PFL's 2025 season continues with the second event of the first round this Friday. The first card was very entertaining with many finishes and it seems like the new format of an 8 man single elimination tournament has worked. This card features the men's bantamweights and women's flyweights. The card is also a bit of a mess as quite literally half of these fights are short notice replacement bouts and I have little doubt there will be more changes as well so I will try my best to keep this article up to date. The fights will be broadcast on Friday at 08:00 PM ET on ESPN 2.
TAILA SANTOS (22-4) vs. JULIANA VELASQUEZ (13-2) – Women's Flyweight
I would be very surprised if Santos lost this fight. All three of Julianna Velasquez losses have come to Liz Carmouche and she lost in the same way every time. The smaller Carmouche was able to control her against the cage and get take downs. They did the trilogy in the PFL last year and in that fight Carmouche was also able to find striking success. Considering Velasquez fought Carmouche 3 times and looked worse every single time tells me she isn't making any improvements between fights. She even got taken down by Lisa Mauldin which was a lay up for her. I think Santos has this fight covered on the feet as Velasquez striking defense isn't very good because she doesn't move her head. I also think Santos is going to have a grappling advantage too. Santos was able to overpower Carmouche in moments of their bout, especially in the first round where she nearly locked in a choke. MMA math doesn't always work but if Santos can out grapple Carmouche, and Carmouche can out grapple Velasquez, Santos should be the be able to take down and control Velasquez too.
Pick: Taila Santos by decision or submission. High confidence.
LEANDRO HIGO (23-6) vs. JOSH RETTINGHOUSE (20-5) – Bantamweight
This is a good match up for Leandro Higo. Rettinghouse is a guy I haven't seen in a while but it's because he has been padding his record in very small promotions. Rettinghouse is a veteran who made his MMA debut in 2009 but has never made it to a bigger promotion than M-1 Challenge or WSOF (WSOF is what PFL is now) in his career. He was on The Ultimate Fighter season 29 but lost in his first bout on the show to Brady Hiestand. Rettinghouse is pretty good everywhere but not great at anything in particular. He has a lot of quick finishes but if you look deeper into his record most of these come to very low level competition. He is a pretty quick striker who throws combinations well but he can get caught with his chin up in the air. His take down defense isn't amazing either. Leandro Higo just beat a better fighter than Rettinghouse in his last fight when he defeated James Gallagher in Ireland. In that fight Higo mixed in the striking with some grappling to win a decision. He did show a weakness to leg kicks in that match up though. Higo is very patient and could be a frustrating fighter to watch if you have bet money on him, because he is very low volume and doesn't shoot for take downs very often. He likes to wait for the opportunity to strike or shoot, instead of being aggressive and creating these opportunities himself. I don't think Rettinghouse has the power to knock out Leandro Higo, and I don't think he will be able to defend the take downs when they come. Rettinghouse has lost by submission a few times early in his career, and he was caught in an armbar against Alex McGowan so there could be opportunity for Higo to find a finish. If Higo was to finish Rettinghouse, I'd predict it to be by rear naked choke as he is very good at getting his opponents back. It is also worth noting that Higo was preparing for Magomed Magomedov who withdrew and Rettinghouse has stepped in as the short notice alternate. Magomed Magomedov would have been a much tougher opponent and would have been my pick to win the whole tournament.
Pick: Leandro Higo by decision or submission. High confidence.
FRANCESCO NUZZI (10-1) vs. MANDO GUTIERREZ (10-3) – Bantamweight
This fight is confusing as Francesco Nuzzi was booked to fight Matheus Mattos. But then Mattheus Mattos pulled out, only to step back in on short notice against Jake Hadley. To my understanding Nuzzi has had a full camp and Gutierrez has accepted this on short notice. Nuzzi is a dynamic striker with a lot of tools to find a KO. He has shown decent take down defense recently and he will need to use that here and Gutierrez is a grappler. Gutierrez has competed on the Contender Series and The Ultimate Fighter but has fallen short both times. His striking isn't amazing and he is going to be in trouble against the very slick Nuzzi if he doesn't get the take downs. My only concern for Nuzzi in this match up is his inactivity. The skill set is there but he has only fought 3 times in 4 years, with one of those wins being by split decision against Benardo Sopaj. I think Nuzzi finds the KO here but I wish he had been more active so I could get a better read on how good his take down defense is, especially since he is such a big favourite at -325 at the time of me writing this article.
