PFL is back with their regular season this weekend with the lightweights and light heavyweights which should make for a very entertaining card. Headlining are two talented boxers who are definitely going to put on a great show in Clay Collard and Mads Burnell. PFL will be broadcast on ESPN+ on Friday 21st June at 06:00 PM ET.
CLAY COLLARD (25-12) vs. MADS BURNELL (18-6) – Lightweight
It feel like Clay Collard is due to win the championship sometime soon. He has come close many times before but has fallen short. Last year he fought in the finals and lost by decision to Olivier Aubin-Mercier, and in the previous two years lost some decisions that really could have gone his way. Collard is a great MMA boxer as he has professional boxing experience against decent competition. In 2021 he returned to MMA and beat Anthony Pettis in what was a huge fight at the time. Mads Burnell is also a solid boxer with great take down defense – but at featherweight. He had a lot of success fighting for Bellator and fought his way to a title eliminator at 145 lbs against Adam Borics. Since then he has found mixed success. I was unsure of his move to lightweight in the PFL but still picked him to defeat Michael Dufort. He didn't look great against Dufort and I think stylistically Collard is an even tougher fight for him. Collard had a decent scrap against former Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Pitbull in his last fight and I think Collard will use that momentum to defeat Burnell. It is worth noting that Collard took a lot of damage in that fight, even getting dropped at one point and that fight was only two months ago. There will be a size and power difference here and those advantages are on the Collard side. I am picking Collard by KO/TKO.
IMPA KASANGANAY (16-4) vs. JAKOB NEDOH (8-2) – Light Heavyweight
Impa should find a lot of success in this fight. I thought he had a tough match up in the first round of the tournament against Polizzi as Polizzi is a very aggressive wrestler. Impa found no trouble in that fight and won by KO in round 1. In this fight I expect Impa to be looking to get the take downs as it will be the path to victory of least resistance. Nedoh is dangerous striker but that's about it. He made me look like an idiot in his last fight as he got out struck and knocked out by Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov, who I don't consider to have good striking technique. Impa won the championship last year and it seems like he might be on another run to go back to back. I'm picking Impa to win by submission in the first two rounds.
PATRICKY PITBULL (25-13) vs. BRUNO MIRANDA (16-5) – Lightweight
I don't have a very confident prediction for this fight. These guys are both strikers but if someone was to grapple it would be Pitbull. Bruno Miranda has shown great take down defense in the past against ” lower level” wrestlers, but he was out grappled pretty easily by the elite grapplers of the division such as Oliveir Aubin-Mercier and Brent Primus. I thought Patricky had a decent performance against Clay Collard. As I wrote earlier, I rate Collard's striking very highly and Pitbull was able to land some clean combinations on his chin, score a knockdown, and even get a take down. But he took a lot of damage in that fight. Towards the end he was eating a lot of clean unanswered shots but showed a lot of toughness to not get put down. He protested the stoppage, but he was done. That fight was of course only two months ago so this is a quick turnaround for a TKO loss like that. Miranda is a talented Muay Thai striker. He doesn't fight from range like a lot of other fighters with that style though. Instead he throws a lot of hooks and really targets the body. He did lose his last fight convincingly but didn't take a beating like Patricky did. If Patricky is fully healthy I do like picking him in this fight. His striking looked as good as it ever has against Collard and he showed willingness to mix up some take downs which I like to see going into a fight like this. I worry about the damage he took against Collard though. I'm going to pick Patricky to win a decision by mixing up the striking with the grappling. I wouldn't be surprised if Miranda found a KO though as he has underrated power. Low confidence pick in Patricky.
