Last week we picked out three of the top five scoring fights, and happened to find ourselves on the right side of all of them…the favorite side unfortunately. That means that all three did not end up optimal due to salary constraints. So the quest continues.

This week we are heading to UFC Jacksonville to see a main event between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria. This fight is actually one of the most favored on the slate to end inside the distance, but we will not be covering it. The undercard has numerous fights that I am personally looking forward to, and that is a bit of a blessing because we have had some questionable slates on paper recently.

Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Jacksonville. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP. 

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-750 FDNGTD)

JUSTIN TAFA ($17) vs. AUSTEN LANE ($14)

These are the big boys on the slate. To be completely honest, who wins is a coin flip in my opinion, but an early finish is all but guaranteed. Whichever one of these guys manages to get that outcome to go in their favor will almost surely end up optimal as well due to the lower salaries. As always with heavyweights, especially heavyweights that are going to bang not hang, the analysis doesn’t mean much.

Justin Tafa is a less than stellar heavyweight in the UFC, but he sure does have a habit of making his fights exciting. The power Tafa is capable of generating is off the charts, and to be fair to him, he has a fairly decent chin all things considered as well. The deficiency in Tafa’s game tends to be his grappling and wrestling, but I can’t imagine this being a big concern (slight, but not big) in this one. As a counter striker he is very likely to land something when his opponent rushes in, and if he does it is probably lights out.

Austen Lane is a former NFL defensive end, and when that didn’t work out he moved on to fighting mixed martial arts. Lane is an unorthodox striker that leaps in and out with his attacks. He can grapple and should easily be the more athletic fighter in the cage, but between the questions around fighting style and having seen the way Lane has been knocked out in the past there are some concerns.

I think Tafa is the safer side of this without question. The line is currently at -183 on BETOnline and there is only a $3 difference between them on FanDuel. That being said, I certainly wouldn’t remove Lane from my fighter pool if I was planning on playing multiple lineups, there is plenty of upside there as well.

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-550 FDNGTD)

CODY BRUNDAGE ($19) vs. SENDRIQUES DUMAS ($11)

This fight between Cody Brundage and Sendriques Dumas is one of the fights that I am most looking forward to on this slate. Cody is a dynamic guy with power and solid wrestling, but has drawn the short end of the stick in most of his UFC fights. Sendriques Dumas is a former street fighter that is making his second appearance in the UFC after his first appearance fell flat. 

Brundage has fought six times in the UFC counting the Contender Series. He has won two of those fights. Not great. That being said, Brundage is a wrestler and throws bombs as well. So just based on that limited information it would be a clear cut Brundage play. Unfortunately Brundage has shown some of the all-time worst fight IQ in more than one of his fights, has proven to have some chin issues himself, and sometimes falls in love with the brawl rather than focusing on the wrestling. 

Sendriques Dumas is a long aggressive striker with solid grappling skills. In his UFC debut he did struggle to keep the fight standing, and all things considered that was against a much more inferior wrestler than Brundage. For Dumas this will probably come down to whether or not he can stay standing for the first half of round one. If he does there is good chance that he can just out cardio Brundage. He also has the knockout upside himself. 

Everything in my soul wants to just pick Brundage here and keep it moving since Dumas burned me last time and I think this is a worse match up for him…but…I think for me this is going to be platform based. I would pick Brundage on DraftKings for the wrestling upside and I would go heavier on Dumas on FanDuel for the striking upside and salary savings.

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-500 FDNGTD)

TREVOR PEEK ($16) vs. JOSE MARISCAL ($15)

This might just be the most fun fight on the slate. Trevor Peek is nothing but excitement and Mariscal is in that realm as well. Mariscal is very well rounded and experienced despite this being his official UFC debut. The under is very appealing here and the score should match that feeling.

For me, I am firmly on the Trevor Peek side. There is no true logic for that other than the eye test, but Peek is a savage and I expect that level of savagry to come out on top. I wouldn’t remove Mariscal from my pool in multiple entry stuff though.

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.