is more live for a knockout, especially one that comes from a standing position. The one thing about Daukus that is a bit concerning is that we really don’t know what his ability to defend takedowns against such a high level wrestler will look like. He has a 100% takedown defense on paper, but he hasn’t actually fought anyone that is really talented at getting the fight to the mat – so the number is a bit misleading. I do have faith that he will be able to get back up as long as he doesn’t just accept the position however. Each time this fight returns to the feet will give him new hope for a knockout.
The direction that I am going to go with this week will likely be to have equity in this fight from both sides. I will have more exposure to Blades in cash games as I view him as the “safer” fighter, and then have most of my tournament exposure to Daukus for the savings and knockout upside.
