Thirteen fights in total for UFC 316 this weekend up in Jersey. Headlined by Merab vs O’Malley 2 for the Bantamweight Belt, and Pena vs Harrison for the women’s Bantamweight Belt. Overall it should be a good card, 13 fights means the ownership should be spread out, however they added 3 fights late and the mid tier pricing on DK is non-existent now. You will have to nail the underdogs and hope your high end guys go over 10X and are optimal, as we have a lot of fighters with finishing upside on this card.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
AZAMAT MURZAKANOV
He is 4-0 in the UFC with 3 knockout wins. He averages a knockdown per fight, has 2 takedowns in his 4 fights, and is fighting Ribeiro who is on a 2 fight win streak….albeit against a mediocre Machado who neither fighter deserved to win, and then submitted Nurgozhay after getting a knockdown also.
MERAB DVALISHVILI
Merab is truly the machine, he scored over 130 last time they fight at UFC Noche, he averages well over 100 per UFC fight and will chain wrestle all night long. He shot like 30 takedowns against Umar, controlled O’Malley all night last time they fought, and no matter what Suga has said about blaming a torn Labrum, unless he catches Merab with a knockout shot he will be spending the majority of this fight on his back on the mat.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
KHAOS WILLIAMS
He lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute, and with that averages a knockdown almost every fight. He does not wrestle, has above average takedown defense, and has 8 wins by knockout including 7 first round finishes. Gustafsson is making his debut, and looks like a solid fighter, but there are levels and he has not faced anyone of Khaos’ pedigree yet.
SERGHEI SPIVAC
This is going to be a matchup of Spivac the wrestler vs Acosta the kickboxer. Serghei averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute, and in 6 of his 7 UFC wins he has scored over 100 DK points. His only losses in the last 5 years are to Aspinall, Gane, and Almeida. Give me the tested vet Polar Bear here to put a whoopin' on Waldo.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
VICENTE LUQUE
This one is kind of hard to pick because Holland is so fun, but you literally never know which version of him is going to show up to fight. He has a 6 inch read advantage over Luque, but Vicente is coming off a really nice submission win and he averages more significant strikes per minute, more takedown attempts, and has a better takedown defense. Give me the dog with 100+ point upside if he finishes Holland quickly.
JULIANNA PENA
The price point on her is crazy, I get that Harrison rag dolled Holm and was won every fight in the UFC, but she clearly gassed her last time out and was in survival mode. The weight cut is crazy for Harrison, Pena has shown she can go 25 minutes before and I think if she can survive the early pressure and takedowns from Kayla she can wear her out and take over in the championship rounds. Any win at her price point will be optimal.
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