I don’t miss completely with this article often, by design of course, but last week was a complete miss. I was on the wrong side of the two fights that ended up being plenty worth targeting, and then the one where I was on the correct side fell short of the optimal lineup. Feels bad man, but onward we press. This time we look to analyze Noche UFC with the rematch of Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.
Noche UFC will be taking place in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Mexican Indepence Day. Beyond the main event mentioned above we will be treated with a slate full of up and coming Mexican fighters. That means one thing, entertainment. Many of the fights are lacking a bit in name value because they are largely unproven prospects, but the slate is not short on exciting fighters so I personally expect the event to be phenomenal.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for Noche UFC. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-900 FDNGTD)
RAUL ROSAS JR. ($23) vs. TERRENCE MITCHELL ($8)
Raul Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter in the UFC and is a massively hyped up prospect coming from Mexico. He did manage to lose a bit of that hype in his last fight where he was outclassed and lost to Christain Rodriguez. Across the cage from him is Terrence Mitchell who suffered a first round loss to Cameron Saaiman in his official UFC debut.
Raul Rosas Jr. is a very skilled wrestler and grappler. His whole fighting style revolves around getting his opponents to the ground and controlling them while he hunts for a submission. His striking is rumored to be solid, but it looked anything but in his last fight where he really needed it. In fairness to him though he didn’t really look to strike until after it was pretty clear that his cardio was depleted, so those strikes were very half hearted.
Terrence Mitchell is also a grappler who suffers from inferior striking, and to be honest his grappling doesn’t appear to be on the same level as Raul Rosas Jr. either. In fact, this fight is pretty clearly a “get back” for Rosas so that he can right the hype train that the UFC wants to run though the Mexican market.
While I don’t completely hate the idea that Mitchell might be able to survive to the point of Rosas Jr gassing out, I think even then it would be too late for him to win a decision and I highly doubt a finish is possible. This is clearly a Rosas Jr play, or a total fade. I cannot fathom a good reason to play Terrence Mitchell.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-650 FDGTD)
EDGAR CHAIREZ ($16) vs. DANIEL LACERDA ($13)
If you remember the fight where the fighter was put to sleep without the ref stopping the fight and then woke up in an arm bar to his elbow dislocating, then you might remember Edgar Chairez as well as the fighter that was administering that armbar. His last fight didn’t look as great with him taking a grappling loss to Tatsuro Taira. He will be fighting everyone’s favorite 5 minute fighter Daniel Lacerda.
Edgar Chairez is another Mexican fighter and one that has had moments in his career of looking very legit. Unfortunately he has also had moments of looking somewhat lackluster as well. The one thing that is hard to question with Chairez is his toughness as he is as game as they come. In this fight I expect Chairez to basically stand toe to toe in a war with Lacerda.
Daniel Lacerda probably has some type of record for knockdowns in fights that resulted in a loss or something. He looks like a world beater for the first three minutes or so of each one of his fights, and then everything drastically changes as his cardio runs for the hills. Lacerda has some grappling skills as well, but forcing him to use them might be counter productive to his cardio as well.
I am pretty firmly on the Chairez side of this fight, just because I have a thing where I won’t rely on fighters that can’t fight for 15 minutes. If Lacerda can catch Chairez early he can definitely win though, and that would produce a crazy score. You really can’t miss here as long as you have the winner.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-650 FDNGTD)
CHARLIE CAMPBELL ($20) vs. ALEX REYES ($11)
Finally we have the, “uhhh…ok” fight of the slate. Alex Reyes, the younger brother of Dominic Reyes, is making his return after about 5 years off due to health issues. Across from him is the heavy favorite Charlie Campbell, who has zero UFC wins and one finish loss against Chris Duncan on DWCS. Such a weird fight to have thrown together on short notice due to Natan Levy pulling out, but here we are.
Five years off due to health reasons should be the biggest red flag ever. Charlie Campbell should be able to take Reyes’ head off here with a fairly sizable striking advantage, but if this fight finds the mat then Reyes would have the grappling advantage and anything can happen there. I am on the Campbell side, but again, no confidence in that at all, so either side should be good as long as it's the winning side.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.