PFL is back for another card of the first round of their 2025 tournament. This card will feature the middleweights and lightweights, two of PFL's best divisions in my opinion. I have taken a bit of extra time to write this article for a couple of reasons – Mostly because multiple fights have already been cancelled and replaced, but also because last week was not a good week for my picks. More than half of that card was on less than a weeks notice, and to my surprise a lot of the short notice underdogs came through. This card will be broadcast on Friday at 04:40 PM ET on ESPN 2.
IMPA KASANGANAY (18-5) vs. FABIAN EDWARDS (13-4) – Middleweight
Impa Kasanganay was a welterweight when he fought for the UFC in 2021. He then went on to win the $1 million championship in the PFL at light heavyweight. At this point I like him at middleweight and he had a very competitive showcase bout against Johnny Eblen in early 2024. Impa Kasanganay at this point of his career is a very well rounded fighter. He did get knocked out in his last fight for the 2024 championship, but he is a very capable striker who likes to pressure. He will then look to use his wrestling and grappling to earn some control time. Fabian Edwards is the brother of Leon Edwards, and it isn't unfair to say that they fight in similar ways. Like Leon, Fabian has technical striking which really stands out at this weight class. In the past what has let him down has been his take down defense and although that has improved, he has two losses to Eblen where he crumbled under the pressure. For Impa to win this fight he needs to get Fabian moving backwards, and try to use that wrestling to get take downs up against the cage. Edwards does have talent and he is a very high level striker for this weight class, but I have to pick the more well rounded fighter in this match up. I don't love MMA math, but if you want to use it you could look closely at Impa Kasanganay's fight against Eblen and see that he held up a lot better than Edwards did. I think there is a pretty good argument that if Impa wins this fight, he would be the favourite to win the tournament.
Pick: Impa Kasanganay by decision. Medium confidence.
DALTON ROSTA (9-1) vs. SADIBOU SY (17-8-2) – Middleweight
Sy made the move from welterweight to light heavyweight last year and it didn't work out great, and I think fighting at middleweight will be a better option. Sy is 38 years old but is a former PFL champion at 170 lbs. He used to use his height and length to keep his opponents at range. Moving up one (or two) weight classes has taken away that advantage though. 6'3″ fighters are more common at middleweight and above than they are at welterweight. He does still hold a significant height and reach advantage in this match up still. Dalton Rosta is a very aggressive wrestler. He's always coming forward throwing bombs and looking for take downs. He is coming off a very impressive win against Norbert Novenyi Jr. who has been touted as the next big thing for a very long time. In that fight he was able to clearly win the first two rounds by getting take downs and ground and pound. He did completely gas out in round 3 though but he was pushing a ridiculous pace in the first two rounds before that happened. Sy does have good take down defense but that was against welterweights. Rosta isn't the biggest middleweight but he does train at ATT (if you know, you know) and will be coming forward the whole fight looking for control. This fight does feel very dog or pass and I'm sure the lines will flip throughout the week but as a pick I am going to go with Rosta.
Pick: Dalton Rosta by decision. Low confidence.
GADZHI RABADANOV (24-4-2) vs. MARC DIAKIESE (18-7) – Lightweight
We all loved Diakiese until we didn't. He was once a super fun to watch muay thai striker but then out of nowhere become a very boring wrestler. Gadzhi Rabadanov won the championship last year against Brent Primus who is old, but a better wrestler than Diakiese. Rabadanov is a great wrestler himself and also a dynamic striker. These days it's hard to know what Diakiese's game plan will be but we have seen in the past that if he take downs get defended he has somehow forgotten how to strike. I genuinely think that Rabadanov is better everywhere.
Pick: Gadzhi Rabadanov by KO/TKO or decision. High confidence.
