It’s been 2 weeks since UFC 294 took place in Abu Dhabi. Now the UFC heads to São Paulo Brazil for UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis. While this card may not be quite as stacked in terms of name recognition like 294 was, there is an abundance of talent scattered throughout this event.
We are going to take a look at a few of these fights from a FanDuel perspective and identify some key bouts to keep an eye on leading up to the contest. As always our full projections for both fantasy points and ownership will be available on the website in addition to our core plays, fades, and our proprietary leverage metric.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-3000 FDNGTD)
Jailton Almeida ($23) vs. Derrick Lewis ($14)
Jailton Almeida enters the cage as the clear favorite, his dominant grappling prowess setting the stage for Derrick Lewis' knockout power. This dynamic paints a vivid picture of striker vs. grappler, with Almeida's superior ground game significantly influencing the odds. Lewis is a high-risk pick for DFS players. Despite his potential for a first-round finish, his all-or-nothing style is unsuitable for the stability required in cash games. Although Almeida's ability to control the fight on the ground is obvious, he must be balanced against Lewis's ability to change the tide with a single punch.
On the ground, Lewis' game plan is simple. He needs to land the knockout shot. His record of the most KOs in heavyweight history demonstrates his one-punch destructive ability. However, in the face of Almeida's relentless takedown assault, Lewis's historical struggles with ground defense are highlighted. Almeida is expected to seek a takedown quickly, avoiding the risk of Lewis's striking and aiming to finish the fight with his submission expertise.
Almeida comes in with a reputation for ending fights quickly and avoiding the need for a decision. In the UFC, his all-action style has yet to be dampened, with his striking and grappling threat ending fights before the final bell. Lewis' power is always a crowd pleaser, but he has a habit of staging dramatic comebacks or landing a fight-ending blow out of nowhere. In this matchup, Almeida's well-rounded arsenal appears to outperform Lewis's one-of-a-kind path to victory. Despite the unpredictability of heavyweight fights, Almeida's multifaceted skill set makes him the preferred choice for those looking for a high-risk, high-reward strategy, with a cautious eye on Lewis's ever-present knockout threat.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-300 FDNGTD)
Gabriel Bonfim ($22) vs. Nicolas Dalby ($8)
Gabriel Bonfim enters this fight as the overwhelming favorite, with a fearsome reputation for finishing fights early, whether standing or on the ground. His track record speaks for itself, seamlessly blending high-caliber boxing with skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Bonfim's recent quick submission over Trevin Giles demonstrates his dominance on the mat, casting a long shadow over Nicolas Dalby's chances.
Dalby, on the other hand, is not a walk in the park. His unblemished record against being stopped by strikes, as well as a recent trio of victories, demonstrate his tenacity. Despite this, his fantasy scoring has been mediocre, with only one UFC victory reaching the coveted 100-point mark. He's an adaptable karate stylist, but he's vulnerable to being hit and has a low takedown accuracy rate. Despite outmaneuvering Muslim Salikhov in his last matchup, Dalby's overall game has yet to intimidate the division's top fighters.
The odds are heavily stacked in Bonfim's favor. His well-rounded game and methodical aggression suggest he'll control the fight whether it stays standing or falls to the canvas. Although Dalby's toughness may force a decision, Bonfim is poised to dictate the pace. Bonfim is the top pick for DFS players, albeit with the caution of his high price and the risk of a low-scoring decision. Dalby is at best a marginal pick, potentially useful only in a diversified multi-entry strategy. The narrative suggests that Bonfim is dictating this fight, positioning him as the fighter to watch (and pick) in this match.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-200 FDNGTD)
Rodolfo Vieira ($15) vs. Armen Petrosyan ($15)
Rodolfo Vieira is the epitome of a BJJ specialist, with a skill set honed by international titles. As long as his stamina holds up, his athletic explosiveness and recent striking improvements pose a threat to any opponent. Vieira is known for seeking the mat early, aiming for a submission, as evidenced by his comeback victory over Cody Brundage. Armen Petrosyan, a professional kickboxer turned MMA fighter, stands out here as well. His striking is his foundation, supported by a toughness that's been tested in brawls and tactical fights alike. Despite his poor takedown defense, Petrosyan's scrambling ability has frequently saved him from dangerous ground situations, as he demonstrated against Christian Leroy Duncan.
This fight is expected to end before the final bell, making DFS players salivate. Vieira will undoubtedly use his grappling advantage to attempt a quick takedown and submission. Petrosyan's goal is to stop Vieira's takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he shines.
While Vieira has the advantage on the ground, Petrosyan's stand-up game keeps him in the running, especially if he can extend the fight and put Vieira's gas tank to the test. The high volatility of this matchup should be considered by DFS players, with the possibility of a Vieira submission or a Petrosyan knockout making a strong case for including both fighters in lineups. The outcome of the fight is crucial, with either fighter capable of delivering a performance that exceeds their price tag.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
