We had a week off from the action while fighters and fans alike enjoyed their Thanksgiving week. Now we are back to kickoff December with another fight card.
This week the UFC is headed to Austin, Texas for UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan. Once again there have been some matchups alterations made between now and the original scheduling, and we did lose two fights. Nonetheless, this card still has a lot of strong matchups. From a DFS perspective we like to try and find potential high scoring opportunities scattered about the card, so let’s take a deeper look at a few matchups to consider.
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FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-550 FDNGTD)
ZACH REESE ($20) vs. CODY BRUNDAGE ($9)
Zach Reese, a promising talent from Fury FC, will make his UFC debut against Cody Brundage. Reese, known for his explosive style, must go above and beyond his DWCS performance. Brundage has experience in tougher fights, despite recent inconsistencies and a controversial DQ win. His heavy-handed, wrestling-centric approach stands in stark contrast to Reese's powerful striking and technical prowess, setting up an intriguing clash of styles.
This is a classic case of experience versus raw talent. Brundage's UFC experience and aggressive offensive pace contrast with Reese's lack of experience but notable striking ability. Reese, a formidable presence in the middleweight division, makes effective use of his size and BJJ skills. Brundage's fighting style, which is characterized by a kill or be killed mentality, raises questions about his fight IQ. His ability to combine striking and wrestling may be crucial, but Reese's technical striking and ground game will be a formidable challenge.
The Reese/Brundage fight is unpredictable, making it a must-see for MMA fans. Reese's untested abilities at the UFC level add uncertainty, while Brundage's experience and questionable decision-making in the cage add intrigue of their own. Early bets may favor Reese, with predictions indicating that his odds may steepen significantly. While Brundage's experience is valuable, Reese's potential and size advantage place him as the clear favorite.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-550 FDNGTD)
RODOLFO BELLATO ($23) vs. IHOR POTIERIA ($8)
Ihor Potieria enters this match as the underdog, but his best chance of victory is a quick knockout. Potieria is known for his aggressive openings, and his approach is high risk, high reward, making this fight ideal for GPP formats. While his opponent, Rodolfo Bellato, is more well-rounded, he also comes with a high price tag as a UFC newcomer. This adds an interesting layer to the fight because, while Bellato is expected to win, the uncertainty surrounding newcomers makes the outcome less predictable. Potieria's potential for an early upset should not be underestimated, especially in GPP tournaments where his lower cost and knockout ability provide significant value.
The favorite, Bellato, faces the classic challenge of a newcomer facing a less polished but dangerous UFC fighter. His superior striking and grappling skills make him the safer pick, yet the hesitance to invest heavily in a new and expensive fighter on the card is understandable. Despite Bellato's advantages, the fight's dynamics point to a volatile outcome, with both fighters likely to come out of the gates hot. The possibility of an early conclusion to the fight, possibly in the first round, adds to its allure, making it an important fight for DFS players. Potieria's experience and finishing power in the early rounds make him an appealing option for those looking to profit from an underdog victory.
Bellato's ability to use his grappling advantage and avoid being drawn into a striking match with Potieria is critical to the outcome of the fight. Bellato's primary strength is on the ground, despite what he can do in exchanges. Bellato faces the risk of engaging in too much striking, which could play into Potieria's hands given the latter's knockout power. Potieria, while a capable striker, is vulnerable to being outstruck due to defensive flaws. This fight pits a striker against a grappler, with the outcome likely determined by Bellato's strategic choices and Potieria's ability to capitalize on any striking opportunities. While Bellato is the favorite, the matchup's unpredictable nature makes it a compelling and strategic consideration for DFS lineups.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-220 FDNGTD)
BENEIL DARIUSH ($13) vs. ARMAN TSARUKYAN ($22)
Arman Tsarukyan comes into the fight as one of the most dynamic fighters in the lightweight division. His fighting style, which combines wrestling and striking flawlessly, makes him a formidable opponent. Tsarukyan, a member of the new generation of lightweights, combines powerful wrestling with deft striking, displaying fluid footwork and effective setup for strikes and takedowns. His athleticism is further emphasized by his ability to seamlessly incorporate kicks into his fighting style. Despite a recent scare in which he was knocked out in the third round by Joaquim Silva, his overall performance remains impressive.
Beneil Dariush, on the other hand, possesses a well-rounded skill set that has consistently placed him among the division's top contenders. Dariush, a skilled fighter with impressive power and control, has a track record of dominating opponents both on the ground and in striking exchanges. His accomplishments include being a world champion in no-gi BJJ and averaging nearly two takedowns per fight. His versatility has been demonstrated in grappling victories over Tony Ferguson and Diego Ferreira, as well as striking victories over Scott Holtzman and James Vick. Dariush's recent first-round KO loss to Charles Oliveira, however, ends an eight-fight win streak, raising concerns about his current form.
The match between Tsarukyan and Dariush is expected to be intense. Tsarukyan, who is likely to use his wrestling to wear down Dariush, may win due to his superior wrestling and resilience. Dariush's striking ability, combined with his ground game and track record of outlasting wrestlers, suggests he could pose a significant challenge. This strategically balanced fight presents a pick 'em scenario in which each fighter's strengths could neutralize the other's. The outcome may depend on Dariush's ability to use his BJJ skills and striking advantage against Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure. Given their abilities, the winner is expected to perform well in a DFS setting, making this main event an important target for both GPP and cash game strategies.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.