MADS BURNELL (20-6) vs. JAY JAY WILSON (10-1) – Lightweight
This is a fun grappling match up. Mads Burnell is a former European No-Gi BJJ champion and a very aggressive wrestler. I think his striking looks somewhat stiff but he is a very effective boxer. He shoots for take downs very regularly and looks to win by control. This is an interesting match up as I would say Jay Jay Wilson's biggest weakness is his take down defense, and once he gets taken down he can be controlled. However, he recently moved up to lightweight and has looked a lot better. His most recent fight was 18 months ago, but that was against Mansour Barnaoui who is a fantastic grappler, and it was actually Jay Jay who was able to win the grappling in that match up. Even though he take down defense isn't great he will be troublesome with his grappling. He was controlled for a very large amount of time against Vladimir Tokov but actually won that fight from his back throwing up submission attempts and elbows. His striking is pretty good as well, and I would say he has a bit more options on the feet. Being 5'11 he has range against a lot of his opponents so can find home for low kicks. This is a tough one to call as Mads will certainly be looking to get this fight down to the ground. I know it was 18 months ago but Wilson's win over Barnaoui was very impressive and perhaps he could put the smaller opponent Burnell in some tough situations. Burnell is also a former featherweight and I think that he has looked pretty small in his lightweight fights in the PFL. Wilson is a -175 favourite at the time of me writing this and I would not be surprised if the lines get tighter as the week goes on.
Pick: Jay Jay Wilson by submission. Low confidence.
BRENT PRIMUS (15-4) vs. VINICIUS CENCI (8-2) – Lightweight
This is hilarious match making. I need to know who Cenci's manager is because he has a good one. Cenci fought on the Contender Series in 2022 after can crushing his way to a 7-1 record. He has only fought once since (technically three times, but the record padding was so obvious sherdog and tapology don't put them on his record) and now gets a short notice fight in PFL's 2025 tournament against former Bellator champion, and last's years PFL finalist. His most recent fight was on a UAE Warriors card but for some reason I can't find coverage of it anywhere. I can find UAE 46, 47, 49, but not UAE Warriors 48. On the Contender Series Cenci was able to show off his grappling, but his striking didn't look great as he left himself wide open. He put Sam Patterson in a couple tough spots early but ended up gassing out. Brent Primus is 40 years old now so there is some concern there, but he is a really good wrestler. His striking isn't incredible but he does have decent forward pressure boxing that you can expect from most top wrestlers. The only worry I have is an early Cenci submission as you do need to credit the fact that he is a great grappler, but aside from that Primus should roll through him. Cenci might scare us all early with a submission attempt but I think after that Primus should be able to push and get a finish in round 2 or 3. P.S. If you have footage of Cenci vs. N'tchala please send it to me, maybe I am geo blocked but I can't find that fight.
Pick: Brent Primus by KO/TKO or submission. High confidence.
JOSH SILVEIRA (13-4) vs. MIKE SHIPMAN (17-4) – Middleweight
This will be Silveira's first fight at middleweight since 2021. The odds on this one are interesting as Shipman is currently a +205 underdog, and at that line he will certainly fight for your money. Shipman is very well rounded but I wouldn't say that he stands out in one particular area. He is a good striker, and a good wrestler. He is coming off back to back knockout wins over wrestlers where his take down defense looked fantastic. He was able to defend all of Steven Hill's take downs and beat him up on the feet. Against Eslam Abdul Baset he was able to defend the take downs and then get his own take downs before working some hard ground and pound. Josh Silveira is 1-3 in his last 4, with that win coming by injury stoppage against Sadibou Sy. Silveira has still looked pretty game and I think the move to middleweight is a positive one. He was never the biggest light heavyweight, but he should still hold a size advanatge against Shipman. I also think that Silveira is more athletic than Shipman's last two opponents. I just saw Shipman's take down defense look great recently, but I do think Silveira's skill set should lead to him pressuring forwards, landing some good shots before shooting for good take downs. Steven Hill was shooting blind single legs against Shipman, and Baset is a boring clinch merchant so all of his attempts were obvious. I think Shipman is a live underdog here and he will fight for your money, but I like Silveira's chances to mix it up a bit better than Shipman's previous opponents.
Pick: Josh Silveira by decision. Low confidence.
