I haven't been breaking down ONE Championship recently as they have taken a major step back from MMA, mostly putting on shows with Muay Thai and kickboxing fights with only 2-4 MMA bouts. This card is an exception, with 10 MMA bouts on the card. The card also features many of ONE's biggest and best fighters. The card takes place on Thursday at 09:00 AM ET and according to the official tapology page, it will be broadcast on YouTube.
JOSHUA PACIO (22-4) vs. JARRED BROOKS (21-4) 3 – Flyweight
Jarred Brooks recent run of fights is some what confusing. He lost his title at 125 lbs to Pacio last year due to DQ, but soon after that fought for the interim title and won it. He recently moved up to 135 lbs but lost a split decision to Reese McLaren, so he is fighting for this title while coming off of a loss. This fight is also a trilogy, with Jarred Brooks winning the first bout. The last fight ended very quickly as Jarred Brooks was disqualified for illegal spiking Pacio on his head. This was somewhat controversial as in ONE grounded knees are allowed, but hitting a suplex isn't. Pacio did land on his head and it did look pretty dangerous in the replay though. In the first fight, Jarred Brooks was able to control the start of the fight with his wrestling, and then had some success with the striking, until shooting for more take downs in the final rounds. Pacio is a very talented striker which we have seen showcased in the first Brooks fight, as well as his win over Mansur Malachaev. Against Malachaev he didn't show fantastic take down defense, but he did win that fight using his tricky grappling to threaten with submissions and find some reversals. I think Brooks has better control than Malachaev does, plus Malachaev was doing little to nothing with the control. I think Brooks can take the belt back and settle the trilogy.
Pick: Jarred Brooks by decision. Medium confidence
ROBERTO SOLDIC (20-4) vs. SAYGID GUSAYN ARSLANALIEV (9-2) – Middleweight
Soldic has finally decided to return after what can only be described as an embarrassing performance against Zebastian Kadestam a couple of years. ago. Soldic is a good striker but in that fight he gave Kadestam no respect by constantly looking for a KO with a hook, which Kadestam inevitably read and got a KO win of his own. Arslanaliev is a wrestler himself so this will come down to how good Soldic' take down defense is. On the feet, Soldic should have a major advantage as Arslanaliev's striking looks very off balance and his chin is up in the air. Arslanaliev has also been very inactive, fighting only once since 2019. Surely Soldic doesn't mess this one up.
Pick: Roberto Soldic by KO/TKO. Medium-high confidence.
SHAMIL ERDOGAN (10-0) vs. AUNG LA N SANG (30-14) 2 – Light Heavyweight
This is a rematch from a fight that happened less than 6 months ago.What shocks me even more is that the first fight wasn't even remotely close. Erdogan got a take down easily in the first round and dominated in control. He then did the same in the second round and got the finish. There wasn't really any moment where N Sang wasn't getting dominated. And now it is a rematch. Aung La N Sang is a pretty decent striker but his best days are behind him now. He is nearly 40 years old but was on a 3 fight win streak prior to his first fight with Erdogan. N Sang's wrestling and grappling defense has always been his biggest weakness and now he is fighting the same guy who dominated him in that area 6 months ago.
Pick: Shamil Erdogan by KO/TKO. High confidence.
SHAMIL GASANOV (14-1) vs. MARTIN NGUYEN (15-7) – Lightweight
Martin Nguyen is another former champion being dealt a tough stylistic match up against a wrestler. Gasanov has been a dominant wrestler for ONE for a while, with his one loss coming to Gary Tonon by leg lock. Not much shame in that loss though as Tonon is one of the greatest American grapplers to ever cross over to MMA. Nguyen is a talented fighter but he is small for the weight class, and is coming off a couple bad losses recently. Gasanov has put the loss to Tonon behind him and is now on an impressive win streak. Stylistically Gasonov should get the take downs without too much trouble, and be the better grappler. The thing he needs to watch out for are Nguyen's knees when he attempts a take down and looks for the clinch.
Pick: Shamil Gasanov by submission or decision. High confidence.
BIBIANO FERNANDES (24-6) vs. KEVIN BELLINGON (20-5) 5 – Featherweight
To really get the main card going they have a couple of uncs going at it in a pentalogy. Fernandes is a couple months away from being 45 years old and hasn't fought for 2 years. Bellingon is 37 years old, hasn't fought for 2 years, and is on a 5 fight losing streak with all of those losses coming by finish. Both guys have had very successful ONE careers though, with Fernandes winning the bantamweight title in 2013 and going on to defend the belt 7 times in his first title run, including his first win over Belingon. He lost the belt during his second title run to Bellingon by split decision, but was able to defeat Bellingon two times back to back by DQ and submission. Both guys since then didn't go on to have much success as age and time in the cage inevitably caught up to them. Fernandes most recent fight against Stephen Loman showed this, as he was unexpectedly out grappled throughout the majority of that fight. Belingon's fall off has been even worse though, getting finished 5 times in a row with a couple of those losses being big knock outs. Bellingon is clearly too small for the division and is wrestling wasn't good enough to take down, and hold down the up and coming fighters he was booked against. Fernandes is much older, but he is the better grappler of the two and will have a decent size advantage.
Pick: Bibiano Fernandes by submission or decision. Low confidence.
PRELIM QUICK PICKS:
Mauro Cerilli vs. Kirill Griskenko. Grishenko by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
Kade Ruotolo vs. Nicolas Vigna. Ruotolo by submission. High confidence.
Abdullo Khodzaev vs. Willian Poles. Khadzaev by decision or KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
Ayaka Miura vs. Ritu Phogat. Miura by submission. Low confidence.
Walter Cogliandro vs. Hussein Salem. Cogliandro by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
