With so many high priced fighters that you will need in your lineup this week, the make or break on your success will certainly be the value fighters you decide to roster. Thankfully, UFC 273 does not disappoint in that regard either. We have several fighters that can be plugged in for both cash and tournament contests, and many that not only should score well in a loss but a few that I actually expect to win the fight as well.
If you read the core article you know that our salary situation is pressed this week. If you didn’t read the core plays article, you can do so here. I have two directions that I can go. For cash I have enough room for one high priced fighter and then the rest need to be super value. For tournaments, unless I choose to move off of Yan to save salary, I only have room for value plays under $7600 or so. Let’s get into the options that I am looking at this week.
$9000 AND UP
IAN GARRY – $9200
Ian Garry is the last remaining fighter in the 9k range that I would consider playing in my contests. If Garry does the thing that the UFC wants him to do, which is to finish Darian Weeks quickly, then he obviously would be well worth his price tag. Unfortunately, I just can’t get the beginning of his last fight out of my mind and if that happens with Weeks, I think Garry might lose the fight.
So the risk is there, and for me, that makes him a tournament only choice. Yes, he could score a million points, but he could also reasonably lose this fight in my opinion. If that happens he scores almost nothing because it would be either a knockout or tons of takedowns and potential control time on the ground from Darian Weeks.
Make no mistake, Garry is another of the up and coming hype trains in the UFC, and he might actually live up to it. Until he has a few more fights under his belt in the UFC that don’t include him getting rocked early however, I will be a bit leery to fully commit to him in my lineups. I would prefer to wade in and get familiar with the water temperature.
TOURNAMENT
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK – $8600
This fight is going to be a finish in my opinion and because of that I want a bit of exposure to it. I don't really know which direction that finish will come from, because honestly I could see it playing out either way. I think that if the fight can remain standing it's pretty clear that Jairzinho Rozestruik will knock out Marcin Tybura. Rozenstruik has the clear striking advantage along with the power advantage as well. Unfortunately for Jairzinho, just like all of his other fights, that is his only path to victory. Rozenstruik is not a complete martial artist.
The only pause I have on this pick is that Rozenstruik has been taken down in the past, and he is similar to a very plush mattress on his back. Tybura will need to get the fight on the ground to win and I would imagine that he and his team know that, so my exposure level to Rozenstruik will be commensurate with how confident I am in his takedown defense when I make my final lineup edits.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
MACKENZIE DERN – $8200
If you have been watching We Want Picks videos this week, you will have heard numerous rants regarding Mackenzie Dern’s inability to get the fight to the ground and her speech patterns. I won’t dispute those accounts, because both are very true. That being said, I am a fan of Mackenzie Dern, and I see an opportunity here.
The reality of this fight is that it likely stays standing and Dern will probably be pointed to death ending in a pretty clear decision. Her opponent, Tecia Torres, does not really have the size or power to end this fight in my opinion however. Nor do I expect her to get a finish by volume because I don’t think she will risk getting close enough to do so – because each time she does is an opportunity for Dern to be successful in getting this fight to the mat.
So because I don’t believe in Torres’ ability to finish this fight, that makes Dern a really live tournament play for me. If Dern can manage to get this fight on her terms she will submit Torres or rack up the points on the ground trying to. Is it unlikely she can get the fight there, sure, but if she does she will probably score big and make the optimal. Worth a bit of exposure in my opinion.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ALEKSEI OLEINIK – $8100 / JARED VANDERRA – $8100
I really believe that you could flip a coin here and have a real shot at choosing the winner. I have a bit of concern putting my money in the hands of either of these gentlemen, but I am fairly confident we will get a finish in this fight, which means you will need to in order to win tournaments.
One the Oleinik side, he has the ability to get the fight to the ground despite what many people will tell you. He averages slightly over two takedowns per fifteen minutes and that comes with almost a 50% accuracy. Add in that Jared Vanderra only has a 20% takedown defense and there is some cause for concern. If this fight gets to the ground I have no doubt that Vanderra is going to sleep.
Unfortunately, there is also a decent chance that the fight stays standing and in this outcome we are all but guaranteed an active high scoring fight from Vanderra – including a potential for a finish through volume. He has a significant advantage in output, and striking skill, he just normally lacks the power to put many people away. This time around though the chin he will be taping can and will break under only a moderate level of pressure.
