This is going to be a parlay heavy or prop heavy card because a lot of the confident picks aren't the best value. Jailton is an example. I am very confident that he gets the takedowns and cruises to a win here. But he is -250. So I am not going to layout 2.5 units to win one and will need to either pair him up with someone else that I am confident in, or hunt for a prop that I like. But pick wise, clear pick for Jailton, he will get as many takedowns as he wants and potentially finds a finish. I get that Spivac is a good grappler, but he is a good offensive grappler, throwing things up off your back is a different game, and Spivac isn't on that level.
Jailton Almeida
Jailton Almeida is an absolute savage and hasn't looked human yet in the UFC. He has powerful hands and incredible grappling. All but one of his wins are by stoppage and thats because of his nonstop pressure. He will come in hot, and relentlessly work for takedowns. Once he is on the ground he will chase submissions and hit you in the transitions. He has only ever been to one decision in the UFC and even that was a dominant showcase. He is coming off the destruction of Alexandr Romanov where he only needed 1 takedown and 3 minutes to get it done.
Serghei Spivac
Sergey Spivac is a heavyweight grappler who has great ground and pound with solid takedowns. He has an ok submission game and is a capable striker. He doesn't have ko power but he does have a decent jab and solid volume. His biggest issue is control. The reason he averages around 5 takedowns per fight is because people are standing up on him. He is coming off the first round submission win over Marcin Tybura
