PFL is back for their 2025 season and they have completely changed their format. The tournament doesn't involve a points system anymore and is now a single elimination tournament. I think this is definitely for the best as it will be much less confusing and should result in a better product overall. The first round 1 card features the welterweights and the featherweights. The card will be broadcast on ESPN + for the prelims and ESPN 2 for the main card on Thursday at 07:00 PM ET. Please note that I am away from home at the moment dealing with a family matter so I don't think I'll be getting a video out on this card, but I will be doing videos for every other PFL card this year.
P.S. PFL is running a ‘bracket challenge' where fans can predict every tournament fight. Don't quote me on this, but my understand of the prizes is that if you can predict a perfect bracket, you will win up to $100,000. There are also much smaller runner up prizes as well. It is free to enter on the PFL MMA website so I recommend doing so.
JASON JACKSON (18-5) vs. ANDREY KORESHKOV (28-5) – Welterweight
This should be a striker vs. striker match up. Jason Jackson is the former Bellator champion where he managed to upset the 27-0 Yaroslav Amosov in a great performance where he let his hands go and showed great take down defense. Jackson is a pretty big welterweight with power and solid all round striking. He can be pretty inconsistent though. If his opponent is pressuring him, he does tend to struggle and back up a bit. When he is in control of the fight, his pace picks up a lot more. Depending on the match up, he is capable of offensively wrestling himself. Andrey Koreshkov is a dynamic striker with a big arsenal of strikes. He throws a lot of kicks and isn't afraid of throwing spinning attacks. We have seen him shoot for take downs on occasion such as in the Lorenz Larkin rematch, but I don't think he will wrestle here. Jackson has shown good enough take down defense to shut down Amosov so I don't think this will be much of a factor here. On the feet, Koreshkov will likely be the aggressor and I can see him throwing more volume. At this point in his career though we are seeing Koreshkov slow down and that chin won't last forever. I'm picking Jason Jackson as I think he has more tools to win. He has more power and out of the two he is more likely to wrestle. Given the fact that this is a single elimination tournament, I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson is willing to make this fight boring to secure the win.
Pick: Jason Jackson by decision. Medium confidence.
JESUS PINEDO (23-6-1) vs. ADAM BORICS (19-2) – Featherweight
We haven't seen Pinedo fight since he won the $1 million grand prize in 2024. In that season he showed his great striking, defeating Gabriel Braga in the finals which was actually a rematch from their first round match up. He also knocked out Brendan Loughnane who is a guy many picked to be the favourite to win the tournament. Adam Borics was at one point a big Bellator prospect but inactivity and a bad loss to Patrico Pitbull has hurt his stock a lot. He is a big guy for this weight class and typically attacks with high volume. His take down defense is pretty good but he was taken down in his last fight by a former bantamweight Enrique Barzola. He shouldn't have to worry about that in this fight though as Pinedo is also a very tall striker for 145 lbs. I do like Pinedo in this match up. Although Borics is a 5'11” featherweight, he won't be the taller fighter in this match up so I'm intrigued to see how he deals with that. Pinedo also has a reach advantage which he uses very well as most of his offensive strikes come from long range. We haven't seen Pinedo fight in nearly 18 months since he won in 2023, but Borics himself has been inactive, fighting only once since his bad loss to Pitbull 2 and a half years ago. I like Pinedo's striking here and he should be able to effectively use his reach advantage to win a decision against a tough Borics, or maybe find a KO.
Pick: Jesus Pinedo by decsion. Medium confidence.
MAGOMED UMALATOV (17-1) vs. LOGAN STORELY (16-3) – Welterweight
I am pretty confident Umalatov wins this fight, but -310 is very wide. Umalatov is coming off his first loss to Shamil Musaev who looked incredible in last years season. Umalatov is an interesting fighter as in the beginning of his PFL career he was mostly a striker. Only recently he started to really implement some offensive wrestling and although he has been winning fights, he hasn't been as dominant of a force as he is winning decisions instead of getting knock out wins. Logan Storely is a former Bellator champion, winning the belt in a somewhat controversial decision against Michael Venom Page. He is 100% a wrestler, and doesn't really offer too much more. He has found mixed success since joining the PFL, but it seems like he just can't quite beat the top guys. I consider this a bad match up for Storely. Umalatov is a talented striker and the fact that he has been wrestling a lot more will help him in this match up. Of the two, I like Umalatov's striking and he should be able to defend the take downs of Storely. Maybe Umalatov could attemp his own take downs but I think the obvious game plan for Umalatov to win is to keep the fight standing.
Pick: Magomed Umaaltov by KO/TKO. Medium-high confidence.
JEREMY KENENDY (19-5) vs. MOVLID KHAYBULAEV (21-0-1) – Featherweight
Khaybulaev is my pick to win the whole tournament. Not sure where he has been though as he has been very inactive, last fight against Tyler Diamond 1 year and 9 months ago in a fight that wasn't a tournament bout. He won the tournament in 2021 and we haven't really seen him since aside from those two fights in 2023. The inactivity is concerning but does have a great skill set to win the tournament as most of his competition are strikers. Jeremy Kennedy is a well rounded veteran who fought for the Bellator title a year ago. He fought recently against Gabriel Braga for the PFL but was out classed on the feet. Kennedy won't make it easy for Khaybulaev as historically he does have good take down defense, but I don't think he is dangerous enough to give Khaybulaev any major scares. Khaybulaev is a wrestler who chooses position over submission. He can be somewhat boring so I would expect him to wrestle his way to a decision here.