Pick: Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.
KASUM KASUMOV (16-1) vs. JUSTIN WETZELL (10-2) – Bantamweight
This is another short notice fight, this time with Justin Wetzell stepping up on short notice. Wetzell is a talented guy and I thought we would find him in the UFC, but at 33 years old the promotion must have not been interested. Wetzell is a wrestler. He set up a lot of his take downs with his striking with is pretty good as he can mix in boxing with kicks and knees. He is quite big for the weight class and I wouldn't be surprised if he has the size advantage in this match up. Kasumov fights exactly how you would expect him to. He remind me a lot of Umar Nurmagomedov in a way. He wants to get take downs and once he does he has very strong top control where he will land a lot of ground and pound. In Bellator he fought a couple guys who were throwing up submissions on him but he was able to stay safe. Kasumov has also shown in his Bellator career that he has to cardio to push a hard wrestling pace for 15 minutes, and considering Wetzell has taken this fight on short notice, I think it will be hard for Wetzell to keep up with the wrestling pace in rounds 2 and 3.
Pick: Kasum Kasumov by decision. Medium-high confidence.
LIZ CARMOUCHE (22-8) vs. ILARA JOANE (12-9) – Women's Flyweight
This is a pretty easy fight for Carmouche on paper. With that being said, she is 41 years old now and this is where we might see her start to slow down. I say this is an easy fight for her because she is best at what Joanne is worst at. Joane is a striker and that's pretty much it. Joane can get taken down by high level wrestlers and submitted by high level grapplers. I think Carmouche has proven that she is both. It is also worth noting that Carmouche usually is at a size disadvantage but for this match up she won't be. The only reason I can't have high confidence in Carmouche is because of her age, but she really should be able to win this with her grappling.
Pick: Liz Carmouche by submission or decision. Medium confidence.
MATTHEUS MATTOS (14-3-1) vs. JAKE HADLEY (11-4) – Bantamweight
I have a pretty good record picking PFL fights but it's tricky fights like these that I struggle to predict. This is Jake Hadley's fight fight since being released from the UFC after his embarrassing performance against Cameron Smotherman. It is also worth noting that these guys were both scheduled to fight different opponents before this match up was put together. Mattos is an quick striker with a lot of different strikes in his arsenal. He mostly throws explosive boxing combinations. His striking defense is also very good as his movement makes his opponents miss a lot. We all know Hadley from his run in the UFC. He was at flyweight where he struggled to make a name for himself and then he moved up to bantamweight. On short notice he boxed up and exposed Caolan Loughran, but was then boxed up by Smotherman on short notice. Hadley is a talented grappler but it seems like in his last few fights he has been relying on his boxing a lot more. Mattos was taken down and controlled a lot by Kasum Kasumov, but I think that is more due to Kasumov's wrestling than anything else as Mattos has showed above average take down defense against other opponents. We don't know if Hadley is going to come with a grappling heavy style as he only shot for 1 take down against Caolan Loughran (he was winning the striking so this makes sense), and only two take downs against Cameron Smotherman despite getting tuned up on the feet. If Hadley strikes with Mattos I think he is in trouble. Mattos can also shoot for take downs himself, like he did against Richard Palencia but I don't think that would be the best idea. He does have grappling as he was throwing up submission against Kasumov, but once Kasumov got him down he couldn't get back up again. I'm picking Mattos as the underdog in this match up, he is + 110 at the time of me writing this. I don't know if I am confident enough to bet on it though and I am unfortunately 0-1 in underdog predictions this PFL season.
Pick: Mattheus Mattos by decision or KO/TKO. Low confidence.
