Hello and welcome to We Want Picks! My name is Josh and in today’s article I am going to be searching for the value I need to round out my UFC 272 Draftkings lineup. In the core article this week I discussed almost being forced to play Rafael Dos Anjos – at least for cash anyway – and then I loaded the rest of my core with high salary fighters.
So now I have to turn my attention to finding the best value I can for the remainder of my lineup for both cash games and tournament contests. There is a decent amount of salary to work with for cash due to using Jorge Masvidal, but tournament wiggle room is almost non-existent because of using Colby Covington at $9400 in that. The move off of Marina Rodriguez for tournaments might have to happen. Her fight most likely goes the distance anyway.
If you need to refresh yourself on the previous article please click here to read it now. Below I am going to break up the content into salary ranges and then designate if I like that fighter for cash contests, tournament contests, or both.
$8000 AND OVER
TAGIR ULANBEKOV – $9000
Ulanbekov is set to match up with Tim Elliot at UFC 272. Elliot is a savvy veteran that always tends to get some “live dog” love from the MMA community. While I agree that there are many reasons to love Tim Elliot, I just can’t come to terms with the idea of him winning this fight in any kind of decisive fashion.
Both fighters are very takedown heavy, and Tim Elliot might also have a slight advantage in the striking department, but it probably won’t matter. Ulanbekov is just a different kind of beast wrestling and grappling. I don’t believe in Elliot stopping takedowns and I don’t believe in him getting back up once he is down.
This would be a play that I would consider for both tournaments and cash. There is a possibility of Elliot being the one landing takedowns to keep in mind. He could steal a round or two and possibly steal a decision. If Ulanbekov is the one landing his takedowns however he is going to score a ton in either a decision or a stoppage.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
SERGHEI SPIVAC – $8700
Spivac is without question the better martial artist in this fight against Greg Hardy. He has the advantage in fact in pretty much every facet of this fight except power. If this fight goes as most, including the odds makers, seem to think it is going to go then Spivac would be a great play for cash.
That being said, I don’t think I can justify spending $8700 for someone that could reasonably be unconscious in round one for my tournament lineup. So this would be a cash only play for me, but to be honest, I likely won’t have any exposure to Spivac.
When he finishes Hardy in the first minute by submission and scores huge please feel free to return to this article and tell me how stupid I was to ignore the Polar Bear.
CASH ONLY
DEVONTE SMITH – $8500
Smith is probably my favorite high risk tournament play on the card. Devonte Smith has not had a fight yet in the UFC that hasn’t ended in a knockout, in either direction. In this particular contest however, I am not sure Ludovit Klein has the power to knock him out – even despite the somewhat flimsy chin Smith has shown in other contests.
Both fighters like to strike and do so at range, so I think this fight is going to play out exactly how both fighters would prefer it to. The difference in my opinion is that we have seen Klein not like being pressured and being forced to fight off his back foot.
Could Devonte Smith lose this fight? Absolutely! If he wins however he is going to score 100+ fantasy points doing it. So for me, that makes him an ideal tournament choice.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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BRYCE MITCHELL – $8300
Bryce Mitchell is another really solid grappler on this card and once he gets there he will be looking for the submission. He has been dominating his UFC opponents to this point in his young career and it has been impressive to say the least.
His preferred style of fighting will keep the strike count low in the fight and most of it will be spent on the ground with big numbers for control time – if the fight goes the way he wants it to – and I am not personally ready to concede that it will just yet.
If it does though, his score will be off the charts in comparison to his salary and would make one hell of a tournament play for someone. Probably not me – but someone.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
UNDER $8000
EDSON BARBOZA – $7900
On the list of things that excite me when it comes to combat sports, there are not many things that rate higher than the sound a calf kick from Edson Barboza makes. Barboza is a merciless striker that always puts on a show. Not only that, but he is no stranger to fighting the absolute best of the best, so the experience is on his side.
Really what this fight is going to come down to is whether or not Bryce Mitchell can get his hands on Barboza or if Edson can keep the fight striking at range. This is probably biased due to my overwhelming appreciation for the performances that Barboza has given over the years, but I think I like him to do just that.
In his career only three people have really controlled him as they pleased, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Kevin Lee, and to a lesser degree, Makwan Amirkhani. Is Bryce Mitchell on that level? Maybe, but it hasn’t really been proven yet. Until it has, and UFC 272 might just be when it does, I think I prefer to roll with the fighter that gives me the ownership leverage in this contest.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
GREG HARDY – $7500
There really isn’t much to say about this play. There is a world where Greg Hardy could come out and make short work of Spivac in a highlight fashion. If that happens, it guarantees Hardy a spot on the optimal lineup at only $7500 salary.
This play would be incredibly high risk – high reward – and should be played as such. I probably wouldn’t want Hardy on most of my tournament lineups, but I could see a low level of exposure just in case that highlight knockout happens.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
MARYNA MOROZ – $7400
To be perfectly clear I don’t really want to target this fight at all on my lineups. Moroz however could be a decent punt play on a cash line. I expect the fight to go the distance, and if you choose to play Moroz you better hope it does, because a finish will almost certainly favor Agapova.
Female fights tend to be fairly solid punt plays in cash however because you will normally get three rounds of scoring. So even in a loss she should put up 40 points or so. The downside is that in a win she probably only scores around 65. It is a fairly safe floor for cash if you are struggling with available salary.
CASH ONLY
RENATO MOICANO – $7200
If you think Moicano wins this fight, and I have to say I think I am in that camp myself. You could 100% pivot from Rafael Dos Anjos to Renato Moicano and gain decent ownership leverage here while still having exposure to this fight.
Personally, while I have my reservations about Dos Anjos getting a win here, I don’t think I can ignore rostering the favorite at a cost of only $100 more. The play does have the merits above however, so I figured I would mention it.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
ALEX OLIVIERA – $7100
Go ahead, take a moment and post below how insane you think I am for listing Cowboy here. Hear me out though. Most importantly, I have sworn off ever relying on Kevin Holland again in life. Beyond that however, Oliviera is a wild man. If he was able to get this win it would come in one of two ways.
The first possible way that Oliviera can win is that he gets into a wild fire fight with Holland and catches him with something good, which would score a ton. The second way Oliviera could win would be the smart way – not generally his style but one can hope – of using Kevin Holland as a mattress for three rounds. Mattress mode would also score very well, especially at only $7100.
Does it happen? Probably not, but I think anyone reasonable knows that at $7100 you are in the camp of probability.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
YAN XIAONAN – $6900
This is a super punt play here. Yan will most likely not win this fight, but she will most likely go the distance. Given her incredibly high output, and her opponent’s incredibly high output, you could get a pretty solid score from her even in a loss at only $6900.
On the flip side, she could win. It is a long shot, but it's possible. If she does then anyone that made this play is likely going to be near the top of their contests. Her salary is so low that simply getting a win, even a decision, will shoot her right into potentially being on the optimal lineup.
Also for cash, she comes with a decent floor and it wouldn’t be a horrible fight to stack if you need salary help. DO NOT STACK fights for tournament contests, you will need 6 wins to win a tournament, and sometimes even that isn’t enough – you need the right six.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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