FanDuel definitely threw a wrench in most everyone’s plans last week when they canceled NFL and MMA contests. Truthfully it was a blessing in disguise for me however, as I was on the wrong side of a few fights that would have absolutely crushed my single entry tournament lineups. This week we come back looking for retribution on the UFC 283 slate.
In this breakdown we are going to take a look at three fights that you absolutely should be targeting for your FanDuel tournament contests. These fights are expected to end inside the distance and should provide huge scores to give your lineup the boost it needs to achieve success…provided you are on the right side of them.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 283. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-900 FDGTD)
TERRANCE MCKINNEY ($15) vs. ISRAEL BONFIM ($14)
The most likely fight on the slate to end inside the distance is actually the Jailton Almeida fight at -1200, but with the pricing the way it is this week and what I believe to be questionable underdogs I personally believe that this is the most important fight to target as opposed to Almeida.
Terrance McKinney has been a shining star example of the type of fighters that the fans, including myself, absolutely love. McKinney comes out to handle business each and every time while going 100 mph right from the start of the first round. In fact, he doesn’t really see the second round generally. He is either going out and dispatching his opponents or, in the case of Drew Dober, he is being finished by an opponent that can survive the onslaught. My biggest concern with McKinney is how much of his own personal safety gets put on the line for him to fight with that level of intensity.
On the other side of the cage we have the official debut appearance of the next generation of Brazillian stars in one half of the Bonfim brothers. Ismael Bonfim is a powerful striker that is surrounded by loads of hype. Is that hype justified…it could be. We just don’t really know. Ismael is the more loose of the two brothers and he will bring the ruckus in his own right with a ton of power on his strikes. The main question that I have on this side is how well Ismael Bonfim will handle the unreal pressure that the first two minutes of this fight is going to put on him in front of a massive home crowd.
It absolutely kills me to say this, but for me personally, I am on the Ismael Bonfim side for this fight. Truthfully that is not even based on any kind of verifiable stat, but rather just the feeling that I don’t believe the UFC would put the Bonfim’s across from someone that they believe can actually end the hype their first time out. Either way it goes, this fight is important. It will be chalky, but it very likely will be chalk that you should embrace.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-750 FDGTD)
JOHNNY WALKER ($17) vs. PAUL CRAIG ($13)
This is the fight that I am expecting to have the lowest cumulative ownership from the fights in this write up. Neither one of these gentlemen are exactly my dreamboat fighter to have money riding on…but here we are.
Johnny Walker is a heavy striker with kill switch level power. He looks to stalk his opponents and come in with power from distance. When that power connects, the lights usually go off for his opponent. The issue though, is that Walker has been anything but consistent, and has demonstrated terrible fight IQ on a couple of occasions, and poor judgment even in celebrating his wins. This fight feels like a fight that he should be very dominant in, but I also believe that Johnny Walker is the kind of guy that misfortune may find from time to time.
Paul Craig will be the other choice in this matchup and simply put, he has nothing for Johnny Walker on the feet. In the guard or on the ground however, that is a complete 180 degree turn. Craig is a submission or bust type of fighter, and one that has found that submission in some of the most improbable situations. This has obviously endeared him to fans, and is the main reason that he always brings decently high dog ownership in his fights. Make no mistake though, Craig has one path to victory and it's a long shot.
If you are playing single entry contests, Johnny Walker is the play here. He is only $17 and brings HUGE first round finish potential to the table. Paul Craig is dangerous enough however to be in the mix for your multiple entry contests as well.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-750 FDGTD)
GREGORY RODRIGUES ($18) vs. BRUNNO FERREIRA ($12)
Finally, the last fight we are going to take a look at, is Robocop against Brunno Ferreira. My opinion on this fight is very different from that of the guys doing the breakdowns. I personally don’t really believe Brunno Ferreira to be much of a concern for Robocop, but I suppose we shall find out.
Gregory Rodrigues has impressed the hell out of me in every single official UFC fight he has had. He is a very adequate fighter it seems in all facets of MMA which is great, but likely more important than that – he fights for your money. In his last fight his head meat was visible to the world in what I thought would be a cut that ends the fight. Not for Robocop though, he fought through the adversity and ended up getting a huge win. It’s not the first time he has done that either – nasty cut not included. His opponent is coming in on short notice to fight a guy that is a much higher level fighter than him, and is surging currently in his career. The only potential negative to Robocop would be the amount of ownership he will likely take.
Brunno Ferreira is taking this fight on short notice. He has power in his hands based on his tape, but to be fair I really question the pedigree of some of those opponents he was folding. His strikes are heavy and looping and gives a ton of space for Rodrigues to find a home for tighter more down the pipe striking. Brunno also seems to have pretty decent grappling and BJJ, but it doesn’t appear to be something he prefers to use.
So this is biased for sure, but Gregory Rodrigues is one of my favorite plays on the slate when looked at through a lens of confidence. For me that is the way here, and I would likely fade Almeida in favor of being able to load up with Robocop and Walker in my single entries and still get co-main and main event equity. Ferreira does have enough power to not be a complete fade though, you should surely take a bit of “just in case” ownership.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.