ROB WILKINSON (18-2) vs. JOSH SILVEIRA (13-2) – Light Heavyweight
Rob Wilkinson won the championship in 2022 and was the favourite to win it all again in 2023. However that run got short as he failed a drug test in his first fight in the 2023 season and publicly admitted to cheating with PEDs. He is back now and made a massive statement with a very fast knockout win over Tom Breese in his first fight in 2024. Wilkinson is a talented kick boxer but he showed some offensive wrestling in that 2023 fight against Thiago Santos. Silveira is a talented prospect and he picked up the biggest win of his career against Sadibou Sy earlier this year. That one had an odd ending though as Sy dislocated his thumb while defending a takedown so Silveira won by injury TKO. Silveira is a great fighter but I don't think he has enough to get past Wilkinson. He will likely look to wrestle here but Wilkinson should able to defend most of the takedowns. I'm picking Wilkinson by KO/TKO.
DOVLETDZHAN YAGSHIMURADOV (22-7-1) vs. SIMON BIYONG (9-4) – Light Heavyweight
This is a very winnable fight for Dovletdzhan. He made me look silly when he beat Nedoh with ease and there is potential for him to have another great performance with a finish over Biyong. Biyong is interesting as he was once a very promising prospect but he has been very inconsistent. Sometime he looks great, sometimes he doesn't. He is a big guy for 205 lbs as he is 6′ 5″ with an 80″ reach. He will look much bigger in the cage as Dovletdzhan is 5′ 11″. I don't think Dovletdzhan is the best striker as his striking is sloppy and he is hittable. That wasn't a problem against Nedoh who is a very dangerous guy on the feet like Simon. Dovletdzhan crashed forward a lot with his boxing and the works for take downs against the cage. It's a good matchup for Dovletzhan and a step down in competition from who he was fighting against in Bellator. I'm picking Dovletdzhan to win. It's hard to pick a method as he could win by decision by being busy with the take downs, or find a ground and pound TKO or submission.
ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR (16-5) vs. ALEX POLIZZI (10-4) – Light Heavyweight
Alex Polizzi is a tough style to beat for most fighters but this should be a good match up for Antonio Carlos Junior to find another submission. Polizzi is a wrestler who shoots for takedowns constantly. He has great cardio but his striking isn't amazing. Antonio is a grappler and has very slick grappling for a light heavyweight. He is a former PFL champion as he won the tournament in 2021. He fought again in 2022 but then took some time off. He was on Big Brother Brasil but was kicked off the show because of sexual harassment towards a guest. He looked decent in his return, getting a quick submission over Simon Biyong. Both fighters are going to want to take this fight to the ground and Antonio is the better pure grappler. I am picking Antonio by submission in the first two rounds.
BRENT PRIMUS (13-3) vs. SOLOMON RENFRO (11-5) – Lightweight
I think is a similar match up for Brent compared to his first fight of the season against Bruno Miranda. Both Miranda and Renfro are dangerous strikers for the division. Brent was able to be dominant with his wrestling in his fight against Miranda and he should be able to repeat that performance against Renfro. Renfro has shown he can be dangerous in the PFL but has been out grappled in his last two losses and I don't think this fight will be that much different. I like Brent to win by submission.
GADZHI RABADANOV (21-4-2) vs. ELVIN ESPINOZA (10-0) – Lightweight
I wasn't super high on Elvin Espinoza but he did look very impressive in his last fight which is definitely the most impressive performance of his career. He is a solid striker and was being built up by the PFL as a prospect and has now been put in the main tournament. Rabadanov is a dominant wrestler and I just don't think it's a good match up for Espinoza. We haven't seen Espinoza fight a dominant wrestler before so it will interesting to see how he goes but Gadzhi is much more proven against great fighters in Bellator. I like Gadzhi to win by decision.
OTHER PICKS:
Michael Dufort by submission
Anthony Romero
Brahyan Zurcher
Karl Albrektsson by KO/TKO
CONFIDENCE:
Collard: Medium
Kasanganay: High
Pitbull: Low
Wilkinson: High
Yagshimuradov: Medium
Carlos Junior: Medium
Primus: High
Sy: Low
Rabadanov: Medium
Dufort: Medium
Romero: Low
Zurcher: Medium
Albrektsson: Medium
