The Canadian card was a complete crash and burn. In fact, aside from Gillian, I don’t think a single good decision was made. I had been running pretty hot lately though, so it was about time I suppose. Choosing to avoid Jasmine felt like the perfect decision until she dropped 170, and while Mike Malott was looking good until he wasn’t, his score would not have been good even if he held on. Surprisingly I didn’t miss cash by much, but my tournament lineups were clustered near the bottom of every contest. It was a bad night.
This week we turn our attention back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 85. The prelims start at 4pm est and feature numerous up and coming fighters, including several with names containing multiple vowels so you will surely not want to miss those. The main card is set to begin at 7pm est and features a ranked middleweight fight between grappling specialist Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.
LOCK THEM IN
NATALIA SILVA – $9500 (-350)
Natalia Silva has looked like an absolute stud in her last several fights. I really doubt her ability to score consistently however, especially in a fight where her opponent is tough, like this one against veteran Viviane Araujo. That doesn’t mean that she should be ignored, and certainly not on a slate that has as many close fights as this one.
For me Silva will be a cash contest lock, and likely a lock in small-field single-entry contests as well since she should perform to at least an 85-90 point degree. I would entertain moving off of her in those tournaments however, as there are a couple other choices that would both save salary and have a higher ceiling in my opinion.
THEMBA GORIMBO – $9200 (-250)
Themba Gorimbo is lacking the safe floor that I would normally be hunting for my cash contests, due to his opponent Pete Rodriguez being hella magical. Aside from that though I think Gorimbo could be the top scorer in this salary range if he uses all of his tools, as he is clearly the more well rounded fighter. My prediction here is a late first round, or early second round, submission and I expect that to score in the 110 points neighborhood. I do expect his ownership to be fairly high, and for this fight to be pretty highly targeted as a whole, so you might be better off looking elsewhere in large field contests.
ROLL THE DICE
MOLLY MCCANN – $9300 (-263)
To be perfectly honest, I will probably be using McCann’s opponent, Diana Belbita, and be leaving Molly alone. There is no science behind that really, I am just a hater. If Molly wins and manages to get the takedowns she got in the first fight between these two she should score well though, so that earns her an honorable mention in the ‘roll the dice’ section. Personally, I think Belbita will at least last the three rounds though and that makes her the perfect punt for me in almost all the contests I play for such a low salary. If Belbita manages to win, then it becomes one of the better plays on the slate in my opinion. Either side you happen to be on, this is a good fight to target for DFS which is a rarity for women’s MMA.
GILBERT URBINA – $9000 (-202)
Gilbert Urbina is a fun fighter that has skills pretty much everywhere the fight goes. I am actually pretty high on this fight as a whole for the same reasons I mentioned above for Molly and Belbita. The favorite should score well if they win, and the dog has a low enough salary to not need much to make it a solid play. Both the Molly fight and this one share that one very important thing, they are both way closer fights in my opinion than the betting line suggests, which makes it somewhat of a gamble to play the more expensive fighter. My main concern for Urbina is that Radtke can make this fight boring like he did last time out and both of these guys score miserably. Not hoping for that at all, but it is somewhat of a realistic possibility. I will likely only use Urbina in cheap multiple entry contests that I play for recreation, and probably only in lineups that I don’t use Gorimbo in.
STAY AWAY
RANDY BROWN – $9100 (-280)
When comparing the betting line to the salary, Randy Brown should be one of the best plays on the slate, but I just can’t do it. Randy Brown has only scored over 100 points one time, and his opponent – Muslim Salikhov – is also notorious for slow paced, low scoring fights. Adding in that I don’t truly trust Randy Brown not to close the distance for Salikhov in a moment of excitement and his somewhat chinny history and I just want to stay as far away as I can from Mr. Brown. I am a fan though and will be pulling for him to win the fight, but he will not be sniffing my DFS lineups in any contests.
FINAL THOUGHT
This event kicks off a ton of non-stop action in the UFC world, through at least the middle of April I believe. I could not be more happy about that, but this slate is pretty sketchy in my opinion, so I plan on staying pretty reserved this week and keeping my entries to a minimum. I believe that there will be way better weeks both for entertainment and for finding an edge just on the horizon and I don’t want to enter into those in a miserable mood from a blunder on a slate like this. Just my personal feelings on the slate though, don’t let them stop you from going crazy.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