Pick: Movlid Khaybulaev by decision. High confidence.
MUKHAMED BURKHAMOV (17-2) vs. THAD JEAN (8-0) – Welterweight
Burkhamov is the underdog in this matchup at +205 which was unexpected. I went into tape study trying to find a way to pick him as a big underdog but I couldn't. He looked pretty bad against Ray Cooper III and although I thought he won the fight pretty clearly, having a close decision against Cooper who has been washed for years in the big 2024 is a horrible look. Burkhamov is a tall striker who mostly fights behind a jab. He is very light on his feet and was able to catch Ray Cooper with knees in the clinch, as Cooper is a much short opponent. He was getting backed up by Cooper and you could tell that he didn't like it at all. He can wrestle but mostly chooses not to, but he has been shooting take downs on occasion in his last few fights and I would expect him to test Jean's wrestling here. Jean is a great PFL prospect but I still think he is still flawed. He is a super aggressive striker who comes out throwing high volume. He has a very controlled chaos style. He starts hot and looks to land early and often. He fights like an undefeated prospect who KO's everyone if that makes any sense. In his last fight he went the distance against Chris Brown in what was pretty much a mirror match up. I like Jean's aggressiveness but it is going to hurt him some day. He gets caught a lot and even against ‘lower level' strikers he gets caught. Yes, he smoked Ali Omar in minutes but Omar was able to land a couple good shots on him as his defense was lacking. Chris Brown went to war with him, but I think Brown is a pretty tricky guy who has turned away a lot of prospects. Jean's wrestling hasn't been tested much but I don't consider Burkhamov to be a great wrestler. I'm picking Jean but I think -250 is a bit wide. There is a chance he makes me look like a fool and just knocks out Burkhamov early though.
Pick: Thad Jean by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
GABRIEL BRAGA (15-2) vs. YVES LANDU (21-9) – Featherweight
Yves Landu is on a pretty impressive win streak but I think that stops here. Gabriel Braga is a muay thai striker, and that's pretty much everything he does. He throws a lot of knees and elbows, and has pretty good kicks as well. Initially I was very skeptical about his take down defense but he has proven over the last year or so that his wrestling is solid and he is hard to take down. Landu is a small guy for this weight class but like most smaller fighters he makes up for this with his speed. His striking defense is quite good as he makes his opponents miss with solid movement. He is well rounded but honestly I think Braga has him covered on the feet, and Landu won't be able to get take downs on Braga.
Pick: Gabriel Braga by decision. High confidence.
GIANNIS BACHAR (9-2) vs. MASAYUKI KIKUIRI (10-2) – Welterweight
Bachar was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 but took a 20 second KO loss to Robert Valentin in the first round. Before that though, he was on a pretty good run at Cage Warriors. His last few wins have come by KO but one that sticks out to me is his win over Carlo Pedrsoli. He won that fight by KO in round 3 but for the first 2 rounds Carlo was able to get take downs on him easily. Bachar did well to defend a lot of submission attempts and eventually Pedersoli gassed out and Bachar was able to get a finish. He should have a size advantage in this fight as he is stocky for 170 lbs, despite being 6'1″. Kikuiri is a technical striker and a former Bellator fighter. He pressures well and is very fast. I think his striking defense does leave a bit to be desired as he was getting caught on occasion by Herman Terrado who is just a can crusher PFL used to boost their prospects. In that fight Masayuki did wrestle though and that's why I am leaning on picking him. Bachar is very likley going to have opportunities to land big but if Masayuki has done his tape study he should use that wrestling here. If he doesn't wrestle though, Bachar could knock him out.
Pick: Masayuki Kikuiri by decision. Very low confidence.
NATHAN KELLY (11-3) vs. TAE KYUN KIM (10-1) – Featherweight
I picked Kelly as an underdog in his last fight and he lost, and I'm going to do it again. Surely he doesn't make me look like an idiot this time. Tae Kyun Kim is very good though and I need to give him that credit. He spent a lot of time fighting for BRAVE and beating undefeated Russians which I am sure the promotion was thrilled about. He has great wrestling and it was his take down defense and cardio that ultimately helped him win those fights. However he was still getting taken down in moments and I think his striking isn't amazing. He leaves his chin up in the air a lot. Kelly isn't the best striker but he is big for the weight class and aggressive. His grappling is slick and he has looked good against lower level guys. I'm picking Kelly as I think he can land on the feet here but Kim does have solid wrestling. I am quite interested in this fight as although I am picking Kelly, Kim is probably the toughest match up stylistically for Khaybulaev.
Pick: Nathan Kelly by KO/TKO. Very low confidence.
JOSEPH LUCIANO (10-2) vs. SAREK SHIELDS (6-2) – Welterweight
Luciano is very submission or bust but I think in this grappler vs. grappler match up he is the better grappler. I believe Shields is taking this fight on short notice as well.
Pick: Joseph Luciano by submission. Medium confidence.
FREDERIK DUPRAS (8-1) vs. NATHAN GHAREEB (10-3) – Featherweight
Tricky match up as this is grappler vs. wrestler. I was unfamiliar with Dupras until now but he has solid grappling and will throw up many defensive submissions. Ghareeb is a wrestler but I worry about his cardio and striking defense. A loss to Lerryan Douglas doesn't look bad at all as Lerryan is the LFA champion now, but I didn't think he looked great in that match up in general. My only worry is that Dupras does like to jump guillotine so he will give up position a lot, and probably annoy me a lot in the process.
Pick: Frederik Dupras by submission. Low confidence.
