A new series of six consecutive fight weeks kicks off this Saturday in Miami, Florida with UFC 287. This slate is loaded with great fights, and solid opportunities to find value within the FanDuel pricing. Our main event is the second MMA meeting between Israel Adesanya and now champion Alex Pereira that is sure to entertain. Beyond that there are numerous amazing fights lined up for our enjoyment.
One of the most important things to recognize this week is the mispricing on Jaqueline Amorim, it will surely send her ownership through the roof and almost force you into playing her in all cash games and most small field tournaments. Obviously with large field contests you can attempt to deviate some to get different and move yourself ahead of a large portion of the field.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 287. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-500 FDNGTD)
GERALD MEERSCHAERT ($13) vs. JOE PYFER ($17)
This fight is the most favored to end inside the distance and it is by a very wide margin. We have a veteran of the cage in Gerald Meerschaert matching up against one of the up and coming prospects Joe Pyfer.
Gerald Meerschaert is almost always considered to be very live in any fight he is in because of his high level grappling. Meerschaert can quite literally end a fight at any point by securing a submission if given the opportunity. Not to mention that lately many people were impressed by his striking performance against Bruno Silva. The biggest area of concern for Meerschaert here will be his somewhat questionable chin and how it manages to hold up under Pyfer’s power should GM3 get rocked.
Joe Pyfer is somewhat new to the UFC, with this being only his second official UFC fight. Pyfer is a power house that is capable of ending a fight in one solitary shot. This should be a pretty decent step up in competition for him however, so it remains to be seen if his mixed martial arts skills will translate against true UFC level competition.
My thoughts here are 100% with Pyfer, but I may be a victim of the hype train. If I was playing multiple entry contests I would surely have plenty of both of these guys as the winner will likely score well over 100 points.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-135 FDNGTD)
ROB FONT ($14) vs. ADRIAN YANEZ ($16)
On a card that is full of moderate does not go the distance lines, we are going to pivot a bit here and go away from the betting lines to a fight that I just believe is going to be a certified banger. In this fight we have two fighters that love to scrap.
Our first contestant is Rob Font, who you may remember looking like a guy that should be saying “Yo Adrian” in his last outing…except he did not enjoy the glory of victory like Rocky did. He was winning the fight in every single round, only to finish the rounds down on the scorecards due to knockdowns. Unfortunately Rob Font does not have really any power to speak of, which is a shame because he is such a talented fighter. His volume is amazing, is very difficult to finish, and could be a sneaky good play if he is able to withstand the power coming back at him from Yanez.
Adrian Yanez is an absolute force in the cage, and widely recognized for having some of the best boxing in all of MMA. The nice thing about Yanez’s boxing is that he has the power to go with it. That is the big question mark for this fight, will that power be enough to end the fight or will this be a war of two amazing strikers for three full rounds. In either direction the volume should make the score worthwhile, but we would be delusional not to recognize that a stoppage is only really live in favor of Adrian Yanez.
This fight is a coin flip in my opinion. I have such a great appreciation for both sides and what they bring to the table. If you twisted my arm I would probably have to lean Yanez mostly due to power and youth, but Font offers the salary savings so he has his merits as well.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-150 FDNGTD)
ALEX PEREIRA ($19) vs. ISRAEL ADESANYA ($20)
I have talked about this fight with Angelo off and on pretty much non-stop since it was announced. I tried to get him to jump on +135 for Pereira when the line dropped on BetOnline and at that time he was on team Adesanya. Now it seems like he has switched camps while I am starting to appreciate the possibility that Izzy gets it done a bit more.
Israel Adesanya has fought Alex Pereira three times now, and this will be the fourth. He has zero wins to this point – although the first kickboxing match up could have easily been scored for him in my opinion. The second kickboxing fight had Adesanya winning right up until he was out on the canvas. In a similar fashion in their first MMA meeting, Adesanya was winning every round in my opinion, right up until that fifth round left hook connected and altered the course of history. Up until that very moment Israel Adesanya had fought a perfect fight. He worked combinations all fight long and then slid out of danger. When he was pressed against the fence he shelled up until he could move off the fence and change the angle to get away. His showing was a thing of true beauty, it reminded me of an MMA version of watching Floyd Mayweather box. Unfortunately for Adesanya none of it mattered when the power finally connected. You could possibly make the argument that it was stopped early and that Adesanya was still with it – but I would just assume you had money on Israel at that point.
Alex Pereira is a big middleweight that packs loads of power in his left hook. It is truly game changing, and avoiding it completely for 25 minutes is a big ask. The striking of Pereira is quite honestly not as good as Adesanya’s. The combinations are not as crisp, and there doesn’t appear to be as much strategy involved in the way he puts his striking together. What he does have is that power that makes it hard to stay conscious , and that size that makes it very difficult to stay away from him.
I don’t know much about fighting outside of your everyday normal 30 second scuffles most men get into at some point in their younger years, but I do know what scared looks like. I also know enough about human behavior to know that you can’t take three consecutive losses to the same person and have a shred of confidence going into a fourth fight. I firmly believe we saw the best version of Adesanya in that last fight, and if he fights in the same style again I believe it ends earlier this time.
For Israel Adesanya to win I believe he needs to fight the Julianna Pena fight where he just doesn’t care what's coming back at him and take the intimidation aspect of the fight away from Pereira. Obviously that leaves him open to getting caught, but the safe route has failed him twice already, avoiding that power for 25 minutes is just too much to ask.
For me, the call is Pereira and it's actually a super easy call to make in my opinion…but I can’t help but hope that Adesanya can make it happen and get it done because there is nothing more uplifting than watching someone stand up to their bullies.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
