This upcoming UFC 273 card is exciting. We have numerous big name fights taking place and a load of talent on the undercard as well. UFC events like this turn me into a kid on Christmas morning. I wake up, and my entire day is devoted to preparing myself for an enjoyable evening watching the fights. Unfortunately with a card this exciting, it is always more difficult in my opinion to build a good DraftKings lineup.
As always my main focus is cash games, they keep the lights on. Unfortunately it is almost impossible to cram all three of the favorites from the three big fights on this card and end up with anything that resembles a solid lineup. For that reason there will need to be some concessions made.
Thankfully we happen to have a few really solid value plays available, especially in the mid-range. Those will be the plays that make or break a lineup this week as everyone and their fourth cousin will have two of the main three fights in their lineup, with the remaining fight the cheaper fighter from that contest. So while they may not be surprising, let’s get into this week’s core plays.
THE CORE PLAYS
ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI – $9500
I can say with a decent level of confidence that Volkanovski is probably going to be the chalkiest fighter on this card. And for good reason. Volkanovski is simply the better fighter in every aspect here, except for maybe power, but even there he isn’t so outmatched that it would be cause for concern.
Volkanovski can pretty much do as he pleases in this fight and get a finish inside the distance in my opinion. The Korean Zombie has been knocked out in a handful of his losses across the UFC and the WEC, isn’t getting any younger, and is very hittable with only a 55% striking defense.
If somehow TKZ wins this fight the four people that rostered him are going to look like geniuses, but Volkanovski is the clear choice here. I could see maybe taking a flier on The Korean Zombie for tournaments when they are multiple entry, but for my cash and single entry contests Volkanovski is going to be some chalk that I choose to eat.
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV – $9400
If there was one fighter on the card that could compete for most owned fighter, it would be Khamzat Chimaev. The hype train is chugging along with this fighter, and I would be lying if I didn’t say that I have my ticket punched for the ride already. The man is an absolute stud, the level of raw violence he projects in the octagon is something to appreciate. All of that being said, Gilbert Burns is no bum and represents a HUGE step up in competition for Chimaev.
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Khamzat has fierce striking, with an insane striking differential of plus eight and 77% striking accuracy across his four fights in the UFC. Every single fight has been a finish, and he has two of those by submission as well. He also averages over four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. I am behind Khamzat here and will be on DraftKings to something very close to 100% exposure.
MARK MADSEN – $7800
Now it is time to find some value for the core so that I am not completely broke when it comes time to fill out the lineup. For me that value in my core is going to be Mark Madsen. Call me a sucker, but anytime I can get the better wrestler in a matchup for less money on Draftkings, that is a choice that I will support almost every time.
Madsen comes into this fight averaging over four takedowns per fifteen minutes, but his opponent Vinc Pichel is also averaging over three. The difference between these two guys is that Madsen is going to be able to stop takedown attempts and Pichel has an abysmal 25% takedown defense.
Madsen is an opportunity to be on the winning side of a fight with several takedowns while saving money on salary and that makes him a must for cash games. I doubt we see a high scoring finish here however, so I will be moving off of him for tournaments.
THE PIVOT
PETR YAN – $9200 / ALJAMAIN STERLING – $6900
This is where it gets a little fuzzy. Petr Yan is definitely who I believe will win this fight, but you can’t just roster every expensive fighter on the card, they don’t allow that. So from the main three fights on this event, I believe this fight to be the one where the lower priced fighter has the best chance.
Again, I really don’t think Sterling wins this fight, but I could see him winning the first round and maybe even the second. From there I expect Yan to take over, similar to how the last fight went prior to the knee. The one thing that I am not sure of however is if Yan can actually put Sterling away. I think Aljamain Sterling has the ability to survive, even if he is being bullied badly, and get us to a decision.
For me this makes Sterling my cash play from this contest. Safe floor in my opinion and has the best potential for upside of the three main underdogs. For tournaments, Yan will probably see more action in my lineups, but that will surely leave us scraping stuff together to fill out the remainder of the lineup. This fight could be great to stack for cash contests as well, but only if you can find the value plays to make it work.
