Quick picks article for the PFL this Thursday night on ESPN. This week is the light heavyweights and heavyweights.
PHIL DAVIS (24-7) vs. ROB WILKINSON (19-3) – Light Heavyweight
Rob Wilkinson won the 2022 tournament where he looked incredible, but in his first fight in 2023 he failed a test for elevated testosterone and hasn't looked as dominant since. Wilkinson is a talented kick boxer but for some reason he decided to add a lot more wrestling to his game in last years tournament. He looks great when he let his hands go but since that failed test he has been significantly less aggressive. Phil Davis is 40 years old now but he has been looking good recently. He is a wrestler but honestly his fight style is very boring as he does nothing but control once he gets the take down. His boxing is pretty solid as well as he fights behind a solid jab but it's fair to say he doesn't present much striking danger. In this fight I think Wilkinson has a significant striking advantage and the fact he has been wrestling a lot should help him avoid the clinch positions that Davis likes to go for.
Pick: Rob Wilkinson by decision or KO/TKO. Medium confidence.
VALENTIN MOLDAVSKY (13-4) vs. SERGEY BILOSTENNIY (13-3) – Heavyweight
My opinion on Moldavsky has changed given his most recent performance against Linton Vassell. Moldavsky is a well rounded fighter for heavyweight but he has never been able to get to the championship, mostly due to Linton Vassell defeating him a couple of times. I actually thought he won his most recent fight against Vassell but to be honest he didn't look very impressive anyway. He was the more active fighter, landing more strikes overall and initiating the wrestling but he struggled to hold Vassell down. Bilostenniy is a very dynamic striker. He honestly looked really bad on tape prior to his Bellator fights but he has made a lot of improvements recently. He has some highlights in the promotion due to his striking style and surprisingly got a heel hook recently. We have seen him struggle before against opponents that can pressure him though and he isn't very strong in the clinch. If Moldavsky makes this a boring fight he should be able to win this with his wrestling.
Pick: Valntin Moldavsky by decision. Low-medium confidence.
ANTONIO CARLOS JR. (16-6) vs. KARL MOORE (12-3) – Light Heavyweight
Antonio Carlos Jr. (ACJ) is a former PFL champion. Hindsight is 20/20 but looking back the 2021 season was probably the weakest year of the 205 lb division. He went away for a bit to do some reality TV in Brazil and if you know, that didn't go very well for him. He came back last year but honestly looked unimpressive. He has incredible BJJ for this weight class but he does lack everywhere else. Karl Moore is also a grappler but he isn't desperate to get the fight down. I haven't seen him look for take downs much in his most recent fights as his striking is pretty good. He doesn't look the most comfortable on the feet but his striking is effective as he uses his range well. He is coming off a loss to Corey Anderson where I thought his take down defense looked very good, considering how good Anderson is at wrestling. I don't think ACJ can get this fight down consistently and on the feet I favor Moore.
Pick: Karl Moore by decision. Low-medium confidence.
KARL ALBREKTSSON (14-6) vs. SIMEON POWELL (10-1) – Light Heavyweight
This is a tough fight to call because Powell hasn't looked very good lately. Powell was once the star of PFL Europe, but since stepping up in competition he has been exposed a bit. He looked uncomfortable against Nedoh, and then Bellator tried to give him a lay up and he nearly got knocked out in the first round. Powell relies on his size and athleticism too much. He is a striker but he never sets anything up, just throwing one strike at a time with a lot of power. Nedoh was able to back him up easily and the pressure took away all of Powell's tools. Albrektsson is a pressure fighter. He is always coming forward throwing combinations and looking for take down attempts. This makes him a bad match up for Powell, but the problem is that I have to admit he isn't very good. I really liked Albrektsson and was very excited when he got signed by Bellator, but I have to admit I have overrated him a lot. It is worth noting though that he did beat Dovlet Yagshimuradov who was able to knock out Kasanganay easily to win the championship last year. It is also worth noting that Albrektsson recently lost by KO at a local show 5 months ago, and he got rocked multiple times in that fight. Stylistically this is a good match up for Karl, but I have to go with the power of Powell. If Karl looks to wrestle often he could get this done but I'm going to side with the danger factor and finishing ability of Powell.