Hard fight to actually pick the winner on, but I am virtually positive that the fight will not go the distance, so I will be strongly considering mixing both fighters into different tournament entries.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
Monkey Knife Fights is a unique prop based daily fantasy game. Click here to claim your 100% deposit match up to $100. There are no strings attached!
” use_button=”on” button_text=”PLAY NOW” button_link=”https://www.monkeyknifefight.com/signup?btag=a_2011b_71c_&affid=1455&utm_source=incomeaccess&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=IA&pid=incomeaccess_int&af_sub1=a_2011b_71c_&siteid=2011″ text_alignment=”center” content_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” image_alignment=”center” image_hover_animation=”pulse” overlay_icon_color=”#bc1e2c” _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”20px” subtitle_font=”Archivo|700||on|||||” subtitle_text_color=”#bc1e2c” subtitle_font_size=”18px” body_font=”Archivo|500|||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” header_text_align=”center” header_text_color=”#bc1e2c” background_enable_color=”off” custom_button=”on” button_text_size=”18px” button_text_color=”#FFFFFF” button_bg_color=”#fbae17″ button_border_width=”4px” button_border_color=”#fbae17″ button_border_radius=”10px” button_font=”Archivo|600||on|||||” button_use_icon=”on” button_icon=”||fa||900″ button_alignment=”center” module_alignment=”center” overflow-y=”hidden” custom_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” link_option_url=”https://www.monkeyknifefight.com/signup?btag=a_2011b_71c_&affid=1455&utm_source=incomeaccess&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=IA&pid=incomeaccess_int&af_sub1=a_2011b_71c_&siteid=2011″ link_option_url_new_window=”on” title_font_size_tablet=”16px” title_font_size_phone=”14px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” subtitle_font_size_tablet=”14px” subtitle_font_size_phone=”12px” subtitle_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” button_text_size_tablet=”16px” button_text_size_phone=”14px” button_text_size_last_edited=”on|phone” border_radii_item=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_item=”2px” border_color_all_item=”#000000″ border_radii_figure=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_figure=”1px” border_color_all_figure=”#000000″ box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][/wdc_content_carousel_child][wdc_content_carousel_child admin_title=”EarnU Blurb” photo=”https://wewantpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Earn-U.jpg” photo_alt=”Click Here To Play EarnU” title=”GUARANTEED TO WIN” subtitle=”USE PROMO CODE ‘WWP'” body_content=”
EarnU is a crypto based game where you literally cannot lose betting on sports and eSports. If you lose – don't worry – it is like the wager never happened!
” use_button=”on” button_text=”PLAY NOW” button_link=”https://betuearn.com/invite/wwp” text_alignment=”center” content_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” image_alignment=”center” image_hover_animation=”pulse” overlay_icon_color=”#bc1e2c” _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”20px” subtitle_font=”Archivo|700||on|||||” subtitle_text_color=”#bc1e2c” subtitle_font_size=”18px” body_font=”Archivo|500|||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” header_text_align=”center” header_text_color=”#bc1e2c” background_enable_color=”off” custom_button=”on” button_text_size=”18px” button_text_color=”#FFFFFF” button_bg_color=”#000000″ button_border_width=”4px” button_border_color=”#000000″ button_border_radius=”10px” button_font=”Archivo|600||on|||||” button_use_icon=”on” button_icon=”||fa||900″ button_alignment=”center” module_alignment=”center” overflow-y=”hidden” custom_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” link_option_url=”https://betuearn.com/invite/wwp” link_option_url_new_window=”on” title_font_size_tablet=”16px” title_font_size_phone=”14px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” subtitle_font_size_tablet=”14px” subtitle_font_size_phone=”12px” subtitle_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” button_text_size_tablet=”16px” button_text_size_phone=”14px” button_text_size_last_edited=”on|phone” border_radii_item=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_item=”2px” border_color_all_item=”#000000″ border_radii_figure=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_figure=”1px” border_color_all_figure=”#000000″ box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][/wdc_content_carousel_child][wdc_content_carousel_child admin_title=”DK Blurb” photo=”https://wewantpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/FREE-DraftKings-League.jpg” photo_alt=”Click Here To Join Our Free Draft Kings League” title=”Join Free League” subtitle=”MEMBERS WIN $50″ body_content=”
Our league is free to enter. Each week we give away $50 to the winner! Remember that you need to be a member of our YouTube channel to qualify.
