Thiago Moises is the better pure grappler in this matchup. But Kron Gracie was the better pure grappler in his matchup with Bryce Mitchell and while that is an absurd comparison to make, the point here is that offensive BJJ and defensive BJJ are different as is competition BJJ and fist fighting. I think Trey can get the takedowns because as good of a grappler as Moises is, his takedown defense isn't great. Once they get to the ground, Trey's defense will be good enough to avoid to being submitted. I have a half a unit on Trey at +145.

Thiago Moises

Thiago Moises is a very slick grappler who does a great job of staying dangerous while being composed. Meaning he is maintaining position but still working towards submissions. Even though he is primarily a grappler who averages more than 2 takedowns per fight, he has technical striking and can hang with most people. He uses solid low kicks to set up his takedowns and is surprisingly young given his experience. He is coming off the battering loss to Ludovit Klein where he was dropped twice and taken down.

Trey Ogden

Trey Ogden is an athletic grappler with solid takedowns and decent power in his hands. He is absolutely a grappler but if you run through his tape you'll see that even in his submission wins, hes dropping his opponents with strikes before snatching things up. His takedowns are really well timed and he does an excellent job of lowering his level and shooting blast doubles as his opponents come in. He is coming off the impressive underdog win over Loik Radzhabov where he had 4 takedowns.