When i first watched the tape and saw the odds, i was pretty surprised to see Ion was the favorite. Then, about 5 fights deep into tape study, i finally saw a single grappling exchange and Ivan didn't look very good. Turned his back, panicked a bit and was taken down. Ion does not have a chin and probably gets smoked early, but he does have decent takedowns and he may only need 1 here. This fight will 100% end by finish and its either Ion on the ground or Ivan on the feet. I want to pick and bet on Ivan but there are just so many unknowns here.

Ion Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba is a grappler who happens to have very good power in his hands and is happy to fight in a phone booth despite his questionable chin. He is a feast or famine fighter so he will chase a stoppage and will potentially get stopped doing it. He is good on the ground and racks up tons of takedowns but they can be sloppy body locks that are more muscle than technique. He is coming off his 9th UFC loss but did manage to make it to a decision.

Ivan Erslan

Ivan Erslan is a powerful striker who can end your night with one punch. He can alternate between technical, low volume distance striker and high paced bully. He has decent movement and is relatively light on his feet. He likes to plot forward and then explode with counters. If he has you in trouble he is absolutely unrelenting. You won't see much in the way of offensive grappling and his defensive grappling also has some holes.