This past week for UFC Mexico, the Chalkboard article was able to identify the best play on the slate with little issue, but unfortunately for me – I was not able to translate that into cash because I also had Moreno, Yair, and Rosas in my lineups. That zero from Rosas Jr. hurt obviously, and then having Yair, the losing side, on a fight that was nearly 100% owned in my contests was the dagger when added to that.
There is nothing certain to crush the excitement of an event with a crowd quite like the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada – but that is where we are headed this week. We have the card that was originally intended for Saudi Arabia, but was rumored to be rejected and sentenced to the Apex instead while the UFC regroups. We have a few well known Russian names on the slate, as well as a few more prospects. All around, it is not as bad of a card as some would lead you to believe, but it certainly isn’t one of the best either.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.
LOCK THEM IN
UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV – $9700 (-1000)
While this slate has some of the wildest pricing I have ever seen, they have made it somewhat easy in my opinion to identify the best plays in the upper salary range. There has been plenty of talk this week about how good Umar Nurmagomedov’s opponent, Bekzat Almakhan, is. Throw all of that out of the window. The betting line here is insanity, Umar has proven himself to be a fantasy demon, and there should not be a more clear play on the slate for cash contests. I am considering moving off of him for tournaments however, just to be able to settle on underdogs that I think stand a chance to actually win their fight this week.
MUHAMMAD MOKAEV – $9100 (-363)
Next up is who I consider to be the best play on the slate, Muhammad Mokaev. Mokaev is fighting pull out specialist Alex Perez, and while the offensive grappling of Perez could present problems, I expect that the defensive grappling will be just the hole that Mokaev needs to put up a massive score in this one, and at a steep discount over the other fighter in the salary range with massive grappling upside. Mokaev will be locked into my cash and tournament lineups without question.
ROLL THE DICE
LUDOVIT KLEIN – $9600 (-800)
While I would consider it a mistake to use Klein over Nurmagomedov in cash games, I do think he has at least a small window to be a solid tournament pivot. Klein is fighting a considerably lesser opponent that is coming in on short notice named AJ Cunningham. I believe this fight has potential to end in a knockout, as well as provide a minimal amount of grappling upside for Klein as well should he choose to engage on that level. Everything in that last sentence is more ceiling than floor however, and the floor for Klein in a win here is a three round decision win that scores around 80 points. The larger the tournament the more willing I would be to include Klein in my fighter pool.
VITOR PETRINO – $9000 (-300)
Vitor Petrino is my absolute favorite tournament pivot from Umar Nurmagomedov. To be completely transparent I think Tyson Pedro is also one of the best dogs on the slate. In the event Petrino wins this fight however, it is almost surely by finish and Petrino has done very well in the DFS scoring department in his previous fights. Moving down so much from Umar also opens up the available salary to grab some of those higher priced dogs in the middle of the slate.
STAY AWAY
JAVID BASHARAT – $9500 (-900)
Javid Basharat is one of those fighters that I almost always want to use in DraftKings because he is such a good grappler, but it never fails that he just keeps the fight standing or prioritizes position in dull grappling exchanges when the fight does find its way into that realm. He just doesn’t score enough. Add in the fact that I believe that he has the most dangerous of the opponents for fighters in this upper 9k range and I will be steering clear myself.
ERYK ANDERS – $9300 (-500)
The only logical stance to play Anders in my opinion is that you believe that his opponent, Jamie Pickett, is so bad that Anders is going to fall into an early finish. I don’t buy it personally. I don’t see a dangerous fighter when I watch Anders and that is concerning to me. I believe that he wins the fight, and may even win the fight by finish, but I seriously doubt his ability to do so with enough activity to justify a $9300 salary.
STEVE ERCEG – $9200 (-384)
Steve Erceg is the one fighter this week that I wanted to roll the dice on despite knowing that I shouldn’t. Thankfully logic won out and here he is in the stay away section. Erceg has some serious grappling ability, but lacks the wrestling needed to impose it. It is my belief that Erceg will be happy to keep this fight at range, where he should have the striking advantage, and slowly point his way to a decision victory. I would put the ceiling at a late finish, but even then I don’t think he scores enough through the rest of the fight to put up a decent score.
FINAL THOUGHT
This is one of the largest 9k salary ranges that we have seen in a while and it will make this slate very interesting. It is not very often you have to play stars and scrubs in your cash contests, but that is exactly what we have here with such a top heavy slate where the main event cannot be stacked. In my mind that means whoever you play at the bottom of the slate is going to be very important, but I suppose I could be totally wrong. Only time will tell.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
