LFA 207: Lewis vs. Miranda
This is another card that features a lot of fighters we could expect on the Contender Series this year. The card will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass at 09:00 PM ET on Friday.
RICHIE LEWIS (6-0) vs. RICHIE MIRANDA (10-1) – Lightweight
I watched tape on this before I looked at the odds, and honestly I am a bit surprised but not shocked. Right now Lewis is -1200 on BetOnline. This is because he is a very good, dominant wrestler who just went 5 rounds with Kegan Gennrich. I would say that Gennrich is a better version or Miranda. Miranda is more of a BJJ guy. His grappling is solid and he can find the back of his opponents but his striking isn't very dangerous and he can get taken down. I think Lewis is the much better wrestler here and it should look similar to his win over Gennrich, which he won with his take downs. My only concern with Lewis is that he doesn't get many finishes which is what the UFC looks for in prospects now.
Pick: Richie Lewis by decision. High confidence.
MICTH MCKEE (8-0) vs. GREG FISHCER (12-3) – Lightweight
McKee is -4000 which is insane, his opponent is +1600. Some of the widest odds, if not the widest odds I have ever seen in MMA. McKee is similar to Lewis. He is a wrestler but that's it. He doesn't strike much and he doesn't do much when he gets the take down. Because of this he doesn't have great submission or finishing ability. His opponent is a pretty good grappler but I have seen him taken down a lot. His striking is okay bt he mostly throws jabs and leg kicks. He was getting boxed up a bit in the second round in his most recent fight against Fuentes, so maybe McKee has a chance to get a finish. Also worth noting that Fischer hasn't fought for over two years. This is an obvious attempt at giving McKee a guy with a good record on his resume, but the fight is unplayable at -4000.
Pick: Mitch McKee by decision. High confidence.
CHEYANNE BOWERS (5-2) vs. ELIZABTH RODRIGUEZ (3-3) – Women's Flyweight
I think Bowers is pretty good and it's shame she didn't beat Shannon Clark. That fight was so horribly boring I don't think Clark will ever get another shot at the UFC. Bowers is big for the weight class and a solid grappler. I have seen Rodriguez out grappled before and this is a step down for Bowers.
Pick: Cheyanne Bowers by submission. High confidence.
BRYCE LOGAN (13-8) vs. LANDRY WARD (8-3) – Lightweight
Neither of these guys are looking at UFC shots anytime soon, but if Ward can get another win streak going I think we could see him on the Contender Series next year. Ward is a pretty big lightweight, standing at 6'0″. He is a long range striker who fights well behind a jab and kicks. His striking defense isn't the best but he has a good chin and has shown that he can eat some big shots, especially against Alfred Walker. He shoots for a lot of take downs but his control isn't great as his opponents typically can get back up. If he fights a guy with decent get up game or take down defense he can gas himself out looking for take downs. He is now on a two fight losing streak where his cardio and striking defense let him down. In those fights he couldn't get his wrestling going early, and in the last couple of rounds his opponents were able to capitalize on him slowing down and he ended up getting cut open and hurt. Bryce Logan is a former Bellator fighter but he didn't find much success there. Logan is very stationary on the feet with nearly no striking defense. He was recently a victim to a Mason Jones beat down where he got his legs kicked out and then just become a punching bag. He is nearly strictly a boxer and recently fought twice as a boxer. He does his pretty hard and is a big guy for the weight class but there isn't much more to describe his style than just saying “he is a boxer”. Ward is the more well rounded fighter here, and despite losing to strikers in his last two fights this is a decent enough match up for him to get back in the win column. Ward has more tools on the feet and if he kicks the legs of Logan he should be able start working his wrestling as well. Should be a fun fight.
Pick: Landry Ward by decision or KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
NIKITA KULSHIN (6-0) vs. RUDSON CALIOCANE (9-3) – Lightweight
Nikita Kulshin is a very good fighter, it's odd that he doesn't have many finishes. On the feet he's a great boxer with a strong jab and counter strikers. He can use the boxing to win minutes on the feet, or close the distance and look for take downs. His wrestling is pretty solid but he is never very urgent. He doesn't throw a lot of ground and pound, and even in dominant positions in the clinch he is happy to stall. This does result in his fights being fun on the feet, but boring on the ground. His opponent is a former bantamweight who has been inactive and recently fought at featherweight. Kulshin isn't a big lightweight but is going to have a massive size advantage. I was able to watch some of Caliocane's fights and he is fast, but he won't have the size to even compete with Kulshin's wrestling. I think LFA is setting him up to get a finish and a Contender Series opportunity.
Pick: Nikita Kulshin by KO/TKO. High confidence
CHRISTIAN NATIVIDAD (6-0) vs. MICAH HAAS (6-0) – Flyweight
This was an awesome fight but apparently Haas is injured and the fight has been cancelled. I am really high on Natividad so I was going to pick him, but it's a shame it was cancelled.
ANSAR KHAMZAEV (2-0) vs. ABBAS ABASOV (4-0) – Featherweight
Not every day you get someone from Russia fighting some from Turkmenistan in an american LFA event. Both guys do train in Florida though. Khamzaev only has 2 professional fights but he has dominated in them. Abasov has a lot more experience, with a 6-2 amateur record alongside his 4 pro fights. Khamzaev trains out of Kill Cliff FC and he is only 19 years old. He is a wrestler first and is massive for this weight class. Once he gets the take down he has very strong top control. On the feet we haven't seen much but he does throw a lot of kicks. I worry a little bit about his cardio, it could be the way he fights but it looked like he was taking some deep breaths at the end of the first round. Abbas Abasov trains at American Top Team. He has fought considerably better competition than Khamzaev, as his opponents have a combined professional record of 13-2. He does look like he's going to be a bit small compared to Khamzaev as he was smaller than his last opponent Jeremy Henry. He will definitely be more comfortable on the feet than Khamzaev. He is pretty fast and throws a lot of leg kicks. He did get hit a few times by Henry but he eventually got the take downs and from there he looked dominant. This is likely to be a wrestling match up and with so little on Khamzaev it's hard to tell how good he is. From what I have seen, Abasov looks more well rounded so I'm going to go with him. The winner of this fight will have a bright future.
Pick: Abbas Abasov by decision or submission. Low confidence.
DZHAMAL MAVLIUDOV (4-0) vs. JORDON TAGUE (2-0) – Lightweight
Mavliudov is a big guy for this weight class. He is a pretty funny striker to watch as he throws so many spinning kicks. His wrestling is pretty good but I haven't seen him shoot much, he just mostly defends and reverses. He has quite a few wins by guillotine choke. Jordan is also a wrestler but at this point Mavliudov's whole career has been him fighting wrestlers. Mavliudov is going to have a big size advantage so I expect him to use it here.
Pick: Dzhamal Mavliudov by submission. Medium confidence.
CARA GREENWELL (1-1) vs. LESLIE HERNANDEZ (4-2) – Women's Strawweight
Hernandez was on the Contender Series last year and lost to Julieta Martinez. She is pretty well rounded and should win this step down in competition.
JORDAN OLIVER (2-0) vs. CALOB RAMIRIEZ (2-4) – Featherweight
Not sure why Oliver has been so inactive, he is nearly 35 years old now but only has two pro fights. Maybe his PFL/Bellator contract screwed him. This is a step down in competition he should get a first round finish.
