Last week was a Krylov versus Spann fight taking place away from being amazing. In fact the top seven scorers on the slate were given out as plays in the premium membership section of We Want Picks. Here is hoping for some repetition on that front.
UFC 285 is a MONSTER card! On that monster card there are loads of very heavily favored fighters, but we want to target the ones that make the most sense to finish – while also not attacking some of the overwhelming chalk on the slate – muffled cough – Bo Nickal.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 285. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-280 FDNGTD)
CODY GARBRANDT ($16) vs. TREVIN JONES ($14)
This fight is the second highest favored fight to end inside the distance behind the offering being made to Bo Nickal. The difference here with this fight is that both sides have potential to win this one by stoppage, and that this fight is reasonably priced on both sides.
Cody Garbrandt is a former champion and has the power that you covet when adding fighters to your DFS roster. The problem is that his chin doesn’t make the trip to most of his fights these days, and he can just as easily get starched himself while going in for the kill. The strange thing is that Cody is actually an amazing wrestler, but he just doesn’t use it. He wants to bang, his chin doesn’t, and it costs him in a lot of his fights.
Trevin Jones is a well rounded fighter, but he doesn’t have the same level of overwhelming power that will be across from him on fight night. Could he get the knockout, of course, virtually anyone could breathe the right way on Cody’s chin and accomplish that task – but it isn’t exactly something he is known for.
I find it very difficult to roster Cody personally, and when it comes to my contests I would prefer to be on the less expensive side with the better chin. It would be foolish however not to recognize that Cody has the power to end this quickly if he connects and he would put up a monster score at only $16.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-250 FDNGTD)
IAN GARRY ($21) vs. SONG KENAN ($9)
The next big thing from Ireland is headed into battle once again in this matchup as we see Ian Garry (Ian Garry-Machado?…Ian Machado-Garry?) taking on the hard hitting Song Kenan. This is one of those fights that you just shouldn’t overthink.
Ian Garry is a hyped up prospect, and future star, in this sport. Not only that but he is also the future Irish meal ticket for the UFC in the market that Connor McGreggor opened up for them. Garry is a wildly impressive striker that looks to make each outing exciting. I wouldn’t describe his power as overwhelming, but it works. I would place the ceiling here at a second round finish, and the floor at an active three round unanimous decision.
Across the cage from Garry will be veteran Song Kenan. Song has game changing power, as is shown by his three knockouts in his four UFC wins. In fact the only win he has in the UFC that wasn’t a knockout was a fight that was slowed down by his opponent taking a grapple heavy approach. Kenan won’t have to worry about that here, but he won’t be the more skillful striker either – so he will need to rely on that power.
I don’t plan on overthinking this, and you shouldn’t either. Garry is actually one of my more confident plays on the slate. There is a word where he gets clipped by Song’s power though and that could potentially be a slate breaking performance.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-200 FDNGTD)
MATEUSZ GAMROT ($17) vs. JALIN TURNER ($13)
The buzz around this one has been real. There are tons and tons of Jalin Turner stans who cannot get enough of him as an underdog in this matchup. Plenty of claims about Gamrot being “flat” or “exposed” in his last couple fights have been circling the MMA online community – mostly by people who ate paint chips as a child best I can tell – but circling nonetheless.
Mateusz Gamrot has had two wildly difficult matchups in his last two fights which have done nothing but help propel the narrative that Turner is a valuable dog in this fight. The first of those two fights was against Arman Tsarukyan who has championship caliber talent in his own right. Gamrot managed to come away with the decision win in that one, but the fight was such a high level display on both sides that I wouldn’t have argued against that decision in either direction. The second was against Beneil Dariush, who might be the most criminally underrated fighter in the lightweight division. This one was a clear loss for Gamrot, but that is more a testament to Dariush being solid gold defending takedowns and keeping the fight in his realm which is striking.
I can see where it could come off this way, but I don’t mean to disparage Jalin Turner in the least. He is an incredible 6’3’’ at lightweight and very capable of using his length to his advantage. Primarily Turner is an electric striker with an amazing level of athelticism, but a big part of his game is also his high level BJJ – which excels even more when combined with his athleticism in a scramble. I suppose there is an outside chance Turner could make something happen here, but if he does I expect it to look more flukey than planned personally.
I am firmly in the Gamrot camp, and doubt I would even consider Turner for my lineup(s). There certainly could be a reward for those that do in a sliver of the multiverse. Proceed with caution on this one, unless you are on the Gamrot side and then of course hammer that play until your hands hurt from adding him to lineups.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.