PFL Europe returns this weekend for what is going to be a great card as they have made some pretty significant additions to their PFL Europe roster. I will admit I am a little unsure how the PFL Europe tournament is going to work but looking at the card it seems like this the first round of the lightweight tournament with the bantamweights fighting in a couple of weeks. The card will be broadcast on DAZN on Saturday 10th May at 12:00 PM.
PAUL HUGHES (13-2) vs. BRUNO MIRANDA (17-5) – Lightweight
Paul Hughes has made a big name for himself fighting for the PFL, with a big win over A.J. McKee and a competitive fight against the Bellator champion Usman Nurmagomedov. His striking is very technical and in the PFL he has proven that his wrestling and grappling defense is legit. His opponent Bruno Miranda is a very fun Muay Thai striker. His take down defense is solid but wasn't able to hold up against PFL's best in 2023. He is pretty much purely a striker who likes to come forward and scrap. He is tough and will put up a solid fight but in my opinion Hughes is better than him everywhere. Miranda is a massive underdog which is a bit disrespectful but aside from a big KO I can't see Miranda winning. It is worth noting that one of the things Miranda does best is work the body, but this isn't a 5 round fight. Hughes is very talented and I think he will be able to find a finish against Miranda who is a pretty good stylistic match up for him.
Pick: Paul Hughes by KO/TKO. High confidence
LEWIS MCGRILLEN (11-1) vs. ALAN PHILPOTT (21-16) – Bantamweight
This is fun match making. I watch a lot of Eternal MMA so I am very familiar with Alan Philpott. Philpott is usually used as a veteran test for local Australian fighters – not already known European stars like McGrillen. Lewis McGrillen is a lot of fun on the feet and he's recently been getting into wars at 135. I worry about his chin long term but he does have decent reach and power. I do truly believe he will be best at flyweight but seems like PFL doesn't have that option yet, and maybe at this point he is too big for 125. When Philpott is pressured or a combination is thrown he freezes. This is a good opportunity for McGrillen to get another big KO against a step down in competition.
Pick: Lewis McGrillen by KO/TKO. High confidence.
CONNOR HUGHES (10 -2) vs. SEBASTIEN DI FRANCO (11-3) – Lightweight Tournament
This looks to be a striker vs. grappler match up. I say that as Hughes was a grappler prior to the PFL but in his last few fights he hasn't look to offensively grapple at all. He is a big guy for lightweight and decent enough striker but in my opinion I find it hard to justify him being -450. Di Franco is going to be smaller fighter in the cage. He looks alright on the feet but nothing special. He is mostly a wrestler but at times he struggles to take his opponents down so often stalls up against the cage. I found it somewhat funny in his fight against Leshukov, Di Franco was able to take down Leshukov in round 1 but then in rounds 2 and 3 Leshukov just rag dolled him. Hughes should win this by decision if he keeps it on the feet but I'm not as confident as the wide odds suggest as we have seen him pressured by Dylan Tuke in the past, and taken down by Jakub Kaszuba in his most recent fight.
Pick: Connor Hughes by decision. Medium confidence.
DECKY MCALEENAN (9-5-1) vs. GINO VAN STEENIS (5-1) – Lightweight Tournament
van Steenis is huge for this weight class. He is 6'1″ with a big frame as well. He is a technical kick boxer who likes to come forwards and occasionally shoots take downs. His wins aren't over the best competition but he has looked pretty good so far in his career. McAleenan is also very tall for the weight class but he is much more thin. He doesn't fight very often and doesn't have great take down defense. He won his last fight by knocking his opponent out pretty quickly after the ref stood them, and he was the one being controlled. van Steenis can mix it everywhere and I favor him wherever the fight goes, he just needs to watch out for McAleenan's submission attempts off his back. van Steenis is -115 which is interesting, I thought he looked much better than the odds suggest.
Pick: van Steenis by KO/TKO. Medium-high confidence.
HAIDER KHAN (9-1) vs. SEAN MCCORMACK (3-2) – Middleweight
Haider Khan is a talented grappler but he is a victim on the feet. This is a step down in competition for him though as he is fighting another grappler who hasn't fought for 2 years.
Pick: Haider Khan by submission. High confidence.
MARK EWAN (6-1) vs. ALKSANDR CHIZOV (10-3) – Lightweight Tournament
I am disappointed in Mark Ewan. I really thought he was going to be the next big thing from Scotland but then he lost a decision to Claudio Pacella who is also in this tournament. He looked decent early but as soon as Pacella started to pressure him, his defense didn't hold up well and he just backed up against the cage. Pacella was able to hurt him when he was backed up against the cage a couple of times in the fight. He is a very good boxer but based on that loss it could be only when he has the control of the fight. He has since rebounded but it was against an opponent with a losing record. This is actually a very similar match up to that Pacella loss. Chizov is also tall for lightweight and has big power in his hands. One thing that is notable is that Chizov's take down defense might be some of the worst I have ever seen. He had Acoidan Duque rocked in the second round with less than a minute left, and Duque just dived at his legs like a zombie and somehow Chizov got taken down. Chizov's striking isn't as technical as Ewan's, but it is worth noting that he does move forward and he can land with power. Maybe we see Ewan wrestle here, even though that isn't really a big part of his game.
Pick: Mark Ewan by decision. Low confidence.
CLAUDIO PACELLA (5-2) vs. GAVIN HUGHES (11-4) – Lightweight Tournament
I honestly think this is a set up for Pacella to win, and then potentially rematch Mark Ewan next round. Gavin Hughes is fun to watch but at this point he is 37 years old and isn't on a great streak. He did win his last fight but he was getting absolutely smoked in round 1 before getting a quick submission in round 2. He is a big lightweight and hits pretty hard but his defense isn't fantastic. Pacella is a come forward striker who backed up his Mark Ewan upset with a win over Oscar Ownsworth, who I don't rate too highly but at least we know it wasn't a one off performance. Hughes is a veteran who is always in a fun fight but I think Pacella can pressure him and land some solid strikes.
Pick: Claudio Pacella by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.
