This fight was supposed to be the co-main event of UFC Tampa but was moved to be its own main event. i don't know if there was an injury or anything specific that prompted the move, but I do know it went from 3 rounds to 5. This is also a rematch from 2019 where Amanda dominated Mackenzie. She had takedowns, controlled the striking and was never in any danger at all.

Any time I breakdown a rematch i need to look at the first fight and decide if anything has changed since then. If the first fight was an incredibly long time ago and the fighters have evolved in a meaningful way since then, I ignore the first fight and break it down fresh. But if the fighters are relatively the same people, then i put stock into how it went down originally. This is one of those fights. Sure, both women have fine tuned their skills, but they are essentially the same. I think Amanda Ribas does here what she did back then. Defend shitty takedowns, get good takedowns, avoid submissions and dominate the striking. The only unfortunate thing here is that when this was booked for Tampa, Ribas was a dog, she is now squarely the favorite.

Mackenzie Dern

Mackezie Dern is an amazing grappler who has had mixed results in MMA. While her grappling remains elite, she has not progressed as well in the wrestling or the striking. She has a negative striking differential and a horrific 16% takedown accuracy. But she is insanely tough and has no quit in her at all. She is coming off the incredible win over Loopy Godinez where she controlled the striking and by some random act of god, she had 2 takedowns.

Amanda Ribas

Outside of being the love of Jacob's life, Amanda Ribas is a well rounded fighter who is getting her second main event. This fight is at 115lbs which is the weight class best suited for her. She started her career as a grappler but she has added striking and is comfortable everywhere now. Her striking stats are solid with an almost 5-3 striking differential and 61% striking defense. To round her out, her takedown defense is a very solid 85%. She has plenty of cardio and is always willing to fight. She is coming off the 125lb loss to Rose Namajunas where she had 4 takedowns