UFC 275 was amazing from an entertainment standpoint, unfortunately I was on the wrong side of an overwhelming amount of straight picks, finishing an embarrassing 3-8 for the card. That is without question my worst pick record for an event in my lifetime, and very sobering coming off of picking 12-2 the week prior. Unfortunately there is no time to lick my wounds, as another week down means another week up, and it’s time to get back to picking winners for UFC Austin!
This week has some really interesting fights, and is looking much brighter than previous fight night cards that may have been lacking a bit. The main event is Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett which is sure to be a banger! Beyond that we have names like Kevin Holland, Gregory Rodrigues, Phil Hawes, and of course the legend Donald Cerrone.
Below I will be breaking down my favorite plays from a variety of perspectives when it comes to DraftKings contests. While this card has plenty of fights that are up for grabs, just like UFC 275, this one seems to be a much more straightforward dog or pass in most of the matchup for DFS. There are fights like Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley for example. Yes I like Adrian Yanez to win that fight, but it's much closer than the DraftKings salaries suggest, and I would be hard pressed to play Yanez at $9400 in anything but maybe a few multi-entry lines.
Let’s jump into it and go over my favorite plays for UFC Austin;
CASH PLAY
KEVIN HOLLAND – $8900
While Kevin Holland had previously found himself on my “nope not ever” list, he has since redeemed himself with an impressive win over Alex Oliveira. Unfortunately he did find himself on the ground in that fight as well, which is a bit concerning, but he made it work.
This week he will fight veteran Tim Means. Tim Means has been around in the UFC for what feels like forever, and has probably won and lost in every way imaginable. One of the things that remains fairly consistent through 24 UFC fights dating back to 2012, is that he only averages less than one takedown every fifteen minutes. So while it certainly is possible that Kevin Holland can be taken down, I like the chances here for a stand and bang type of fight. This style favors Kevin Holland heavily at this point in Tim Mean’s career – especially considering Holland’s six inch reach advantage.
I expect Holland to win by knockout in this fight by the second round. I just don’t believe that Tim Means will handle the length well and I expect him to struggle to get the fight to the ground. Even if this fight goes to a decision, with Means involved I expect the pace to be pushed almost all fight long for a potentially really solid score.
TOURNAMENT PLAY
DONALD CERRONE – $8300
To be completely honest, I cringed a little bit writing this name here, because there is a legitimate threat early from Joe Lauzon to finish this fight in my opinion. That being said, the value is too great to pass up. When these two were last scheduled to fight, Cerrone was an $8800 fighter on DraftKings. A little stomach bug later and now he has dropped $500 in salary to only $8300. You simply can’t ignore that kind of value.
I believe this fight will come down to how well Cerrone handles the early pressure. Joe Lauzon is a fast starter, and it is no secret that Cerrone doesn’t really like being pushed backwards and fighting off of his back foot. If Cerrone can manage to stay in the fight through that early push however, which I believe he can, then he becomes incredibly live for a knockout.
Lauzon has had each of his last three fights end in a knockout, and was on the losing end of two of them. He has not however been submitted since 2010, so the knockout is the clearest path for Cerrone here. I believe it will happen in the late first round or second round. If this fight goes three, I think there will still be enough activity to score a decent amount of points for this salary.
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SALARY PLAY
JOSH EMMETT – $7400
I really have no idea how to predict what is going to happen in this fight. Kattar is one of those fighters that almost always surprises me with how good he is, and how much I seemed to have overlooked him. Emmett on the other hand, has tons of power, and the physicality that I think Kattar will struggle to deal with.
Really what this came down to for me was salary versus takedown and finish upside. In this fight if anyone is getting takedowns I expect it to be Emmett. If anyone is scoring a knockout, I expect it to also be Emmett. A decision however would likely favor Kattar and his technical striking. I still believe at that point however that Emmett will still score a decent amount of points for his salary.
The knockout from Emmett might be a bit sunshine and rainbows thinking as Kattar has yet to be knocked out in the UFC, but he has been in three consecutive wars that I believe have to take their toll on a man. If Emmett ends up sleeping I will just have to accept that I rolled the dice on the cheaper fighter in what I believe to be a really close main event.
FADE
GLORIA DE PAULA – $9200
In total honesty, there is probably a solid reason to fade almost the entire 9K range this week. Not a single one of them is a lock to score bunches of points in my opinion. Of that group however, Gloria De Paula is the least likely to get a finish or score big as far as I can tell. I am pretty sure she will get the win – which I suppose is more than I can say for most fighters in that salary range – but I am almost as certain that it will come by decision.
Again, this whole range is a bit sketchy as far as I am concerned, so I will be steering clear of almost everyone at the top unless it's a multi-entry contest.
ROUND OUT THE LINEUP
My perspective this week, especially for the contests that I play which are cash games and small field single entry, is to fade the majority of the highest priced fighters. I think that most of them have significant question marks surrounding them. Even those with clear paths to victory are likely not going to score incredibly highly.
For me, this week will be all about value in the 8K range. My lineup will consist of fighters that are either favored in that range, or a couple of the lower priced dogs that I believe have significant value relative to how they were priced.
This week needs to be a bounce back week for me after a terrible showing at UFC 275. It is rare that I bomb even in cash games, and I did just that last week. Good luck to all this week, hope you do well.
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