Pick: Simeon Powell by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
ALEXANDR ROMANOV (18-3) vs. TIM JOHNSON (18-11) – Heavyweight
The UFC shouldn't have cut Romanov. Yes, he didn't have the most exciting fights once he took big step ups in competition, but heavyweight is a division that lacks talent and Romanov is a top 25 heavyweight in the world. Johnson is old and slow, he loses quickly to good wrestlers. This should be an easy round 1 finish for Romanov.
Pick: Romanov by submission or KO/TKO. High confidence.
OLEG POPV (19-2) vs. KARL WILLIAMS (10-2) – Heavyweight
I think this is a very short notice fight as most sports books still have Popov vs. Vassell listed. Karl Williams was in the UFC until recently, and he lost a decision which sparked a lot of controversy. He was a pretty boring wrestler and apparently he was told he was going to get cut if he didn't strike more. He lost that fight and here he is fighting for the PFL. On short notice this is a very tough debut. Popov is very one dimensional as he can only really wrestle, but he does wrestle well. He shoots for take downs very regularly and chains his take downs attempts together well. In the UFC, we only really saw Williams fight against strikers, but he did take down former D1 wrestler Jimmy Lawson on the Contender Series. I do think Popov can get his take downs on Williams here especilaly on short notice.
Pick: Oleg Popov by decision. Medium confidence.
SULLIVAN CAULEY (6-1) vs. MARCELO NUNES (11-2) – Light Heavyweight
This is an interesting one as Cauley is coming back after a very long time off, he hasn't fought since 2023. At Bellator he was a solid prospect picking up a lot of finishes quickly against lower level guys. We have only seen him in the cage once since his loss to another prospect Luke Trainer where he did show a small weakness in his grappling. That could be a concern here as he fights Nunes who is a grappler. Nunes has been fighting at heavyweight where he found some mixed success but his horrible striking defense as well as bad cardio let him down against any step up in competition. I wouldn't call this a step down in competition but Cauley is definitely not the toughest guy Nunes has fought, but Nunes is now 36 and cutting down to 205 lbs. I don't think the move down a weight class at this age is going to do him any favours expecially since I think he is going to have a huge speed disadvantage at this weight class. He was slow on the feet at heavyweight and he stood square with no defense at all. The odds are interesting as I don't think Cauley should be a big favourite given the layoff, but I do think Cauley is going to have the opportunities on the feet to land big.
Pick: Sullivan Cauley by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
RODRIGO NASCIEMNTO (11-3) vs. ABRAHAM BABLY (5-1) – Heavyweight
We have another former UFC fighter making his PFL debut. This one is a bit more confusing as less than a year ago Nascimento actually was in the main event of a UFC card less than a year ago. Nascimento is also a heavyweight grappler. His striking is okay but it's nothing special. It's mostly his grappling where he finds success but he just likes to wrestle to get control time. Bably is a very exciting prospect to watch out for. He does definitely look a bit undersized being 5'11” and weighing in at 240 + lbs, but he does have talent. His boxing isn't too bad but it's mostly his wrestling where he finds his success. He can chain together take downs pretty well and his defense is solid too. He is coming off a loss to Slim Trabelsi who is one of the best heavyweight prospects in the world, and a lot of people argue that he won that fight. I think as long as this fight is on the feet Bably should be able to close the distance and land some shots with his boxing, and even get a take down on occasion.
Pick: Abraham Bably by decision. Low confidence.
ALEX POLIZZI (11-4) vs. RAFAEL XAVIER (13-8) – Light Heavyweight
This is a wrestler vs. striker match up. Xavier is a very talented striker who uses range very well, and he has a lot of power early. He nearly knocked out Simeon Powell. Polizzi is a very aggressive wrestler who shoots for take downs very regularly. He is a nightmare match up for Xavier but he is a walking case of CTE honestly. He has no striking defense at all and because of it he has taken so much damage in his career, his chin is a concern. If Xavier doesn't get a KO in round 1 I think Polizzi can take over with his wrestling,
Pick: Alex Polizzi by decision. Medium confidence.
