The Contender Series for 2025 is rumoured to be starting in August, and fighters and match up have already been announced. Fighters are looking to get a big win around this time to get a spot on the show and this card features many of those. On this card, I would expect at least two winners to fight on Contender Series this year. The show will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass at 09:00 PM ET on Saturday.
KEGAN GENNRICH (9-3) vs. JEAN-PAUL LEBOSNOYANI (7-2) – Welterweight
I find it odd to see Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani as the underdog as I think he is the more well rounded fighter. This is a match up at welterweight between two former lightweights. Gennrich fought at this weight class in his last fight, and Lebosnoyani has been at 170 lbs for two fights. These guys are both grapplers. Of the two I think Gennrich will be the most willing to get the fight down to the ground. Lebosnoyani isn't a super dangerous striker but he does throw high volume and does well to avoid big shots. He did get lured into a war against Victor Kuiks which wasn't a good idea as Kuiks is a massive boxer, but he survived an early onslaught to outvolume Kuiks to a win which mostly took place on the feet. He is a grappler first but it was good to see him hold his own and then some on the feet against a primary striker. Gennrich stands at 6'2″ so he was quite big for lightweight. His striking is passable but he did rely on tall mans defense which won't work against better strikers in this division. His take downs are pretty solid and I would say his wrestling is better than Lebosnoyani's, but Lebosnoyani should be able to handle his own on the ground and find success in the striking. They both have fought JaCobi Jones who is very fraudulent and Gennrich beat him, but Lebosnoyani lost. In that fight Lebosnoyani was caught on the feet but his striking has greatly improved since then. I think he should be a good underdog here and will ultimately win a decision by landing more volume on the feet and avoiding the grappling of Gennrich.
Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by decision. Low confidence.
ALVIN HINES (6-0) vs. BILLY RAY VALDEZ (4-1) – Heavyweight
Billy Ray Valdez is a very low level striker who will look to scrap. His last fight was so low level I was laughing aloud while watching it live. Hines isn't super impressive either but at heavyweight you don't need to look special to make it far. Hines is a pretty technical striker but I don't like how easy it is to see his strikes coming. He drops his hands every time he goes to throw a kick, and in general is very slow. He does wrestle which I think will be the way he wins this. Valdez has no cardio whatsoever and if Hines can get him down he's going to empty his gas tank trying to get back up. Hines should win this and book a ticket to the Contender Series. Hard to know how good he really is though and he hasn't fought anyone good and in my opinion hasn't looked great doing it.
Pick: Alvin Hines by submission or KO/TKO. Medium confidence.
ALIK LORENZ (6-1) vs. STARLING SIMMONS (5-2) – Light Heavyweight
Alik lorenz is going to be a guy to fade in the future. He was going life and death with Ryan Parker (6-6) on the feet and in the wrestling. So far he has been given a lot of super easy match ups and he's going to do the Daniel Barez method of can crushing his way to the UFC. Starling Simmons is a kickboxer with a decent record but this is obviously another lay up for Lorenz. Simmons is very small for this weight class and looked terrible in his last fight where he was knocked out stiff by a short dude with a losing record. There really isn't much to break down since this is such an obvious lay up, but Lorenz most obvious path to victory is through the wrestling and grappling.
Pick: Alik Lorez by submission or KO/TKO. High confidence.
JOEY HART (6-3) vs. OMOYELE GONZALEZ (5-2) – Welterweight
Joey Hart is coming off a pretty bad KO loss not that long ago. I picked Hart to beat Mixan but man that was a bad pick. Hart was doing his thing landing dynamic shots like the welterweight version of Alex Caceres he is, but I didn't realize his striking defense was that bad. Hart was getting popped by jabs regularly and Mixan, who is a boxer, was even able to land head kicks on him. Hart eventually dived head first into a left hand of Mixan to put himself on the receiving end of a highlight reel. Hart fought on the Contender Series in 2023 and I have to guess he's trying to get back on the show for next year given the quick turn around from a KO loss. Lucky for him he shouldn't need to worry about getting knocked out in this match up. Gonzalez is a wrestler and on the feet he is no threat at all. He will also be significantly smaller than Hart. Hart's take down defense has always been a concern in his career but as long as the fight is on the feet he will be scoring points, so he should be able to win this fight. I don't see Gonzalez being able to finish him, but Hart being – 500 is far too wide.
Pick: Joey Hart by decision. Medium confidence.
STEVEN ASPLUND (4-1) vs. RAIDEN KOVACZ (3-2) – Heavyweight
This should be a highlight. Asplund is a talented striker for heavyweight but let's say he is built a lot more like Tai Tuivasa than Jailton Almeida. He is pretty fun to watch as he is surprisingly athletic. He throws down with punches and if the fight gets in close he likes to let knees go in the clinch. Raiden Kovacz was on the receiving end of a 10 second KO in the PFL but has bounced back since then. His striking defense is some of the worst I have seen. I genuinely have never seen someone move their head less than he does. He crashes forwards with his chin way up in the air. He is begging to get KOed. He has been using some wrestling recently which could make things interesting but I'd be shocked if Asplund doesn't put him to sleep early.
Pick: Steven Asplund by KO/TKO. Medium-high confidence.
SANTOS VERDINEZ (6-2) vs. TIMOTHY BENDER (4-2) – Feathwerweight
This is a very confusing career choice for Verdinez. Verdinez was just knocked out 6 weeks ago in a fight where he was dropped multiple times and finished off with a head kick. Not only did he take a lot of damage not very long ago, he was also a small bantamweight. Verdinez is a grappler so being small is a big disadvantage and now he has made it even worse fighting at 145 lbs. Timothy Bender is a boxer with a pretty big grappling weakness but he also has a lot of power. I watched a few Bender fights and all of his wins are over terrible competition. He just lost to Nick Aguirre where Nick was able to take him down and submit him easily. I do think that Bender's grappling is so weak Verdinez should be able to make something happen, but I would not be surprised at all if he gets knocked out again. Just a baffling career choice that makes no sense at all.
Pick: Santos Verdinez by submission. Very low confidence.
