Whatever you do, make sure not to step on any of the landmines that are present on the UFC 282 daily fantasy slate. This card is jam packed with fights that have reasonable paths to go in either direction. My sincere suggestion is to play light this week for UFC 282, there is no reason to play heavy at all. Maybe enter a few low dollar single entry tournaments or possibly one of the lower cost multiple entry tournaments. I would shy away from cash this week completely, which is a vast departure from the normal routine. There are just too many unknowns on this slate.
As usual however, in this article we are going to look at the three fights that you absolutely should be targeting for your entries. The biggest question this time around is who will in fact win these fights. That is up in the air on virtually every matchup. If you can manage to be on the right side of the predictions then you could clean up just risking a few dollars with the strategy above.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 282. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-750 FDGTD)
VINICIUS SALVADOR ($20) vs. DANIEL DA SILVA/LACERDA ($9)
This fight is very heavily favored to end inside the distance, and for what it’s worth that is very much because of the underdog Daniel Da Silva. He has been in three fights in the UFC to this point and all have ended in the same fashion. Da Silva starts out strong, and then fades. Great hammer, poor nail.
Vinicius Salvador is making his official UFC debut after an impressive Contender Series showing against Shannon Ross. Salvador is a striker that packs a decent amount of power within his technically sound approach. The glaring issue here however is that his defensive striking appears to be lacking somewhat. So there is always the chance of him clipped early, especially because that is where Da Silva regularly looks very good. The other issue that I wonder about a little bit is the grappling difference between the two fighters, I was unable to locate much tape of Salvador grappling, and unfortunately I couldn’t tell if that was because he is just that good at keeping the fight at range, or if that was because he hasn’t been tested.
Daniel Da Silva, or Daniel Lacerda as he is otherwise known, is a quick starter that has been very much a kill or be killed fighter in every single UFC appearance he has had. He has not won a single one of these fights. Unfortunately for him even when he is the one doing the winning it hasn’t proven strong enough to actually get his opponents out of there. Instead they weather the storm and then Da Silva is left exhausted and ultimately finished.
Either way this fight goes, you should definitely have these fighters in your lineups. For single entry contests I am on the Salvador side because he hasn’t let me down like Da Silva has twice already when I’ve rolled the dice with him in my lineups. Whichever side you choose, this one should be a banger and very high level entertainment.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-550 FDGTD)
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK ($18) vs. CHRIS DAUKAUS ($13)
This feels almost like I should just copy and paste the write up from last week's Pavlovich versus Tuivasa matchup. It is basically the same exact story. Someone will be put to sleep in this contest, who remains a mystery until it happens.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a high level kickboxer who has been circling the top five ranked heavyweights in the world for quite some time now. Unfortunately for him everytime he gets into the number three area he runs into a buzzsaw and gets propelled back down the ranks. Rozenstruik has intense power and great technical striking.The glaring issue for him is volume. He fights a lazy style fight generally where he is stuck waiting for that big counter strike instead of initiating the action.
Chris Daukaus will be standing on the other side of the cage from him, and is the underdog in this matchup. The line between these two is much, much, wider than it should be in my opinion, and to be fair I am not even sure that it is wide in the right direction. Daukaus is the more accurate striker of the two, the fighter more willing to initiate action, and certainly the better defensive striker. I honestly believe that he is the better fighter in this matchup everywhere, but the two consecutive knockout losses for Daukaus are a concern for me.
My general approach for fights like this is to take the underdog at the value price regardless of how I feel about the fighters. This week it just happens that I actually believe the underdog is the rightful favorite anyway. You will want exposure to both of these fighters if you are playing multiple entry contests.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-250 FDGTD)
CAMERON SAAIMAN ($22) vs. STEVEN KOSLOW ($8)
This is one of the more obscure fights on the slate in my opinion. You have two guys here who are largely untested, and yet you have a line that is insanely wide in favor of the contender series fighter, Cameron Saaiman.
Saaiman did win by knockout in the third round of his Contender Series fight and that is the only thing I can base this line being this wide on. Somewhere in the mix the people betting this heavily on him must have overlooked that he only landed 57 significant strikes in three rounds, and while that isn’t incredibly low volume, it certainly isn’t pushing a pace either. They also must have overlooked that he was taken down the only time his opponent tried and controlled for almost 2 minutes.
The tape on his opponent, Steven Koslow, is limited but the one thing that was very clear on the tape that was there is that he doesn’t mind striking one bit. In fact every fight I watched of his he looked very comfortable on his feet prior to the fights going to the ground where he looked absolutely at home. It is very hard to tell exactly how good or not good someone is when you only have tape that isn’t against UFC competition to base an assessment from, but this guy looks like he is more than capable of giving Saaiman some troubles to me.
In a multiple entry environment I would probably choose to be over the field on Koslow and under the field on Saaiman, but I would definitely have solid exposure to both fighters. In a single entry contest I am almost surely going to take my chances with Koslow for the salary savings.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
