The PFL returns with a super fight event headlined by the MMA return of Francis Ngannou fighting against 2023 PFL champion Renan Ferreira. The event takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and will be broadcast on PPV. The prelims will be on ESPN +. The card takes place on Saturday 1:30 PM ET.
FRANCIS NGANNOU (17-3) vs. RENAN FERREIRA (13-3) – Heavyweight (PFL Super Fights Championship)
Francis Ngannou returns to MMA against the 2023 PFL tournament champion Renan Ferreira. This is Ngannou's first MMA fight since leaving the UFC, and he hasn't fought in MMA since January 2022. He has of course been boxing at the highest level, fighting against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. Ngannou is known as a striker in MMA even though he can wrestle, so him boxing isn't a big concern for me and working strictly on his boxing might do more good than harm. There could be some concern considering the match up though as Ferreira is a very athletic grappler for the weight class. He has been knocking everyone out recently but he has shown submission ability against Fabricio Werdum. I like Ngannou in the fight as I think someone is getting knocked out Ngannou should land first. Ferreira does have a reach advantage though which could make things interesting.
Pick: Francis Ngannou by KO/TKO in round 1. Medium confidence.
CRIS CYBORG (27-2) vs LARISSA PACHECO (23-4) – Women's Featherweight (PFL Super Fights Championship)
This is a fight that Cris and Larissa have been asking for, for a while now. Cris Cyborg of course is the Bellator Champion, and Larissa Pacheco has won the PFL tournament two years in a row now – Notably defeating Kayla Harrison in 2022. Both of these women have big power and there will always be a KO threat for both. Cyborg has been boxing for the last couple of years. Pacheco has been fighting for the PFL tournament for a few years now and showed some greatly improved grappling in her 2022 fight against Kayla Harrison. I am actually picking Pacheco in this fight because I think that she will look for the take downs and that's where she should have a big advantage. It is worth noting that Pacheco has had some pretty bad performances recently though, her first fight since beating Harrison was against Julia Budd and she looked like a totally different fighter to the fighter that beat Harrison. Nonetheless, if Pacheco fights are smart fight with a grappling game plan she has a good path to victory as striking with Cyborg is never a good idea.
Pick: Larissa Pacheco by decision. Low confidence
JOHNNY EBLEN (15-0) vs FABIAN EDWARDS (13-3) 2 – Middleweight (Bellator Middleweight Championship)
This is an odd rematch but I guess there really is no middleweight contenders in Bellator, and the PFL doesn't have a middlewight division. Fabian fights like his brother Leon Edwards but at 185. Eblen is a wrestler and his striking is improving. Eblen was able to beat Impa Kasanganay earlier this year and that is a great win as Impa will probably win the 2024 championship at 205. I don't think much will change here except I don't think Eblen will KO Edwards again, I think he will wrestle to a decision. Hopefully Eblen's contract runs out soon as he will fit into the UFC's middleweight division very well.
Pick: Johnny Eblen by decision. High confidence.
HUSEIN KADIMAGOMAEV (11-1) vs ZAFAR MOHSEN (13-4) – Featherweight
This fight is a set up for Husein to look good. Husein is a take down spammer but he has good wrestling. He times his take downs well and regularly gets them in the middle of the cage. Mohsen is going to be significantly smaller than Husein and I have also seen him take down repeatedly by lesser wrestlers than Husein. Husein is a big signing for the PFL and I think they have him on a decent contract as the UFC were interested in signing him as well. With a PPV main card spot I think they are wanting to get a lot of attention on their new prospect.
Pick: Husein Kadimagomaev by submission in round 2. High confidence.
AJ MCKEE JR. (22-1) vs PAUL HUGHES (12-1) – Lightweight
Even if he wins, this is an odd fight for Paul Hughes to accept. Hughes recently signed to the PFL under the agreement that he would fight multiple times in 2024 and compete in the 2025 PFL tournament. So I expected him to fight a few guys he was expected to beat like Bobby King, but now he is stepping into the deep end against one of Bellator's best lightweights. This is a huge step up in competition for him and I am no sure if he is ready for it just yet. AJ McKee has already proven to be an elite fighter, becoming a featherweight Bellator champion and since being undefeated at 155 lbs, with one of those wins being over the RIZIN champion Roberto de Souza. Hughes is of course going to be a challenge for McKee on the feet, but I think McKee would benefit a lot from grappling against Hughes. Overall it is big step up for Hughes, and McKee has fought at this level for a long time. McKee has also been using his grappling a lot recently, and even against de Souza who is a super dangerous on the ground was able to control him on top.
Pick: AJ McKee by decision. Low confidence.
RAUFEON STOTS (20-2) vs MARCOS BRENO (15-3) – Bantamweight
Raufeon Stots has proven to be a better wrestler than Danny Sabatello, who out wrestled Breno and even submitted him. I don't love MMA math but in this case – the math checks out. Stots is getting older for bantamweight at 35, but hasn't shown signs of slowing down just yet. This is once again a case of a big step up in competition for Breno. Stots is a former Bellator champion and Breno made his Bellator debut just two fights ago. Stots should be able to find the take downs here and he may even get a finish.
Pick: Raufeon Stots by decision. High confidence.
OTHER PRELIMS:
Makkasharip Zaynukov by decision. Medium confidence
Ibragim Ibragimov by submission. High confidence
Mostafa Rashid Neda by KO/TKO. Medium confidence
Tariq Ismail by decision. Medium confidence.
