This weekend’s UFC 311 card is absolutely stacked and should be an amazing 14 fight card. We get two championship fights with Team Khabib trying to take down Arman and Merab, a light heavyweight title contender bout between Jiri and Jamahal, a great lightweight fight that will move someone 1 step closer to a title shot with Dariush and Moicano, and that is just on the main card! This one is going to be a fun card top to bottom with some big favorites who should get finishes.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
PAYTON TALBOTT
The kid is elite, 89% finish rate as a professional, coming off a quick knockout in his last fight. He is a rising star at bantamweight and as a -1200 favorite and the highest priced fighter on the card, he will be extremely popular in any build that includes Arman or Merab as they let you fit his expensive salary. He has scored 100+ his last 2 fights on DK scoring and expect another.
JAILTON ALMEIDA
He is undersized for a heavyweight but he may be the best wrestler in the division. He rag dolled Blaydes for their first round before getting caught shooting and KO’d with elbows, but he is relentless on chain wrestling and will look to keep Spivac on his back while looking to submit him. He has a 100% finish rate in his last 20 fights with 13 subs and 7 TKO/KO’s, and at 9500 he still pays off his salary in his method of victory because he averages 110 in his wins.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
RENATO “MONEY” MOICANO
This is a very big step up in competition for him, as his best wins are the previous two coming in over Turner and St Dennis. Dariush was in the title contention and talked about as a serious contender to beat Islam before his b2b KO losses. Moicano has higher output on the feet, they are equal on takedown defense/takedowns per fight, and Money is very slick with his submissions with half his wins coming via submission.
BOGDAN GUSKOV
As of now he is not priced yet on DK but I think Bogdan Guskov will be in the 8k range and would be my next pick. He is 2-1 with back to back finishes of Pauga and Spann. He gets Billy Elekana in his debut and I am going to side with Bogdan’s 100% finish rate as a professional fighter.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
AILIN PEREZ
I am assuming the missing weight last fight will serve as a wakeup call. She gets Rosa who alternates wins and losses her last 7 fights. Rosa now gets a bigger, stronger grappler who is averaging over 5 takedowns per fight. At 7600 this would allow her to score optimally in a win, as Perez is averaging over 100 points per win so far.
ARMAN/MERAB
These two guys are going to be insanely chalky for their price points as they get 5 round title fights. I would lean Merab over Arman if picking one, as I think Merab has the better odds, and Umar has fought much lesser competition on his way up to this fight. Merab is a fierce pressure fighter who will look to shoot constantly and control the fight with positioning himself in places to not get hurt. He averages 6 takedowns per 15 minutes so add in another 2 rounds and at his price point just getting 6+ takedowns will more than pay off the salary, and if he wins there is 0% chance he is not optimal.
CHECK OUT ADP DFS FOR MORE
If you are interested in playing DFS for other sports, you would probably also enjoy the content that I provide on my website www.adpdfs.com. We have an entire team of DFS professionals that cover most major sports and do so from a data drive perspective that has us enjoying green screens week in and week out. Hope to see you over there!
