We nailed all three fights to target last week, but unfortunately I was personally on the wrong side of two of them. Hopefully you targeted the fights, but were smart enough to fade the picks I made for my personal lineups. If not, then you donated just like I did most likely.
For UFC 290 we have a weird slate to say the least. There are multiple favorites that are sitting at -1000 or more, and 13 of the 14 total fights are expected to end inside the distance. The only one that isn’t is +100 to end inside the distance as well, so it is really close to every fight being favored towards violence. So instead of just using the betting lines to select the three fights this week, I am going to just pull the three fights that I believe will mean the most to your lineup to be on the correct side of this time around.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 290. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-400 FDNGTD)
JIMMY CRUTE ($15) vs. ALONZO MENIFIELD ($13)
This fight will be one of the most influential fights on the slate because of the close salaries on these two fighters. Finding someone in that middle range is very important on a slate like this because players will need to be very picky near the top, and many will pick the very expensive fighters. That makes it very difficult to fit fights like this onto your lineup.
Jimmy Crute is a wrestler by trade, and he did secure six takedowns in their last fight despite Menifield being pretty solid in the takedown defense department. When it comes to the striking Crute is a bit lacking in my opinion, and is fairly hittable as well to make matters worse. His chin did hold up despite being tagged numerous times by Menifield in their last fight, but I do have some concern if it will hold up again under those same circumstances.
Alonzo Menifield is a pretty powerful striker, and he has above average takedown defense as well to keep this standing in his preferred realm. If Crute can manage to get the takedowns again then things might get sketchy for Menifield, but if he can’t and this stays standing for at least half of it, Crute could be the one in trouble.
Personally I love Jimmy Crute, so I hope he can make it shake…but with Menifield being only $13 on a platform that doesn’t reward control time I believe he is the side to play for fantasy purposes.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-330 FDNGTD)
JALIN TURNER ($17) vs. DAN HOOKER ($13)
On a slate loaded with fights that are sure to be exciting, there is always one that stands out to each person individually. That is Jalin Turner versus Dan Hooker for me. I think that this fight will play an important role in successful lineups this week because I expect the pricing will allow you to produce a solid score without having to spend up.
Jalin Turner is a dynamic striker that just went to split decision with Mateusz Gamrot, who I would argue is levels above Dan Hooker. He isn’t a traditional grappler, but also has plenty of grappling upside because of his proficiency in the scrambles. Turner uses his length better than many are willing to give him credit for, and holds a massive size advantage in this fight.
On the other side of the cage is Dan Hooker, who is a very capable striker, but has struggled near the top of his previous weight class due to his lack of wrestling and grappling. You will notice that along with dropping down a weight class for this one, Hooker has also come in with fresh leg tattoos and a new hair style. To be honest that concerns me more than anything, this seems like a man grasping at straws trying to reinvent himself, and I worry that he has a terrible opponent to complete that narrative here.
Jalin Turner is one the fighters on this slate that I am the most bullish on, and at only $17 he opens up the slate for you to really pick your spots in the higher salary group. Hooker would give a ton of leverage I imagine if you are behind him, but I think he gets stopped inside the distance.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-250 FDNGTD)
NIKO PRICE ($18) vs. ROBBIE LAWLER ($13)
This fight should be really fun for as long as it lasts, and to be perfectly honest, I am shocked that the line to end inside the distance is as reasonable as it is. I believe this fight is virtually guaranteed to end inside the distance in one direction or the other. Both of these guys will meet in the middle and go to war until the other isn’t standing anymore.
I will be on the Lawler side of this one, but it is strictly for pricing reasons. Obviously at this point in Robbie Lawler’s career his chin is pretty questionable, but he should still have some that of nuclear power kicking around to put on Price’s also somewhat questionable chin. Either way this one goes I expect a stoppage pretty early in the fight.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
