Apologies for not getting this out sooner, but I have been busy studying and the announcement of Road to UFC caught me off guard yesterday. I will do some early analysis in article form on that RTU season in a couple weeks when I am on term break, so keep an eye out for that. This card takes place in Brazil. Usually LFA's Brazil cards are the best cards but their shows in the USA have been awesome this year as well. As per usual at this time of the year, there should be a lot of winners from this card on the Contender Series. The card is broadcast on UFC Fight Pass and starts at 08:00 PM ET on Friday.
VINICIUS PIRES (10-1) vs. LIONEL ABOJER (11-2) – Bantamweight Championship
The winner of this fight will definitely be on Contender Series. Of the two I think Pires is the more skilled. Abojer is coming off a very impressive win in his last fight against Apollo Gomes, but prior to that he had fought very low level competition and I didn't think he looked amazing doing it. He is a pretty big bantamweight but his striking leaves a lot to be desired. Pires is also a very aggressive grappler which will make for a fun fight, and I do think he wins here. Pires has been hurt on the feet in the past but I don't think Abjoer is the fighter to truly expose that weakness. Him being a – 400 favourite is a bit wide but I do think Pires is going to win.
Pick: Vincius Pires by decision or submission. Medium confidence.
MANOEL SOUSA (11-1) vs. LUCAS BARROS (8-2-1) – Lightweight
Manoel Sousa has somehow got out of his Bellator/PFL contract so I think you will see him in the UFC sooner rather than later. He just lost to Archie Colgan who is one of Bellator's most prized prospects, and that is not a bad loss at all as Colgan is a fantastic boxer with some pretty solid wrestling. This is a set up for Sousa. Sousa is a super overaggressive striker who should run over his opponent here. On paper Barros has beaten some good fighters but in reality a lot of those guys weren't as good as their records suggest. Sousa should get a pretty KO here and you will 100% see him on Contender Series.
Pick: Manoel Sousa to win by KO/TKO. High confidence.
DIEGO DIAS (18-5) vs. PEDRO HENRIQUE (16-9) – Middleweight
Dias is 33 years old but middleweight is really struggling for prospects. He is a grappler for this weight class which is somewhat rare and I would say he fights similarly to Marco Tulio. Every one of his losses has come to solid fighters, with one of those being a quick KO loss to Leal. Recently he has been on a can crushing mission but he just got a pretty good win over a 22-3 opponent. That guy was 37 with a padded record himself, but on of his wins was over Tofiq Musayev. Pedro Henrique has fought twice in over 4 years and is 5′ 8″. Dias should sub this guy quickly and if he does I'd be shocked if he didn't sign with the UFC.
Pick: Diego Dias by submission. High confidence.
XIOMARA PIRIZ (13-4) vs. GABRIELA FUJIMOTO (6-0) – Strawweight
Fujimoto is a great prospect to look out for as she is only 22 years old. It seems like right now she isn't UFC ready but if she keeps winning we might see her in the UFC. Her opponent is kind of like the grappling version of Julieta Martinez. Also from Argentina, also too small for the division, and also has most of her wins in the first round. Fujimoto is -650 which is pretty crazy as she also likes to get fights to the ground but we have no idea what Piriz is going to look like after the first round. I think Fujimoto might have an early scare but should be able to take over as the fight goes on.
Pick: Gabriel Fujimoto by KO/TKO or decision. Medium-high confidence.
HERBETH SOUSA (18-2) vs. MEIJY PORTA (7-5) – BANTAMWEIGHT (140 LBS)
Short notice fight here as Sousa originally had a tough fight scheduled against Michel Lima. Sousa is pretty small for this weight class but against this new opponent he should have a rare size advantage which will help him a lot as he is a grappler who likes to get dominant control. Sousa is -1800 lol there's not much more to say.
Pick: Herbeth Sousa by submission. High confidence.
GIOVANNI GARCIA (8-0) vs. EMERSON OLIVEIRA (8-6-1) – BANTAMWEIGHT (138 LBS)
Garcia is a DWCS lock.
Pick: Giovanni Garcia by submission or KO/TKO. High confidence.
JOAO PEDRO MOREIRA (6-1) vs. GUSTAVO RIBEIRO (5-0) – Featherweight
Ribeiro is a super fun aggressive striker. I worry about his cardio but he likes to get quick finishes.
Pick: Gustavo Ribeiro by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