JENA BISHOP (7-2) vs. KANA WATANABE (13-3-1) – Women's Flyweight
This is a hard fight to predict as well. It is grappler vs. grappler, so I am going to pick Jena Bishop as I think her BJJ is going to put Watanabe in some very tough positions. Kana Watanabe is a high level grappler whou could have potentially won a Bellator title at one point. She is very one dimensional though and her striking is not very good at all. She relies on her wrestling to win fights and that's a problem as her opponent is a former world champion in no-gi BJJ. Bishop does lack the striking and wrestling as you would expect but she has still managed to find a lot of success in the Bellator and PFL cage. I think this fight gets the ground and Bishop starts looking for submissions.
Pick: Jena Bishop by submission. Very low confidence.
ELORA DANA (7-0) vs. DIANA AVSARAGOVA (6-1) – Women's Flyweight
This is not a high level fight. On paper Elora Dana looks really good with many finishes, but watching her fights I wasn't very impressed. She is very sloppy and keeps her hands very low. She doesn't have much striking defense and mostly just swings heavy if her opponents get close. Her grappling is decent and she has strong control if she can get into a dominant position. I have never been impressed with Diana and it was obvious that Bellator were giving her lay ups. She ended up losing to Justine Kish in her last bout anyways. Diana is actually a pretty good wrestler but for some reason chooses not to wrestle. Her striking is pretty technical but she is so slow and because of this struggles to land anything without getting caught herself. I was very ready to fade Diana here as Elora is a pretty hyped up prospect that many felt was UFC bound. After watching her tape though I'm not super impressed and can't feel confident in her. I am going to pick Elora Dana to win this fight though as she throws with a lot more intent than Diana does and is definitely going to land the harder shots.
Pick: Elora Dana by decision. Low confidence.
MARCIRLEY ALVES (12-4) vs. VILSON NDREGJONI (11-4) – Bantamweight
This should be a fun fight between two high level strikers. Villson Ndregjoni was rumoured to have signed with the UFC at some point last year but that obviously didn't happen. Ndregjoni is a big guy for bantamweight and he will have a size advantage here. He is a patient yet powerful striker and picks his shots well. He likes to stand in close range with his opponents and throw counters. He does wrestle as well and he probabaly will look to wrestle here. Marcirley Alves is a small bantamweight in general but he is going to be very small in this match up. He is a striker and he throws a lot of volume, barely a few seconds go by without him throwing some type of strike. He mostly throws leg kicks and this will be effective against Ndregjoni who will be looking to take him down. He was recently dominated in the wrestling by Savarjon Khamidov and although Khamidov is good, he offered nearly nothing off his back and wasn't able to get up. I have talked about Ndregjoni in the past and I didn't think he was very good, but I have been impressed by his recent fights. If I didn't watch his fight against Justic Torres I would have picked him. Justice Torres is very similar to Alves, where he doesn't hit super hard but he throws a lot of volume. That fight was over 5 rounds, but Torres was able to land his volume on Ndregjoni and find a lot of success striking with him. I am very concerned about the size of Alves though because he is so small it will be a factor in his ability to stop the wrestling of Ndregjoni. I'm going to pick Alves as I think he can land the volume, but if Ndregjoni fights with a wrestling heavy game plan I think he could win that way.
Pick: Marcirley Alves by decision. Very low confidence.
EKATERINA SHAKALOVA (8-2) vs. SARAY OROZCO (8-6) – Women's Flyweight
I have some concern about Shakalova's weight cut as she has never fought at flyweight before and both of her last two fights were at featherweight. She has decent enough striking for the division but her accuracy is a bit terrible so must of her punches hit air, even if her opponent is standing still. She charges in, throws a boxing combination and then bounces out. It would be effective if she was able to land anything. Saray Orozco wins her fights by clinching against the fence. I do not have high hopes for this fight. I do think that Ekaterina can defend any take downs though and if Orozco gets pressured she just puts her hands out and backs away so Ekaterina should find success just pressuring and throwing volume.
Pick: Ekaterina Shakalova by decision. Medium confidence.
