This is a really good fight and could have upset written all over it. Dan Hooker is an absolute dog. He has no quit in him at alll and has been to war on more than one occassion. In the past I've been a simp for Gamrot. The wrestling pace and ability to control where the fight goes has done well for him in the past, but watching him get dropped is nerve wracking and Dan Hooker might finally be the guy who can actually finish him. Gamrot isn't dangerous at all so Dan doesn't need to worry about anything other than scrambling back to his feet and letting his hands fly. My only real concern here is Dan's layoff and what that means for his cardio. He will need every ounce of energy to continue working up because i do expect him to be taken down. I'm going to pick Gamrot here, but will bet the +3.5 on Hooker. He may win the first round and then be wet blanketed the next 2, so the 3.5 covers me there.
Mateusz Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot is a nasty wrestler with decent striking and a diverse set of attacks. He doesn't have incredible power on his feet, but he's busy and and pushes a pace. Gamrot can out wrestle pretty much everyone in the division with his relentless pace and non stop takedown attempts. Unfortunately he is very chinny, even though his striking technique is there, his chin is not. He has been dropped in 5 of his 9 UFC fights including his last one against RDA where needed 11 takedowns to get it done.
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker is a very good striker with an enormous amount of heart, we saw it in his last fight and many others as well like against Poirier and Felder. He is a long rangy kickboxer who uses his kicks well to manage distance. He's sharp and technical but can at times get sucked into fire fights. His takedown defense is solid at 80% but I don't think he will need it in this matchup. He is coming off the close win over Jalin Turner back at UFC 290 and a long layoff because of a broken arm.
