LFA 199 is the final card before their big LFA 200 card in late January. This card was stacked but unfortunately a couple of the better fights were cancelled so now I will only break down the main card, as the prelims are mostly fighters making their pro debuts. LFA 199 takes place this weekend, Friday 10th January at 10:00 PM ET. Broadcast on UFC Fight Pass.
LFA 199 Main Card:
ARY FARIAS (14-4) vs. ERIK VISCONDE (14-3) – Featherweight
This is a short notice fight, as Farias was originally preparing to fight Sabit Zhusupov. It was announced that the new main event would have Erik Visconde replacing him a few days ago, so to my knowledge Visconde has had 2 weeks to prepare for this fight. Farias is 35 so he is an older prospect but he has found himself close to the UFC a couple times. He has great BJJ but aside from that is pretty one dimensional as his striking and wrestling aren't as good as his grappling. Visconde is also a grappler, but on the feet he likes to box and throws with heavy power. He is coming off a big win against a solid opponent from Kyrgyzstan where he was able to show case his striking and offensive grappling. Farias is clearly going to be less comfortable on the feet and Visconde likes to pressure forward and throw volume. On the feet it doesn't look like Farias is trying to do much more than wait for an opportunity to get a take down. For that reason I am going to pick Erik Visconde to win a decision based on landing more damage.
Pick: Erik Visconde by decision. Low confidence.
RAFAEL DO NASCIMENTO (9-3) vs. BRANDON ALTOMORE (4-1) – Featherweight
do Nascimento is a fighter I was very high on in 2022. I was sure he was going to get signed to the UFC after his 4 fight win streak which includes a first round submission win over Marcus McGhee. But now that he has lost a couple fights it looks like his chances are slim. His striking isn't very technical but he swings wild, which does leave himself open to getting hurt. The way he wins his fights is by crashing forward into the clinch and getting his grappling going from there. Altomore is also a short notice replacement. He is also a grappler but looks to be very small for the division. His fights didn't last very long as most of his opponents weren't very good but he could be a promising prospect some day. This is a massive step up in competition for him though, and a big step down in competition for Nascimento. I would be surprised if Nascimento lost.
Pick: Rafael do Nascimento by submission. Medium-high confidence.
JOSH HOKIT (2-0) vs. JOHN LOPEZ (2-1) – Heavyweight
Josh Hokit is a former NFL player and all american wrestler. He was signed by Bellator and fought twice for them before they were bought by the PFL. His brother also fought for Bellator but didn't go undefeated like Josh has. It's hard to tell how well he will do against higher level competition but he dominated the opponents Bellator gave him with his wrestling. I was able to find a couple of Lopez' fights but there isn't much evidence that suggests he will be a step up in competition. He seems to also be a wrestler but his cardio isn't great and he doesn't look comfortable striking. Josh's striking is pretty unknown but I don't think it will be tested here. I am going to pick Josh Hokit to find another finish to continue his MMA career.
Pick: Josh Hokit by submission or KO. Medium-high confidence.
ENKHTUR BAYARSOGT (7-4) vs. SHOVKHAL CHURCHAEV (5-2) – Lightweight
I strongly recommend to not bet on this fight. I couldn't find footage of any of Churchaev's MMA fights, but I could watch his his cage boxing fights. Bayartsogt looks to be pretty dangerous on the feet but he's a pretty small lightweight and he has no wrestling at all. If Churchaev is a wrestler then he should win but considering he has mostly competed in boxing and Nashe Delo it's safe to assume he doesn't wrestle much either. This fight will be fun but I am just going to have to pick Churchaev as his boxing seems to be alright and he's much more composed than Bayarsogt who fights super wild.
Pick: Shovkhal Churchaev by KO/TKO. Very low confidence.
SAID-MAGOMED ABDULGAZIEV (7-7) vs. THEO HAIG (5-0) – Middleweight
Theo Haig is another prospect that Bellator was developing before they were acquired by the PFL. He is a smothering wrestler with good BJJ. If he wins this fight I would expect to see him on the Contender Series this year. It took me a minute to find it but I was able to watch one of Abdulgaziev's fights. In it he threw no strikes, got knocked down and controlled, then finished. He hasn't fought since 2023 but I just have to assume that he isn't very good. There was meant to be a couple great prospects from Russia on this card but they pulled out. I am guessing Abdulgaziev is one of their training partners and LFA just got him a fight with Haig.
Pick: Theo Haig by submission. High confidence.
LARRY GONZALES (5-3) vs. BILLY RAY VALDEZ (3-1) – Heavyweight
I don't have much to say about this fight other than the fact that it won't be very high level. Both of these guys are punching bags and in most of their fights their opponents back them up and land strikes on them. Both guys just swing wild with no technique. I don't think either guy has good cardio either but from what I have seen Valdez cardio should be better. A hilarious fight as both guys are just going to throw bombs but I think the more likely fighter to land big is Valdez.
Pick: Billy Ray Valdez by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
NOTABLE PRELIM FIGHTERS:
Gabrielle McComb makes her pro debut. She has an impressive grappling background.
Shealor Ladd makes his pro debut. He is Aspen Ladd's brother and has a 10-0 amateur record.