CLAY COLLARD (25-14) vs. ALFIE DAVIS (17-5) – Lightweight
This is such a hard fight to pick. My gut says Collard should win this one as it is a very good stylistic match up, but realistically he has not looked great these last couple of seasons. Clay Collard is a fantastic boxer, and although he was a journeyman, he had a pretty respectable professional boxing career as well in my opinion. That has translated well into MMA and if things were different (getting brutally robbed in 2021 and 2022 by the judges) I think his career could have turned out a lot better than it has, and he would likely have a PFL championship. These last two seasons haven't been kind to him though. He has always put on fun fights and has taken a lot of damage in his career because of it. Last year he did take on wrestlers, but he wasn't able to pressure them as much as he was able to in the past. The Brent Primus loss in understandable but Mads Burnell is a guy he would have beaten soundly in his prime. He did get a TKO win over former Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Pitbull, but that was an absolute war where eventually Patricky's body gave up before Collard's did. Alfie Davis is a kickboxer who is very light on his feet and fights with the ‘Wonderboy' footwork where he is always bouncing around. He looks awesome going forwards but if he is pressured he looks a lot worse. His take down defense is alright, but nothing special. We have seen him struggle with pressure recently, against Barnaoui he was getting hurt in the clinch, and Oscar Ownsworth was pressuring him easily. I know Ownsworth was shooting take downs so Davis needed to worry about that, but Ownsworth is a terrible striker and I think even this version of Clay Collard would finish him in a couple of rounds. When Davis fights a striker vs. striker match up he does look a lot better though. It isn't Collard's game at all but since Collard is a pressure boxer, he would be very wise to at least attempt take downs to make Davis think about them. If he does that then he Davis will be a lot more open on the feet. Davis is a multiple time kickboxing national champion, but even then I think he isn't super defensively sound. His chin can be very exposed when he backs up, and especially when he is throwing punches while moving backwards. Because this is a striking fight, maybe Davis looks a lot better than he has in the past against guys who pose a take down threat, and we know that Collard is either past his prime or the damage has added up as he isn't as dominant of a presence in the cage that he used to be. If Collard can threaten take downs the boxing will open for him. If not, Collard will still be the one moving forward so we will see how Davis can deal with the pressure.
Pick: Clay Collard by decision. Low confidence.
AARON JEFFERY (15-5) vs. MURAD RAMAZANOV (12-2) – Middleweight
This is another very well matched fight, and I think the lines should be closer. Both of these guy are wrestlers, and both of these guys are willing to make the fight boring with wrestling up against the cage. They are both decent strikers but not amazing, if you would consider what Ramazanov does as effective striking. Aaron Jeffery likes to strike but his striking defense isn't great. If he gets hurt once he just resorts to wrestling against the cage. He is one of those guys who also looks good when he is in control, but doesn't when he is getting pressured. A good example of this is when he fought John Salter. John Salter is one of the oldest men on the planet but he was able to pressure Jeffery, take him down, and eventually break him. That's all Murad Ramazanov wants to do. Murad wants to shoot take downs, get them, and then look for a finish. His striking doesn't really exist. He doesn't throw strikes on the feet he just walks forwards. This results in him looking great if he gets the take down but absolutely terrible if he can't, like we saw in the Shamil Musaev fights last year. This fight is really tricky for me to pick as I really don't think that Ramazanov should be -215. He hasn't shown a well rounded skill set at the highest level of PFL, and he won't be able to use size to get take downs up a weight class. He was pretty big at welterweight but now he is going to be a 5'11” middleweight. We have seen Jeffrey crumble against pressure fighters like the ghost of John Salter, but on the other hand he was able to defeat Dalton Rosta by defending his take downs. Murad also has pretty bad cardio. If Aaron Jeffery can defend take downs and not engage in the clinch with Ramazanov he has a pretty big striking advantage, even though his striking isn't perfect. Jeffery is also 6'2″ so he should have a size advantage. Very close fight to call. I feel like if Murad wins it's going to be a domination in the grappling department, but on the other hand he looked so vulnerable against the first person who was able to defend his take downs. I'm picking Jeffery as he is definitely more well rounded.
Pick: Aaron Jeffery by decision. Very low confidence.
ROBERT WATLEY (15-3) vs. TONY CARUSO (10-2) – Lightweight
Watley is pretty old to be considered a prospect being 35 years old, but he has looked good recently. He was signed to the PFL in 2018, but then took a long layoff. He is a wrestler first, but he can box somewhat well. He beat a couple talented pospects in his last couple of fights and showed great cardio to get a 4th round finish against the undefeated Morquez Forest, who put up a good fight. Tony Caruso (Antonio Caruso) is a high volume striker but his take down defense isn't very good. I think this is as simple as Watley should get take downs against the high volume, but not super dangerous striker. Keep in mind this fight has been put together on less than one week's notice.
Pick: Robert Watley by decision. Medium confidence.