” use_button=”on” button_text=”PLAY NOW” button_link=”https://wewantpicks.com/playdraftkings” text_alignment=”center” content_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” image_alignment=”center” image_hover_animation=”pulse” overlay_icon_color=”#bc1e2c” _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”20px” subtitle_font=”Archivo|700||on|||||” subtitle_text_color=”#bc1e2c” subtitle_font_size=”18px” body_font=”Archivo|500|||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” header_text_align=”center” header_text_color=”#bc1e2c” background_enable_color=”off” custom_button=”on” button_text_size=”18px” button_text_color=”#FFFFFF” button_bg_color=”#53d337″ button_border_width=”4px” button_border_color=”#53d337″ button_border_radius=”10px” button_font=”Archivo|600||on|||||” button_use_icon=”on” button_icon=”||fa||900″ button_alignment=”center” module_alignment=”center” overflow-y=”hidden” custom_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” link_option_url=”https://wewantpicks.com/playdraftkings” link_option_url_new_window=”on” title_font_size_tablet=”16px” title_font_size_phone=”14px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” subtitle_font_size_tablet=”14px” subtitle_font_size_phone=”12px” subtitle_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” button_text_size_tablet=”16px” button_text_size_phone=”14px” button_text_size_last_edited=”on|phone” border_radii_item=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_item=”2px” border_color_all_item=”#000000″ border_radii_figure=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_figure=”1px” border_color_all_figure=”#000000″ box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][/wdc_content_carousel_child][wdc_content_carousel_child admin_title=”PrizePicks Blurb” photo=”https://wewantpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/PrizePicks-100-Deposit-Match.jpg” photo_alt=”Click Here To Play Prize Picks” title=”100% DEPOSIT MATCH” subtitle=”Prop Based Fantasy” body_content=”
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy game where you are competing against the lines – not the sharks. Enjoy a 100% deposit match up to $100 with this offer.
” use_button=”on” button_text=”PLAY NOW” button_link=”https://wewantpicks.com/playprizepicks” text_alignment=”center” content_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” image_alignment=”center” image_hover_animation=”pulse” overlay_icon_color=”#bc1e2c” _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”20px” subtitle_font=”Archivo|700||on|||||” subtitle_text_color=”#bc1e2c” subtitle_font_size=”18px” body_font=”Archivo|500|||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” header_text_align=”center” header_text_color=”#bc1e2c” background_enable_color=”off” custom_button=”on” button_text_size=”18px” button_text_color=”#FFFFFF” button_bg_color=”#000000″ button_border_width=”4px” button_border_color=”#000000″ button_border_radius=”10px” button_font=”Archivo|600||on|||||” button_use_icon=”on” button_icon=”||fa||900″ button_alignment=”center” module_alignment=”center” overflow-y=”hidden” custom_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” link_option_url=”https://wewantpicks.com/playprizepicks” link_option_url_new_window=”on” title_font_size_tablet=”16px” title_font_size_phone=”14px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” subtitle_font_size_tablet=”14px” subtitle_font_size_phone=”12px” subtitle_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” button_text_size_tablet=”16px” button_text_size_phone=”14px” button_text_size_last_edited=”on|phone” border_radii_item=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_item=”2px” border_color_all_item=”#000000″ border_radii_figure=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_figure=”1px” border_color_all_figure=”#000000″ box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][/wdc_content_carousel_child][wdc_content_carousel_child admin_title=”FanDuel Blurb” photo=”https://wewantpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/FanDuel-Daily-Fantasy-Games.jpg” photo_alt=”Click Here To Play FanDuel” title=”GREAT GPP CONTESTS” subtitle=”SINGLE ENTRY – BIG PRIZES” body_content=”
FanDuel is not something that we normally cover, but they do have great single entry contests. The scoring is also a bit different allowing new strategy!
” use_button=”on” button_text=”Play Now” button_link=”https://fndl.co/xagajkz” text_alignment=”center” content_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” image_alignment=”center” image_hover_animation=”pulse” overlay_icon_color=”#bc1e2c” _builder_version=”4.16″ _module_preset=”default” title_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” title_text_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”20px” subtitle_font=”Archivo|700||on|||||” subtitle_text_color=”#bc1e2c” subtitle_font_size=”18px” body_font=”Archivo|500|||||||” body_text_color=”#000000″ header_font=”Archivo Black|700||on|||||” header_text_align=”center” header_text_color=”#bc1e2c” background_enable_color=”off” custom_button=”on” button_text_size=”18px” button_text_color=”#FFFFFF” button_bg_color=”#1493ff” button_border_width=”4px” button_border_color=”#1493ff” button_border_radius=”10px” button_font=”Archivo|600||on|||||” button_use_icon=”on” button_icon=”||fa||900″ button_alignment=”center” module_alignment=”center” overflow-y=”hidden” custom_padding=”20px|20px|20px|20px|true|true” link_option_url=”https://fndl.co/xagajkz” link_option_url_new_window=”on” title_font_size_tablet=”16px” title_font_size_phone=”14px” title_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” subtitle_font_size_tablet=”14px” subtitle_font_size_phone=”12px” subtitle_font_size_last_edited=”on|desktop” button_text_size_tablet=”16px” button_text_size_phone=”14px” button_text_size_last_edited=”on|phone” border_radii_item=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_item=”2px” border_color_all_item=”#000000″ border_radii_figure=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” border_width_all_figure=”1px” border_color_all_figure=”#000000″ box_shadow_style=”preset1″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][/wdc_content_carousel_child][/wdc_content_carousel]
TECIA TORRES – $8000
Torres has the advantage in this fight, she is clearly the dominant striker of the two and most likely will win this fight. The one thing that Torres doesn’t have however is enough power to actually put Mackenzie Dern out.
Torres only has one knockout in the UFC and it was through volume in a ground and pound situation. If she even sniffs that position with Dern she will be submitted in my opinion, so I don’t expect her to even be in a position to win by stoppage. She still does average almost five significant strikes per minute however, so she will be active enough to get you a decent cash score for her salary in a win. Tournament contests would be questionable in my opinion, she would be close to being worth it in a win, but unlikely to make the optimal.
CASH ONLY
UNDER $8000
MICKEY GALL – $7400
This is one of the considerations that I am a bit tepid on. I do believe that Mickey Gall wins this fight, but unfortunately his level of consistency in the UFC has not been encouraging. Ultimately I just believe the experience difference between Gall and his opponent, Mike Mallot, is too great to overcome for Mallot.
Gall has a well rounded game anywhere this fight will go, and for $7400 that makes him a smart play in my opinion. Could he lose to Mallot? Sure, he could. I do not believe he gets finished by Mallot however, so even in a loss I would expect a decent score from Gall.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ASPEN LADD – $7300
One of the things that plays into this will be how Ladd looks on the scales. She has had trouble making 135 in the past and if she looks like death at the weigh-ins I would strongly consider moving off of her in this spot.
If she looks decent on the scale however, this is a great spot to play Ladd because her opponent is now Raquel Pennington who likes to impose her will and somewhat “slow bully” her opponents. She does not have a prayer to be able to do that to Aspen Ladd in my humble opinion.
Pennington likely has the technical striking advantage, but her output is low which somewhat nullifies that advantage. Power, wrestling, and ground control would all be advantages to a healthy Aspen Ladd – and I believe she is going to control this fight pretty much start to finish. I could even see potential for a ground and pound stoppage. At the very least though, we should get three rounds of scoring as I have no faith in Pennington finishing Ladd.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
DANIEL SANTOS – $7200
This is the punt play outside of the big three fights on the card. Daniel Santos is coming in and fighting Julio Arce. In Arce’s eight UFC fights, half of them have ended by knockout in one direction or the other, and it seems as though Arce can get caught up in a fire fight.
In a brawl I believe that Santos has at least a 50% chance to win this fight – potentially even having the advantage in that scenario – so the salaries here are insane. They really don’t even accurately reflect the betting lines either, Santos is a steal at $7200.
The only reason he stays as a tournament only fighter for me is because his ownership will probably remain low with so many other better known value plays available on this card. That would be extremely risky in cash games, whereas in tournaments – especially multi-entry – it is win or bust so I can afford to take more chances.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
These plays will give me plenty of room to play around with my cash lineup as there will be several hundred dollars left to move up from someone assuming that I don’t stack the Yan/Sterling fight.
If I do decide to stack the Yan/Sterling fight then we likely will have to look to move down somewhere and hope for the best with someone that I identified as a tournament play. Either way there are plenty of options this week for a spectacular card.
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
JOIN THE WE WANT PICKS FREE DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE HERE!
*Remember you need to be a member on YouTube to qualify for the cash prize*
